Could a British Vote to Leave EU Lead to Others?

AS IT IS 2016-06-15 Could a British Vote to Leave EU Lead to Others?

Britons are set to vote this month on whether to remain in the European Union.

Prime Minister David Cameron called for the vote, set for June 23. Cameron opposes calls for a “Brexit” -- for Britain to exit or withdraw from the 28-member EU. He says the move would hurt the country economically.

On Friday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble agreed with Cameron. He told Der Spiegel magazine that “it would be a miracle if a withdrawal¹ of Britain would come without economic disadvantages.''

However, the vote has brought to light other countries’ dissatisfaction with the European Union.

New research suggests public approval of the EU has fallen sharply across the continent.

This has raised concerns in Brussels, the home of the EU’s headquarters. Officials there fear a contagion² effect in which people in other EU member states demand similar votes.

The American-based Pew Research Center contacted 10,000 people across Europe to find out what they thought about being in the EU. Their answers showed that Britain is not alone in having deep concerns about the group.

Pew researchers say people in France looked at the EU more critically than their English-speaking neighbors to the north.

Only 38 percent of those asked had a positive or good opinion of the EU. That is sharply down from 69 percent in 2004.

In Spain, the public approval rate has fallen from 80 percent to 47 percent over the past nine years.

Tim Oliver is with the London School of Economics. He says a British decision to leave the EU could lead to demands for similar popular referendums across Europe. He adds, however, that nations will be watching Britain if it does choose to exit the EU.

“However, whether or not they succeed depends on one, what happens to the UK. If the UK struggles, then that sets quite a powerful message to the rest of the European Union.

Oliver thinks that a Brexit would take a long time and could create bitterness.

“The rest of the European Union is looking to either punish the United Kingdom for withdrawing, so there has to be an economic cost. The UK can’t withdraw and not feel any punishment, any costs and so forth³, and get a new relationship with the EU, or else that might encourage other member states to do the same thing.”

Pew researchers say much of the disapproval⁴ of the EU is related to how it has dealt with the current refugee crisis.

More than one million refugees and migrants arrived in Greece last year. Disapproval of the EU’s policies on migrants is highest there, at 94 percent.

Oliver says the growing number of new arrivals has pushed the EU to its limits.

“They haven’t solved each crisis, they’ve just managed to cope and move on, and hope they’ll find a solution later on. If several crises align⁵ at the same time, that puts the EU in uncharted territory and that is quite dangerous.”

In Britain, current and former officials are making their case on EU membership to likely voters. Former British Foreign Secretary William Hague spoke⁶ to experts at Chatham House in London recently. He warned that a British exit could cause further divisions that would weaken Western nations -- something that ought to be avoided at all costs.

However, as disapproval of the EU grows, experts say a British exit could have much wider consequences both inside and outside Europe.

Words in This Story

disadvantages – n. something that causes difficulty

contagion – n. the spread of something that is passed from one person or group to another

bitterness – n. painful or unpleasant feelings

align – v. to put in place, to line up

consequences – n. results

referendum – n. a popular vote on legislation usually on one issue

exit – v. to leave

1 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

2 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

3 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

4 disapproval   

n.反对，不赞成

参考例句：

• The teacher made an outward show of disapproval.老师表面上表示不同意。
• They shouted their disapproval.他们喊叫表示反对。

5 align   

vt.使成一线，结盟，调节；vi.成一线，结盟

参考例句：

• Align the ruler and the middle of the paper.使尺子与纸张的中部成一条直线。
• There are signs that the prime minister is aligning himself with the liberals.有迹象表明首相正在与自由党人结盟。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。