2019年经济学人 书评--《一个不可能实现的梦想:里根,戈尔巴乔夫和一个没有原子弹的世界》(1)

 

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Book Review

书评

Cold-war summitry

冷战峰会

Dancing on ice

冰上起舞

An Impossible Dream: Reagan, Gorbachev, and a World Without the Bomb.

《一个不可能实现的梦想:里根、戈尔巴乔夫和一个没有原子弹的世界》

By Guillaume Serina.

此书作者：纪尧姆·瑟利纳

A world without nuclear weapons still seems far-fetched. But in October 1986 it was closer than many realised. In his book, Guillaume Serina tells the tantalising story of the Reykjavik summit between the Soviet¹ and American leaders, Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, who came within a whisker of a ten-year deal to eliminate both countries’ arsenals².

一个没有核武器的世界似乎仍然遥不可及。但在1986年10月，这一数字比许多人意识到的还要接近。纪尧姆?瑟利纳在书中讲述了苏联和美国领导人米哈伊尔?戈尔巴乔夫和罗纳德?里根在雷克雅维克举行峰会时引人入胜的故事。里根差一点就与苏联达成了一项为期10年的消除两国军火库的协议。

Agreement was desirable yet impossible. Both sides were aware that they had far more nuclear warheads and missiles than they needed. The Soviet side also knew that the cost of maintaining nuclear weapons was crippling the economy. Less fully³ appreciated was the fragility of the balance of terror, which was at risk less from warmongering⁴ than from misunderstandings, glitches⁵ or accidents. On several occasions during the cold war, only thin threads of luck and good judgment⁶ averted⁷ the apocalypse. But agreement meant crossing icesheets of mistrust. And on the American side, Reagan’s fixation on the Strategic Defence Initiative, or Star Wars—space-based missile-busting lasers—proved an insuperable obstacle.

达成协议是可取的，但却是不可能的。双方都意识到，他们拥有的核弹头和导弹远远超过了所需。苏联方面也知道，维持核武器的成本正在损害经济。人们没有充分认识到的是恐怖平衡的脆弱，这种脆弱与其说是由于战争煽动，不如说是由于误解、故障或事故。在冷战期间，只有几次运气和良好的判断力才避免了这场灾难。但达成协议意味着跨越不信任的冰原。而在美国方面，里根对战略防御计划(即“星球大战”)的执着——即以太空为基础的导弹摧毁激光——被证明是一个无法逾越的障碍。

The Soviets⁸ offered the United States a big concession⁹: to let it continue with “laboratory” testing of this new scheme. The definition of that proviso could have been stretched to meet all practical requirements (33 years later, the Star Wars technology is nowhere near useful deployment). But Reagan had set his heart on a futuristic system that would make his country safe for ever, and did not want to return home seeming to have given it away. As Roald Sagdeev, a Soviet nuclear expert, puts it: “The Americans oversold the Strategic Defence Initiative, and the Russians overbought it.”

苏联给了美国一个很大的让步:让美国继续对这个新计划进行“实验室”测试。这个附带条件的定义本可以扩展到满足所有实际需求(33年后，《星球大战》技术还远未得到有效的部署)。但是里根已经把注意力放在了一个未来主义的系统上，这个系统将使他的国家永远安全，他不想回家，似乎已经放弃了它。正如苏联核专家罗尔德?萨迪夫所言:“美国人超售战略防御计划，而俄罗斯人却买超了。”

1 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

2 arsenals   

n.兵工厂，军火库( arsenal的名词复数 )；任何事物的集成

参考例句：

• We possess-each of us-nuclear arsenals capable of annihilating humanity. 我们两国都拥有能够毁灭全人类的核武库。 来自辞典例句
• Arsenals are factories that produce weapons. 军工厂是生产武器的工厂。 来自互联网

3 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

4 warmongering   

[法] 煽动战争

参考例句：

• What's warmongering got to do with Freedom Road? 自由之路与煽动战争有什么关系？ 来自电影对白
• The speech hits out at warmongering. 这篇演说对煽动战争的行为大加鞭笞。 来自互联网

5 glitches   

n.小过失，差错( glitch的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Manufacturing glitches have limited the factory's output. 生产中的故障影响了该厂的产量。 来自辞典例句
• Another kind of period variation,\"Glitches,\" are seen in several pulsars. 在几个脉冲星中还看到了周期的另一种变化，即“自转突快”现象。 来自辞典例句

6 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

7 averted   

防止，避免( avert的过去式和过去分词 )； 转移

参考例句：

• A disaster was narrowly averted. 及时防止了一场灾难。
• Thanks to her skilful handling of the affair, the problem was averted. 多亏她对事情处理得巧妙，才避免了麻烦。

8 soviets   

苏维埃（Soviet的复数形式）

参考例句：

• A public challenge could provoke the Soviets to dig in. 公开挑战会促使苏联人一意孤行。
• The Soviets proposed the withdrawal of American ballistic-missile submarines from forward bases. 苏联人建议把美国的弹道导弹潜艇从前沿基地撤走。

9 concession   

n.让步，妥协；特许(权)

参考例句：

• We can not make heavy concession to the matter.我们在这个问题上不能过于让步。
• That is a great concession.这是很大的让步。