2019年经济学人 2018年股票市场的喜与悲 (1)

 

One day in 1985 P. J. O'Rourke, an American humourist, invited a few friends to his home to take ecstasy¹. He wrote about the experience for Rolling Stone.

1985年的某天美国幽默家奥罗克邀请了几位朋友去他家嗑药。他将此次经历写下来交给了滚石乐队。

For a veteran of the Age of Aquarius, the side-effects of recreational drugs—

对于和平时代的一名老兵而言，软性毒品的副作用—

the frequent toilet trips; the grimy feeling on the skin; the fitful sleep later on—were familiar. It was all rather underwhelming.

尿频；感觉身上脏兮兮的；然后时睡时醒—大同小异。都相当无趣。

"Drugs are a one-man birthday party," he explained. "You don't get any presents you didn't bring."

“毒品是只有一个人参加的生日派对，”他解释道。“你不带就没有礼物。”

Those who make a living navigating² financial markets might understandably be reaching for the happy pills, or at least a couple of painkillers³.

以操纵金融市场为生的那些人或许会拿一些逍遥丸，或者至少是要两三片止疼药。

For them, 2018 was a rotten year. Stockmarket losses were spread widely across the globe.

对他们来说，2018年是糟糕的一年。股票市场损失蔓延全球。

The total return—capital gains or losses plus dividends—from the S&P 500 index of leading American shares was negative for the first time in a decade.

根据标准普尔500指数，今年美国股市总收益（资本收益或损失加上股息）首次呈负数。

Other markets were worse, notably⁴ China's, where the Shanghai index fell by a quarter. Safe assets eclipsed risky⁵ assets.

其他市场更糟糕，尤其是中国股市，上证指数下跌四分之一。安全性资产使风险资产黯然失色。

Treasury⁶ bonds outperformed stocks. There were worse places to be than in gold, and few better than in cash.

国库债券表现优于股票。还有比黄金表现糟糕的市场，很少有市场的表现优于现金。

The source of much of the red ink is concern about the world economy.

赤字的源头关乎世界经济。

China's economy is weaker; there are growing fears of a recession in America this year.

中国经济更加疲弱；今年对美国衰退的恐惧日益增长。

Yet the truly far-sighted investor⁷ can see through such ups and downs.

但真正有远见的投资者可以识破这些起起伏伏。

Indeed for people with a long-term saving goal, such as retirement⁸ or children's college fees, there is an upside to falling stock prices.

确实，对于那些有长期储蓄目标（如退休或孩子的大学学费）的人来说，股票下跌有一个优势。

Over the business cycle, stockmarket returns are also like Mr O'Rourke's one-person birthday party.

在商业周期中，股市收益也像是奥罗克先生一个人的生日聚会。

Bad returns today imply better returns in the future and vice⁹ versa.

今天的不良收益暗示着未来更好的回报，反之亦然。

For those looking to build their stockholdings through recessions and recoveries, falling asset prices are good news.

对于那些指望通过经济衰退和恢复持股的人来说，资产价格下跌是个好消息。

That is not everyone. If your job is to manage other people's money, you have probably just had a terrible 12 months.

这并不适合每一个人。如果你的工作是管理别人的钱，那么这12个月你或许过得很煎熬。

It is not just that fund-management fees are typically a fixed¹⁰ proportion of asset values and so lower prices mean lower earnings¹¹ (though there is that).

不仅仅是因为资金管理费用占资产价值的固定比例，因此更低的价格意味着更低的收入（虽然确实如此）。

There is also the sense of futility¹². Such professionals give a lot of thought to asset allocation—

还有一种无助的感觉。这些专业人员给出了很多关于资产配置建议—

how much should go into stocks or bonds; how much in America or elsewhere.

买多少股票或债券；在美国或其他地方投多少。

For all that effort, vanishingly few allocations did better than your grandmother's bank account.

付出所有努力之后，你的大部分配置款还没有你祖母的银行存款多。

1 ecstasy   

n.狂喜，心醉神怡，入迷

参考例句：

• He listened to the music with ecstasy.他听音乐听得入了神。
• Speechless with ecstasy,the little boys gazed at the toys.小孩注视着那些玩具，高兴得说不出话来。

2 navigating   

v.给（船舶、飞机等）引航，导航( navigate的现在分词 )；（从海上、空中等）横越；横渡；飞跃

参考例句：

• These can also be very useful when navigating time-based documents, such as video and audio. 它对于和时间有关的文档非常有用，比如视频和音频文档。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Vehicles slowed to a crawl on city roads, navigating slushy snow. 汽车在市区路上行驶缓慢，穿越泥泞的雪地。 来自互联网

3 painkillers   

n.止痛药( painkiller的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The doctor gave him some painkillers to ease the pain. 医生给了他一些止疼片以减缓疼痛。 来自辞典例句
• The primary painkillers - opiates, like OxyContin - are widely feared, misunderstood and underused. 人们对主要的镇痛药——如鸦片剂奥施康定——存在广泛的恐惧、误解，因此没有充分利用。 来自时文部分

4 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

5 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

8 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

9 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

10 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

11 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

12 futility   

n.无用

参考例句：

• She could see the utter futility of trying to protest. 她明白抗议是完全无用的。
• The sheer futility of it all exasperates her. 它毫无用处，这让她很生气。