PBS高端访谈:人民币突然贬值对全球的影响

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: World stock and currency markets were rocked for a second straight day today, as China continued to devalue its currency, the yuan.

　　While the drop is not expected to have a big affect on most Americans, and the tumult¹ on Wall Street had calmed by day's end, some analysts² are saying that for U.S. companies who are doing a lot of business inside China, among them Apple, Coca-Cola, and fast food retailer³ Yum! Brands, the change could hurt sales and trim profits.

　　For more on China's move and its ripple⁴ effects, we turn to Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, and Mike McDonough. He's chief global economist⁵ at Bloomberg Intelligence.

　　Welcome to you both.

　　Eswar Prasad, to you first. What does it say that the Chinese Central Bank for the second day in a row has decided⁶ to let its currency be decided by market forces?

　　ESWAR PRASAD, Cornell University: Well, China is doing exactly what it said it would do, which is to let the currency's value be determined⁷ by the market, and the market wants to push the yuan a little lower because China's economy isn't doing so well.

　　But there is also a good side to it, because China has been trying to open up its capital account, that is, make it easier for money to flow in and out of China. And for good reasons, for diversification⁸ and so forth⁹, a lot of money had been going out of China because households and corporations want to invest abroad.

　　Now, the difficulty is that China is undertaking¹⁰ this move at a time when it's good for China, but not necessarily for the rest of the world. So, the Chinese economy has been weak. The Central Bank has been trying to do everything it can to prop¹¹ up the economy, through interest rate cuts, reducing the amount of reserves that Chinese banks have to keep with the Central Bank, so that there can be more credit flowing to the economy.

　　Nothing has worked that well. So, now they're turning to the currency as an added boost. This may be good for China, but it is going to be complicated for the rest of the world.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Mike McDonough, are we better able to today to tell whether this is driven by true — a desire for reform, to let these currency rates be determined by market forces, or is it all about boosting China's lagging growth rate?

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH, Bloomberg: Well, I think Eswar hit the nail on the head, where the timing¹² is perfect.

　　It's about the reform, but it's also about the devaluation that you saw. Basically, China took a measure that is certainly going to help bolster¹³ their export sector¹⁴, but then they put this caveat¹⁵ on the end saying, going forward, we're going to let the market set the rate.

　　So, if you were a policy-maker, you got exactly what you want. But the problem is, by doing this sudden devaluation, they did lose a bit of credibility. So there's talk about the yuan being an SDR, the IMF recognizing it as a sort of global currency.

　　They really hurt their credibility by doing this sudden devaluation, this one-off 2 percent. So, what they need to do now is prove, follow through, continue letting the market set the yuan. And what you're seeing and why you're seeing so much turbulence¹⁶ in the market is because, because they did the 2 percent, they lost the credibility.

　　People are scared now. People are concerned that if China continues slowing down, they're going to do another one-off devaluation, and that's a big risk. They need to now follow through. There is an execution risk. They need to follow through with what they said.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Eswar, I know that there are implications globally for this, but let's try to focus on the United States right now. We mentioned U.S. companies that are deeply invested in China. Where do they stand to come out of this, or is it just too early to know yet?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: So far, the depreciation¹⁷ of the yuan has been relatively¹⁸ modest.

　　And, remember, the U.S. dollar has been very, very strong over the last year. It's appreciated by about 20 percent relative to currencies like the euro and the yen¹⁹. There is only one major currency against which it is appreciated by this 2 percent before this devaluation, and that's the Chinese yuan.

　　So this is just adjusting for that a little bit. But for the U.S., it is going to be in a slightly uncomfortable if the yuan and every other major currency is on the other side trying to weaken their currency relative to the dollar.

　　Now, for companies that are in the U.S., but are operating in China, it's a double blow. First of all, this signals that the Chinese economy is going to remain weak. And the government in China is certainly very concerned about the weakness in the economy, so that's going to affect earnings²⁰ of a company like Apple in China.

　　But, in addition, a lot of the foreign earnings in China and elsewhere are going to be affected²¹ when that money comes back to the U.S., because the U.S. dollar is stronger and China's move is certainly going to keep the dollar even stronger than it would otherwise be. And that will is going to earnings in dollars, so it could potentially be a double blow for companies like Apple operating in China.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mike McDonough, what would you add to that? What do you see as the effect in the U.S.?

