2020年经济学人 美国犯罪数据激增?(1)

United States

美国版块

Crime statistics

犯罪统计

Few signs of a surge

几乎无激增迹象

Despite a recent uptick in violence, fears that America is experiencing a serious crime wave are overblown

尽管最近的美国暴力事件有小幅增加，但是人们对美国正经历严重犯罪浪潮的担忧被夸大了。

The death of George Floyd under the knee of a Minneapolis police officer on May 25th has sparked large anti-racist protests in cities across America. “Defund the police”, a call to reallocate some of the money spent on law enforcement to other services, is becoming a mainstream¹ slogan on the left. President Donald Trump² claims that the “anti-police crusade…has led to a shocking explosion of shootings, killings³, murders and heinous⁴ crimes of violence.” On July 22nd he announced he would send a surge of federal agents to police big cities, including Chicago and Albuquerque (although those that had been deployed⁵ in Portland, Oregon, are starting to leave.)

5月25日，明尼阿波利斯的一名警察跪杀了乔治·弗洛伊德，这一事件导致美国各城市爆发了大规模的反种族主义抗议活动。“撤资警察”成为了激进左派的一个主流口号，该口号旨在呼吁将用于执法的部分资金重新分配给其他部门。总统唐纳德·特朗普声称，“这场反警察运动……发生了令人震惊的枪击、杀戮和令人发指的暴力犯罪。”7月22日，特朗普宣布将派遣大批联邦探员前往芝加哥，阿尔伯克基地区等警察多的城市，（尽管部署在俄勒冈州波特兰市的联邦探员正在开始撤离。）

But the evidence that America is experiencing a major crime wave is mixed at best. Official national crime statistics, compiled by the FBI, are generally published with over a year’s delay, so researchers have to turn to other sources. David Abrams of the University of Pennsylvania, pulls together data from some two dozen major cities on citycrimestats.com. His figures show that so far this year crime is actually down by around 10% compared with the same period in 2015-19.

但是能够表明美国正在经历一场严重犯罪浪潮的证据十分混杂。美国联邦调查局编制的官方国家犯罪统计数据通常要推迟一年才能公布，因此研究人员不得不转向其他数据来源。宾夕法尼亚大学的大卫·阿勃拉姆斯收集了来自20多个主要城市的数据发布在citycrimestats.com网站上。他的数据显示，今年到目前为止，犯罪率实际上比2015-19年同期下降了10%左右。

It is possible that this drop is simply an artefact of reporting. Covid-19 has meant fewer people on the streets, hence fewer potential witnesses who might call the police. However, Mr Abrams notes that the share of police stops which have resulted in arrests has not changed, which suggests that the drop in crime is genuine. It seems even drug dealers⁶ have been adhering to social-distancing guidelines.

犯罪率的下降可能只是一种人为的报道。新冠肺炎意味着街上的人更少，因此可能报警的潜在证人也会更少。然而，阿勃拉姆斯指出，进行拘留的警察局的数量没有改变，这表明犯罪率确实在下降。似乎连毒贩都在遵守社会距离准则。

1 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 killings   

谋杀( killing的名词复数 )； 突然发大财，暴发

参考例句：

• His statement was seen as an allusion to the recent drug-related killings. 他的声明被视为暗指最近与毒品有关的多起凶杀案。
• The government issued a statement condemning the killings. 政府发表声明谴责这些凶杀事件。

4 heinous   

adj.可憎的，十恶不赦的

参考例句：

• They admitted to the most heinous crimes.他们承认了极其恶劣的罪行。
• I do not want to meet that heinous person.我不想见那个十恶不赦的人。

5 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

6 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。