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各国尽最后努力推动伊朗核协议

Iranian and international negotiators convene¹ in Vienna Tuesday for a final push to try to reach agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by the November 24 deadline.

伊朗和国际谈判员本周将齐聚维也纳，为在11月24日的期限之前就伊朗核问题达成协议做最后的努力。

The issues are largely the same as they have been for more than a year, and the implications of not reaching a deal are potentially as dire² as ever.

一年多前的问题至今基本仍未解决，如果达不成协议，后果可能会很严重。

Scenes like these from past rounds of talks will play out again in front of the television cameras. Then, the negotiators will close the doors to debate how many centrifuges Iran will retain capable of enriching uranium that can be used to build a nuclear weapon, what sort of inspections³ will be allowed, and how quickly economic sanctions will be lifted.

谈判人员走进会场等与几轮对话的类似的场景将再次显现在电视画面中。之后，他们会关起门来讨论伊朗将保留多少有可能用于制造核武器的浓缩铀，允许何种检查措施，还有各方能多快取消对伊朗的经济制裁。

Jane Kinninmont, deputy head of the Middle East Program at London’s Chatham House, says "there is a great deal of seriousness on both sides to come up with some sort of deal.”

伦敦漆咸楼（Chatham House，即皇家国际事务研究所）的中东项目副主任简?金尼蒙特(Jane Kinninmont)认为，双方都有相当诚意达成某种协议。

She says although seven nations are involved, it mainly comes down to the United States and Iran.

她说，尽管有七个国家参与谈判，但最后是否达成协议主要取决于美国和伊朗。

“There is an interest on the part of both presidents in making a deal, and the feeling that if this opportunity is missed, they won’t see a similar opportunity in their lifetime,” she said.

她说：“我认为美伊总统都有意愿达成协议，并且双方都认为如果错失这个机会，可能在很长一段时间里都不会再出现类似的契机。”

Still, China and Russia are also at the negotiating table. They have presented a solid front with U.S. and European negotiators, but Russia, in particular, has a somewhat different view of Iran than the others. And its policy is a concern for the West, especially in light of its new, more aggressive policy in Europe.

中国和俄罗斯也将参与此次谈判。中俄都展示了与美国和欧洲谈判人员一致的立场，但是两国、特别是俄罗斯对伊核问题抱有与其他各国不同的态度。这令西方感到担忧，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯目前对欧洲咄咄逼人的新政策。

“Russia wants to have its alliance with Iran, but it doesn’t have a particular interest in seeing Iran really become a nuclear weapons power or become a much more independent actor,” said Kinninmont.

金尼蒙特说：“俄罗斯希望与伊朗结盟，但并不希望看到伊朗真正成为一个拥有核武器的国家或者发挥更独立的作用。”

She says the deal Russia just signed with Iran to reprocess its used nuclear fuel could help pave the way for an agreement. But Anoush Ehteshami, director of the international program at Durham University says it also raises concerns.

她说，俄罗斯最近与伊朗签订的协议可能为达成核协议铺平道路，这项协议允许俄罗斯加工伊朗的核废料。但是杜伦大学（Durham University）国际关系学教授阿纳什?艾特沙米（Anoush Ehteshami）表示，这也引发了一定的担忧。

“Is Russia unilaterally deriving⁴ deals that could provide Iran with ‘get out’ clauses outside of the negotiations⁵ that are happening with the P5+1? asked Ehteshami. "And for that, I don’t have an answer yet because this is still far too fresh.”

他说：“俄罗斯是否在‘五常加一’谈判框架外单方面为伊朗提供‘给出路’的条款？这个问题刚刚浮出水面，对此我还没有答案。”

More important for the coming round of negotiations is whether the sides can bridge the remaining gaps and then convince skeptics in their own governments to accept their compromises. Professor Ehteshami says in spite of the sometimes harsh rhetoric⁶ coming out of Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani will be able to do that.

即将展开的谈判中更重要的方面就是各方能否缩小分歧，并说服政府中对此表示怀疑的决策者接受折中方案。艾特沙米教授说，尽管德黑兰方面有时放出强硬言论，但是鲁哈尼总统有能力做到这一点。

“The negotiating team has a mandate⁷ from the people. They have given President Rouhani the mandate to see through this difficult phase," said Ehteshami. "And his mandate was, his platform was, to end Iran’s isolation⁸ and to open it up to the world.  The only way Iran can do that is to bring closure to the nuclear crisis.”

他说：“谈判队伍有人民授予的使命。他们把使命授予鲁哈尼总统，让他度过这个困难阶段。而他的使命、也是他竞选时的纲领是：结束伊朗的孤立，把伊朗向外部世界开放。而达成这个目标的唯一方法就是结束有关伊朗核危机的争议。”

The consequences of not doing that would be grave for Iran’s economy, hit by sanctions and low oil prices, and could potentially lead to military strikes on its nuclear facilities. That all adds to the urgency of reaching an agreement, but does not make it any easier.

如果不结束核争端，伊朗经济将面临严重后果。伊朗已经受到制裁和低油价的打击，核设施还有可能受到军事打击。这些因素都加剧了达成协议的紧迫性，但并不能使问题变得简单。