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两场选举之后 乌克兰未来阴云密布

After the recent completion of elections in Ukraine there was hope the conflict in the east would ease, but that has not happened. Military convoys¹ from Russia are flowing into rebel-controlled areas again, raising fears of a new offensive and a long-term conflict.

乌克兰最近举行了选举之后，人们曾希望乌东地区的冲突能够缓解，但现实并非如此。来自俄罗斯的军车队再次涌入反政府武装控制的地区，这让人们担心，一场新的攻势将会开始，冲突将长期进行下去。

Late last month, Ukrainians in most of the country elected their most reform-minded and pro-European parliament ever. A week later, Russian-backed separatists in two small eastern enclaves held their own vote in an attempt to legitimize rebel leaders and their claims of independence.

上个月末，乌克兰大部分地区的选民投票选举出历年来最有改革头脑、最亲欧洲的议会。一个星期之后，俄罗斯支持的分离分子在东部两处地段自行投票，试图使反政府武装领袖以及他们宣布的独立合法化。

Ukraine and the international community rejected the results, but Russia recognized them -- and then began moving aggressively into the region.

乌克兰和国际社会拒绝接受这样的结果，但俄罗斯予以承认，随后又有了新的动作。

Russian convoys

European monitors, NATO and local residents confirm at least three convoys of Russian heavy weapons, equipment and troops in unmarked uniforms crossed into rebel-held Ukrainian territory in recent days. Russia denies the claims. But for many it is reminiscent of the invasion of Crimea earlier this year, which Russia also denied until it was over.

欧洲观察员、北约和当地居民证实，至少三支车队在最近几天进入了乌克兰境内，车上载有俄罗斯重型武器装备和制服不带标记的军人。俄罗斯否认这一说法。不过，对很多人来说，这是俄罗斯今年吞并克里米亚的重演。最初俄罗斯也不承认出兵，然后宣布既成事实。

Some observers believed the situation in eastern Ukraine had reached the stage of “frozen conflict.” However, the international director of the Royal United Services Institute, Jonathan Eyal, said that’s the wrong way to think about it.

一些观察人士曾相信，乌克兰东部的局势已经进入了所谓“冻结冲突”的阶段。不过，皇家联合军种研究所（the Royal United Services Institute）的国际事务主任乔纳森?埃亚勒（Jonathan Eyal）说，这种想法是错误的。

“It’s wrong to call them 'frozen conflicts.' They’re never frozen. They’re only frozen for Western governments that don’t want to look at them. Otherwise, these are conflicts that generate an enormous amount of hardship, bloodshed, victims, and they usually end up erupting in bigger wars, like we’ve seen in Georgia,” said Eyal.

他说：“将其称为‘冻结冲突’是错误的。这些冲突从来也没冻结过。只不过对那些不想看到冲突的西方政府来说，是冻结的。实际上，这些冲突造成了大量的苦难、流血和受害人，而且结局经常是爆发更大的战争，就像我们在格鲁吉亚看到的一样。”

During the summer, the Ukrainian military pushed the rebels back from the large areas they have been claiming, to small enclaves near the Russian border. Now, Russia and the rebels seem intent on reversing that.

乌克兰军队在夏天曾把反政府武装从大片宣称属于他们的地盘赶走，把他们逼退到靠近俄罗斯边界的小面积地段。如今，俄罗斯和反政府武装似乎一心要把局势翻转过来。

Moscow maneuvers²

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at that in recent days, saying Ukrainian and rebel authorities need to finalize³ the terms for disengaging their forces and restoring the cease-fire negotiated in September.

俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫最近作出了这番暗示。他说，乌克兰和反政府武装需要敲定双方脱离接触并恢复停火的最后细节。目前的停火协议是在9月达成的。

“The long-term objective is simple -- either the Ukraine enters into the Russian sphere of influence as a whole state, or if it remains⁴ in a Western sphere of influence, as the Russians see it, it would only be as a truncated⁵ Ukraine,” said Eyal.

埃亚勒说：“（俄罗斯的）长期目标很简单。或者乌克兰作为统一的国家加入俄罗斯势力范围，或者，如果乌克兰像俄罗斯感觉的那样留在西方势力范围的话，那只能是个被分裂的乌克兰。”

Already, the fighting has intensified⁶, with daily shelling from both sides and a mounting list of casualties, including civilians⁷.

战斗已经加剧了，双方每天都互相炮击，包括平民在内的伤亡人数不断增加。

Orysia Lutsevych, who follows European affairs at London’s Chatham House said, “The parties are still testing the strength of each other.”

卢特塞维奇（Orysia Lutsevych）是伦敦漆咸楼（Chatham House，皇家国际事务研究所）欧洲事务分析员。“各方还在探测彼此的实力。” 奥丽西娅?卢特塞维奇说。

She said the situation in rebel areas is “very grave,” with frequent shelling, and shortages of food and electricity. In part, Lutsevych blames the West’s policy toward Russia since its invasion of Georgia in 2008.

她说，反政府武装控制区的局势“非常严峻”，经常发生炮击，食品和电力短缺。卢特塞维奇认为，部分责任在于欧洲在俄罗斯2008年入侵格鲁吉亚后所采取的对俄政策。

“The West, in a way, was trying to compromise, didn’t want to make Russia too angry. And I think it was not a good strategy. This will only cost more in the long term,” said Lutsevych.

她说：“西方从某方面讲是想妥协，不想过分激怒俄罗斯。我不认为这是一条良策，它只会带来更多的长期损失。”

Ukraine’s leaders are left to try to pursue their strategic shift to the West, while managing the apparently⁸ worsening Russian-inspired crisis in the east -- a crisis that continues to take both a political and human toll⁹.

乌克兰领导人只能面对艰难时局，一方面努力面向西方进行战略转移，另一方面管控显然是由俄罗斯诱发并且越来越恶化的东部危机。这场危机继续在政治和人道方面造成沉重代价。