VOA标准英语2014--民主党忧心美国国会选举的投票率

 

Democrats¹ Fear Poor Voter Turnout in November 民主党忧心美国国会选举的投票率

U.S. congressional elections are less than six months away but Democrats are already worried their voters will not be able to match the intensity² of Republicans in November.

Light voter turnout is the norm in non-presidential election years and it’s already a concern for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats in 2014.

The president has been trying to whip up enthusiasm among his core supporters during some recent speeches around the country including a campaign fundraiser in California.  

“We’re going to have to make sure that we are coming out with the same urgency and the same enthusiasm that we typically show during presidential years,” he said. “ That’s what we are going to need.”

Republicans are counting on dissatisfaction with the president and his signature health care law to drive their voters to the polls, and analyst³ Charlie Cook said, for the moment, that gives them the upper hand looking ahead to November.

Cook said one of the keys to recent midterm elections is that Republican voters are much more likely to turn out than Democrats.

Democrats, he said, do much better in presidential election years like 2008 and 2012.

“In a presidential election year the turnout is big, it’s diverse and it looks more or less like the country,” Cook said.  “But in midterm elections when the turnout is smaller, it is whiter, it is more conservative, it’s more Republican.  It’s just real different.”

Cook said that Democrats have been trying to turn around the public’s negative perception of the Obama health care law, known as the Affordable⁴ Care Act.

But Cook said don’t hold your breath on that happening anytime soon.

“Americans may grow to love the Affordable Care Act but it sure as heck is not likely to happen between now and November and I think the odds⁵ of that happening between now and 2016 are relatively⁶ small,” he said.

Democrats' motivational challenge

President Obama’s recent poll ratings have been among the lowest of his time in the White House.

Democrats are still recovering from the chaotic⁷ rollout of the health care law.

And Republicans seem energized⁹ to vote against the president and Obamacare in November.

All this adds up to a tall order for Democrats hoping to get voters out to the polls, said Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake.

“Turnout is going to be a huge issue for the Democrats, particularly younger people who are very discouraged about the economy, unmarried women, African-Americans, Latinos, all that are core constituencies for us,” Lake said.

Lake said that the very groups the Democrats need to energize⁸ have not felt the improvement in the U.S. economy.  She added that the recent focus on Ukraine and Russia has caused a drop in public approval of the president’s handling of foreign policy, which had long been a strength in public opinion surveys for the Obama White House.

Lake said Republicans will probably have a turnout advantage this year, especially with older white voters who tend to turn out in midterm elections more than other voting blocs¹⁰.

In short, Lake said it looks like a “tough election cycle” for Democrats in November, though she believes Democrats can still hold on to their Senate majority by helping¹¹ incumbents¹² in key states.

Republicans excited but wary¹³

Many Republicans are confident of their chances in November.

But they also know they have been disappointed in recent elections when their expectations fell short, especially about retaking control of the Senate.

In recent years, Tea Party-backed candidates have often failed in the general election, depriving Republicans of seats they otherwise would have won with more centrist candidates.

The battle between the Republican establishment and the Tea Party continues to play out this year with the establishment doing better so far.

The one exception was in Nebraska where Tea Party favorite and university president Ben Sasse won the Republican nomination¹⁴ for the U.S. Senate by defeating four other contenders.

In terms of overall election strategy for 2014, House Speaker John Boehner says he wants his party to remain focused on the president, the health care law and jobs and the economy in the months leading up to November.

“I think it takes some audacity¹⁵ to call for greater cooperation amongst nations on the economy when they won’t even focus on the jobs issues that we’ve got right here in America that need to be resolved,” he said.

Cook and other analysts¹⁶ predict Republicans will hold their majority in the House of Representatives and may even pick up a few seats in November.

Most of the attention will focus on the 36 Senate races where Republicans are favored to pick up seats currently held by Democrats.

The problem for Democrats is that several of the key Senate races are taking place in states where Republican Mitt¹⁷ Romney rolled up big victory margins¹⁹ in the 2012 presidential race, like Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Democrats have very few opportunities to win Republican seats.

Their best chance may come in Kentucky where veteran Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, faces a strong Democratic challenge from Stephanie Lundergan Grimes.  And that is assuming McConnell beats back a primary challenge from Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin, who trails by a wide margin¹⁸ in recent polls.

Public opinion analyst Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute says Republicans sense they have their best chance in years to win back control of the Senate.  

“These Senate contests are such high stakes contests,” Bowman said. “The Republicans would desperately²⁰ like to win control of the Senate and actually have a decent margin in the Senate in order to try to move some of their own issues along.”

All 435 House seats and 36 of the 100 Senate seats are at stake in November along with 36 state governorships.

Cook said if the Republicans succeed in holding all their own Senate seats they have an excellent chance to gain the six additional seats they need to claim a majority in the Senate next January.

1 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

5 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

6 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

7 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

8 energize   

vt.给予(某人或某物)精力、能量

参考例句：

• It is used to energize the city.它的作用是为城市供给能量。
• This is a great way to energize yourself and give yourself more power!这种方法非常棒，可以激活你的能量，让你有更多的活力！

9 energized   

v.给予…精力，能量( energize的过去式和过去分词 )；使通电

参考例句：

• We are energized by love if we put our energy into loving. 如果我们付出能量去表现爱意，爱就会使我们充满活力。 来自辞典例句
• I am completely energized and feeling terrific. 我充满了活力，感觉非常好。 来自辞典例句

10 blocs   

n.集团，联盟( bloc的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The division of Europe into warring blocs produces ever-increasing centrifugal stress. 把欧洲分为作战集团产生了越来越大的离心效果。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The policy of the two blocs was played out. 把世界分为两个集团的政策已经过时了。 来自辞典例句

11 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

12 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

13 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

14 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

15 audacity   

n.大胆，卤莽，无礼

参考例句：

• He had the audacity to ask for an increase in salary.他竟然厚着脸皮要求增加薪水。
• He had the audacity to pick pockets in broad daylight.他竟敢在光天化日之下掏包。

16 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

17 mitt   

n.棒球手套，拳击手套，无指手套；vt.铐住，握手

参考例句：

• I gave him a baseball mitt for his birthday.为祝贺他的生日，我送给他一只棒球手套。
• Tom squeezed a mitt and a glove into the bag.汤姆把棒球手套和手套都塞进袋子里。

18 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

19 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

20 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。