2020年经济学人 新兴市场需要国际货币基金组织的援助(1)

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

The IMF

国际货币基金组织

Break the glass

击破玻璃

Emerging markets are in turmoil¹. The IMF must step in to help

新兴市场一片混乱。国际货币基金组织必须介入帮助

Emerging markets are battling a ?nancial crisis as well as a public-health emergency. Since late January foreign investors², desperate to shed risk, have been withdrawing their cash from poor countries. At the same time falling global trade, depressed³ commodities prices and vanishing tourists have put export revenues, and hence the supply of foreign currency, into free fall. This has left many countries struggling to pay for imports and to service their dollar-denominated debts, let alone fund emergency health or economic programmes. Over 90 countries have approached the IMF, the lender of last resort for governments, to ask for help.

新兴市场正在应对金融危机和突发公共卫生事件。自1月底以来，急于规避风险的外国投资者一直在从贫困国家撤出资金。与此同时，全球贸易下滑、大宗商品价格下跌和游客减少，导致出口收入以及外汇供应大幅下降。这使得许多国家难以支付进口和偿还以美元计价的债务，更不用说为紧急卫生或经济计划提供资金了。超过90个国家已经向政府的最后贷款人——国际货币基金组织寻求帮助。

The fund will need to respond on an unprecedented⁴ scale. The $96bn investors have already withdrawn⁵ from emerging-market stocks and bonds dwarfs⁶ past capital out?ows, according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry group. So far this year the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the South African rand have lost nearly a quarter of their value against the dollar. Though few countries have sounded the alarm in public, the fund estimates that emerging markets will need at least $2.5trn over the course of the pandemic.

国际货币基金组织将需要以前所未有的规模做出反应。根据行业组织国际金融协会的数据，960亿美元的投资者已经从新兴市场股市和债市撤资，令过去的资本外流相形见绌。今年迄今为止，巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索和南非兰特兑美元汇率已下跌近四分之一。尽管很少有国家公开发出警告，但据国际货币基金组织估计，在这次疫情期间，新兴市场将需要至少2.5万亿美元。

Some of that help is coming from America’s Federal Reserve. It is running “swap⁷ lines” with a select few central banks, which have so far borrowed about $400bn while posting their own currencies as collateral⁸. The Fed is also allowing most central banks to temporarily exchange any Treasuries⁹ that they hold for dollars. But among emerging-market central banks only Brazil, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea are included in the swap lines, and few poor countries have a ready supply of Treasuries. So most of the burden will fall on the IMF which, unlike the Fed, cannot create dollars at will. The fund says it has about $1trn on tap, about a ?fth of which is already committed. Even this may not be enough for the job if large economies like Nigeria, South Africa or Turkey join the legions of small countries seeking help. Another problem is that a big chunk¹⁰ of the fund’s resources is borrowing from its members that must be reauthorised this year, creating uncertainty¹¹.

其中一些帮助来自美联储。美联储正在与少数几家央行进行“互换协议”，这些央行迄今已借入约4000亿美元，同时将本币作为抵押品。美联储还允许大多数央行暂时将持有的美国国债换成美元。但在新兴市场国家的央行中，只有巴西、墨西哥、新加坡和韩国被纳入了货币互换协议，而且几乎没有贫穷国家有现成的国债供应。因此，大部分负担将落在国际货币基金组织身上。与美联储不同，国际货币基金组织不能随意创造美元。国际货币基金组织表示，现有大约1万亿美元的资金可供随时使用，其中约五分之一已经到位。如果像尼日利亚、南非或土耳其这样的大型经济体加入到寻求帮助的小国大军中，那么这些资金可能还不够。还有一个问题是，国际货币基金组织的很大一部分资源都是从成员国那里借来的，而这些资金今年必须重新获得批准，从而产生了不确定性。

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

4 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

5 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

6 dwarfs   

n.侏儒，矮子（dwarf的复数形式）vt.（使）显得矮小（dwarf的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Shakespeare dwarfs other dramatists. 莎士比亚使其他剧作家相形见绌。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The new building dwarfs all the other buildings in the town. 新大楼使城里所有其他建筑物都显得矮小了。 来自辞典例句

7 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

8 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

9 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

10 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

11 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。