2020年经济学人 美国大选如何影响股市(1)

America's presidential election

美国大选

Braced¹ for impact

准备就绪

How investors² are hedging against the risk of post-election chaos³

投资者如何对冲选举后混乱的风险

Election years are not often the best times for stockmarket investors. Over the past 90 years shares included in the S&P 500, an index of America's biggest firms, have returned an average of about 8.5% a year. The twelve months leading up to each of the 22 presidential elections in that time have been leaner affairs, returning just 6%. Investors tend not to care whether the victorious⁴ candidate is Democratic or Republican, but they do like familiarity—returns are a shade higher in years when incumbents⁵ are returned to office. The democratic cycle, for all its virtues⁶, tends to bring with it a dose of uncertainty⁷—first about who will win and then about what that victor will do. And uncertainty tends to make financiers nervous.

对于股市投资者来说，选举年通常不是最好的时机。在过去的90年里，包括标普500(美国最大公司的指数)在内的股票平均年回报率约为8.5%。在这22届总统选举之前的12个月里，每一届的选举都是比较轻松的，回报率只有6%。投资者并不关心获胜的候选人是民主党人还是共和党人，但他们确实喜欢这种“惯例”——即当现任者重掌大权时，回报率会略微高一些。民主党的循环虽优点多多，但往往会带来一些不确定因素——首先是谁会赢，其次是赢了的那个人接下来会做什么。不确定性往往会让金融家们感到紧张。

These jitters⁸ are most easily observed in VIX futures⁹, derivatives¹⁰ that measure the level of volatility¹¹ in stocks. Because periods of very high volatility are correlated with plunging¹² share prices, VIX futures are often traded by investors as an insurance policy against losses in the S&P 500. Because there is usually more potential for volatility over longer time horizons, longer-dated VIX futures tend to be more expensive. They also tend to be dearer around uncertain events that are likely to prompt volatility, such as elections or even important central-bank meetings.

这种紧张在衡量股票波动性水平的衍生品VIX期货中表现最为明显。由于波动率非常高的时期与股价暴跌相连，所以VIX期货通常被投资者作为一种防范标准普尔500指数下跌的保单进行交易。由于在较长时期内波动的可能性通常更大，所以较长期的VIX期货往往更贵。而在可能引发波动的不确定事件(如选举，甚至是重要的央行会议)发生时，它们同样更贵。

1 braced   

adj.拉牢的v.支住( brace的过去式和过去分词 )；撑牢；使自己站稳；振作起来

参考例句：

• They braced up the old house with balks of timber. 他们用梁木加固旧房子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The house has a wooden frame which is braced with brick. 这幢房子是木结构的砖瓦房。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

4 victorious   

adj.胜利的，得胜的

参考例句：

• We are certain to be victorious.我们定会胜利。
• The victorious army returned in triumph.获胜的部队凯旋而归。

5 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

6 virtues   

美德( virtue的名词复数 )； 德行； 优点； 长处

参考例句：

• Doctors often extol the virtues of eating less fat. 医生常常宣扬少吃脂肪的好处。
• She delivered a homily on the virtues of family life. 她进行了一场家庭生活美德方面的说教。

7 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

8 jitters   

n.pl.紧张(通常前面要有the)

参考例句：

• I always get the jitters before exams. 我考试前总是很紧张。
• The whole city had the jitters from the bombing. 全城居民都为轰炸而心神不宁。

9 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

10 derivatives   

n.衍生性金融商品；派生物，引出物( derivative的名词复数 )；导数

参考例句：

• Many English words are derivatives of Latin words. 许多英语词来自拉丁语。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These compounds are nitrosohydroxylamine derivatives. 这类合成物是亚硝基羟胺衍生物。 来自辞典例句

11 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

12 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》