新闻周刊:美国专家预测,美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终(4)

But, Byman noted¹, such a move is akin² to "high stakes poker³" and could backfire. Not only would Iran be undermining its own ability to export oil, but the knock-on effects on the global economy could drive the international community to drop their skepticism and rally around the U.S. Thus far, Tehran has been able to portray⁴ itself as the reasonable party, Byman explained. "Close the straits and that changes."

但是，拜曼指出，这种做法类似于“豪赌扑克”，可能会适得其反。伊朗不仅会削弱自己的石油出口能力，还会对全球经济产生连锁反应，促使国际社会打消疑虑，团结在美国周围。拜曼解释说，到目前为止，德黑兰能够把自己描绘成一个理性的政党。“关闭海峡，情况就会改变。”

The most likely U.S. approach—if indeed war was to break out—would be a limited campaign of airstrikes, potentially alongside special operations raids and cyber attacks, Byman suggested. "I think the Trump⁵ administration is, in general, reluctant to expand the US presence on the ground in the Middle East, and do things that might include US casualties," he explained.

拜曼表示，如果真的爆发战争，美国最有可能采取的方式是发动有限的空袭，可能还会进行特别行动袭击和网络攻击。“我认为，总的来说，特朗普政府不愿意扩大美国在中东的势力，不愿意做可能包括美国伤亡在内的事情。”他解释说。

Even small victories for Iran could represent a victory. "Iran might achieve local victories," Byman noted, such as inflicting⁶ casualties on U.S. forces or even sinking a ship, "but the overall outcome of this conflict is pretty well-known."

对伊朗来说，即使是小小的胜利也可能代表着一场胜利。“伊朗可能取得局部胜利，”拜曼指出，例如造成美军伤亡，甚至击沉一艘船，“但这场冲突的总体结果是众所周知的。”

"It's a potential disaster for the Iranians militarily, but they might be able to achieve propaganda victories, which really matter," Byman added. "Victory is a political achievement," he suggested, but warned that the U.S. Navy will be ready, having prepared for this war for 30 years.

“这对伊朗的军事来说是一个潜在的灾难，但他们也许能够取得宣传上的胜利，这才是真正重要的，”拜曼补充道。“胜利是一项政治成就，”他建议，但警告说，美国海军将做好准备，他们为这场战争已经准备了30年。

Human, financial, political—a conflict would come with many costs. Freeman noted a war would likely lack the support of the U.S. public and Congress. "If asked to authorize⁷ such a war, Congress would almost certainly refuse. So, in addition to being a foreign policy crisis, the current tensions with Iran are also part of the constitutional crisis in the United States, where executive authority now vastly exceeds its constitutional mandate⁸."

人力、财力、政治上的冲突都会带来很多代价。弗里曼指出，战争可能会缺乏美国公众和国会的支持。“如果被要求授权发动这样一场战争，国会几乎肯定会拒绝。因此，除了外交政策危机，目前与伊朗的紧张关系也是美国宪法危机的一部分，美国的行政权力现在大大超过了宪法授权。”

While both sides have vowed⁹ they are not seeking conflict, Byman warned that "both sides may take steps that make the situation more dangerous." New military deployments, force preparations and harsh words may all be designed to warn opponents, but could be taken as direct threats. "The message they're trying to send is, 'Don't mess with us,'" Byman explained. "But the message could be interpreted as, 'We're coming after you.'"

虽然双方都誓言不寻求冲突，但拜曼警告说，“双方都可能采取措施，使局势更加危险。”新的军事部署、部队准备和严厉的言辞可能都是为了警告对手，但也可能被视为直接威胁。“他们想传达的信息是，‘别惹我们，’”拜曼解释道。“但这则信息可以被解读为，‘我们就在你后面。’”

1 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

2 akin   

adj.同族的，类似的

参考例句：

• She painted flowers and birds pictures akin to those of earlier feminine painters.她画一些同早期女画家类似的花鸟画。
• Listening to his life story is akin to reading a good adventure novel.听他的人生故事犹如阅读一本精彩的冒险小说。

3 poker   

n.扑克；vt.烙制

参考例句：

• He was cleared out in the poker game.他打扑克牌，把钱都输光了。
• I'm old enough to play poker and do something with it.我打扑克是老手了，可以玩些花样。

4 portray   

v.描写，描述；画(人物、景象等)

参考例句：

• It is difficult to portray feelings in words.感情很难用言语来描写。
• Can you portray the best and worst aspects of this job?您能描述一下这份工作最好与最坏的方面吗？

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 inflicting   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He was charged with maliciously inflicting grievous bodily harm. 他被控蓄意严重伤害他人身体。
• It's impossible to do research without inflicting some pain on animals. 搞研究不让动物遭点罪是不可能的。

7 authorize   

v.授权，委任；批准，认可

参考例句：

• He said that he needed to get his supervisor to authorize my refund.他说必须让主管人员批准我的退款。
• Only the President could authorize the use of the atomic bomb.只有总统才能授权使用原子弹。

8 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

9 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。