2020年经济学人 经济统计学——危机措施(1)

An air-conditioner that overheats in hot weather, or an insurance policy that fails to pay out after a natural disaster:

天气炎热时过热的空调，或者是自然灾害后无法获赔的保险单：

some things do not work as expected, just when you need them most. So it is with official statistics in the pandemic.

就在你最需要的时候，有些东西无法发挥预期的作用。疫情中的官方数据也一样。

As they try to gauge¹ the depth of the downturn,

当他们试图衡量经济下滑的深度时，

policymakers and investors² are keener to pore over the latest GDP figures than ever. But estimates have rarely been as uncertain.

立法者和投资者比以前任何时候都热衷于解读最新的GDP数据。但是预测很少出现不确定性。

Many economists⁴ expect the initial estimate of America's output growth in the first quarter of 2020,

很多经济学家预测，4月29日，美国公布的对2020年第一季度产出增长的

published on April 29th, to be revised downwards⁵ eventually.

初步估计最终会下调。

Some of that may arrive as soon as May 28th, after The Economist³ went to press, when an update to the figures was due.

其中一些数据可能会在5月28日本刊付印之后公布，届时将更新数据。

Analysts⁶ at Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckon that early estimates might capture only around 60% of the economic drag from the coronavirus.

高盛投资公司的分析师认为，早期预测可能只占冠状病毒对经济影响的约60%。

If the true year-on-year fall in America's GDP is around 12% in the second quarter,

如果第二季度，美国GDP的真实同比下降12%，

as many economists expect, the initial release might indicate a decline of only 7-8%.

正如很多经济学家预测，最初公布的数据可能显示降幅仅为7-8%。

Statisticians are well aware of the uncertainty⁷.

统计学家很清楚这种不确定性。

Britain's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has mulled introducing confidence intervals⁸ for its estimates-but no one knows quite how wide the bands should be.

英国国家统计局（ONS）已经考虑为其经济预测引入可靠区间，但是没人之间区间宽度应该设置为多少。

France's statistical⁹ office says that its first-quarter estimate of GDP is "fragile". Many are trying to fill in data gaps where they can.

法国统计局表示，其对第一季度GDP的预测很“脆弱”。很多人员仍在尽力填补数据缺口。

Estimates of GDP during downturns tend to be revised downwards significantly.

在经济下行时期，对GDP的预测往往会大幅下调。

Response rates to surveys often fall in slumps¹⁰; because firms doing badly are particularly likely to stop responding,

各行业对调查的响应率通常会急剧下降；因为经营不善的公司尤其有可能停止回应，

the data gleaned¹¹ paint a misleadingly optimistic picture.

因此收集到的数据可能会描绘出一幅乐观的场景，误导大家。

Though statistics offices are encouraged, if not required by law, to produce estimates quickly, many data sources are only published with long lags.

虽然统计部门受到鼓励（如果法律没有要求）要迅速做出预测，但很多数据源的公布非常滞后。

Wonks can temporarily fill in figures for the missing sectors¹², but their techniques for doing so may not be up to scratch during periods of economic stress.

学究们可以临时填补缺失部门的数字，但在经济紧张时期，他们的这项技法达不到要求。

1 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 downwards   

adj./adv.向下的（地），下行的（地）

参考例句：

• He lay face downwards on his bed.他脸向下伏在床上。
• As the river flows downwards,it widens.这条河愈到下游愈宽。

6 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

7 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

8 intervals   

n.[军事]间隔( interval的名词复数 )；间隔时间；[数学]区间；（戏剧、电影或音乐会的）幕间休息

参考例句：

• The forecast said there would be sunny intervals and showers. 预报间晴，有阵雨。
• Meetings take place at fortnightly intervals. 每两周开一次会。

9 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

10 slumps   

萧条期( slump的名词复数 )； （个人、球队等的）低潮状态； （销售量、价格、价值等的）骤降； 猛跌

参考例句：

• Deflation could emerge from simultaneous slumps in the world's three major economies. 如果世界经济三大主体同时衰退，通货紧缩就会出现。
• This is the cycle of economic booms and slumps. 这是经济繁荣和经济萧条的周期变化。

11 gleaned   

v.一点点地收集（资料、事实）( glean的过去式和过去分词 )；（收割后）拾穗

参考例句：

• These figures have been gleaned from a number of studies. 这些数据是通过多次研究收集得来的。
• A valuable lesson may be gleaned from it by those who have eyes to see. 明眼人可从中记取宝贵的教训。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

12 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》