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Go ahead.

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH: What you really need to look at isn't the devaluation. It was relatively minor²².

　　The problem is, why did they do it? China's economy is hurting. It is slowing down. They're doing everything they can to — in a best-case scenario²³, in my view, China, they don't have a resurgence²⁴ in growth. They stabilize²⁵ growth.

　　So you have the world's second largest economy, which has been this big tailwind for global growth, not just in the U.S., but everywhere — they're a big consumer of our exports — suddenly sputtering²⁶. So this tailwind is becoming a headwind. That's the real concern. It's not the devaluation. It's, why did they do it?

　　China's economy is slowing. Demand is slowing for goods in general, and that's the real problem. They need to basically buoy²⁷ growth.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Eswar, as you're saying, that has real effects on countries around the globe and including in the U.S., I mean, these companies that we mentioned and others. I think some American consumers may also be asking, is this going to affect me?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: For the American consumers, it could be a mixed blessing²⁸, because if China's currency continues to weaken and if other currencies around the world try to weaken themselves even more in order to compete more effectively with China, that's going to mean a stronger dollar.

　　And a stronger dollar means a couple of good things for U.S. consumers. Number one, it means cheaper imports from the rest of the world. And, second, it also means lower interest rates, because even if the Fed were to hike short-term policy interest rates sometimes later this year, long-term rates in the U.S. are likely to remain low.

　　And long-term rates are what determine mortgage rates, auto²⁹ loan rates and so on. So that's all good for U.S. consumers. But there are some sectors³⁰ of the economy that are very export-oriented that are going to get hurt, because, first of all, foreign companies are going to be much more competitive here and Americans are going to find it much harder to export to the rest of the world.

　　So the benefits are going to be widespread, but the pain is going to be concentrated in some sectors that could face fairly significant job losses and the loss of economic momentum³¹.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mike McDonough, just quickly, so, what do you suspect now? What are you looking for now as we watch what China is doing?

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH: You know, I think, you know, China is going to have to continue implementing³² a bit more stimulus³⁴. I think they have the firepower to at least stabilize growth that you have seen in China, but I think you're not going to see the China of the past.

　　China is going to continue to slow. They're going to try to stabilize that slowdown. They're going to continue trying to reform their economy. And they're going to continue opening up, but it is going to be these basically short cycles where everyone gets really euphoric about China because they think things are looking better, and then they're going to implement³³ some reforms, there will be some signs that things are sputtering again, and then there will be these concerns about the hard landing.

　　Right now, we're in one of these down periods, but eventually things will stabilize. But it's going to, going forward, be this panic and euphoria very short period phases going on in China.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: They have certainly gotten everybody's attention for the last two days.

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH: Definitely.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mike McDonough with Bloomberg, Eswar Prasad at Cornell University, we thank you both.

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH: Thank you.

　　ESWAR PRASAD: Thank you.

　　MIKE MCDONOUGH: Thank you very much.

1 tumult   

n.喧哗；激动，混乱；吵闹

参考例句：

• The tumult in the streets awakened everyone in the house.街上的喧哗吵醒了屋子里的每一个人。
• His voice disappeared under growing tumult.他的声音消失在越来越响的喧哗声中。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 retailer   

n.零售商(人)

参考例句：

• What are the retailer requirements?零售商会有哪些要求呢？
• The retailer has assembled a team in Shanghai to examine the question.这家零售商在上海组建了一支团队研究这个问题。

4 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

8 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

9 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

10 undertaking   

n.保证，许诺，事业

参考例句：

• He gave her an undertaking that he would pay the money back with in a year.他向她做了一年内还钱的保证。
• He is too timid to venture upon an undertaking.他太胆小，不敢从事任何事业。

11 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

12 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

13 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

14 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

15 caveat   

n.警告； 防止误解的说明

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling.为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。
• As I have written before,that's quite a caveat.正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。

16 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

17 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

18 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

19 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

20 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

21 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

22 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

23 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

24 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

25 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

26 sputtering   

n.反应溅射法；飞溅；阴极真空喷镀；喷射v.唾沫飞溅( sputter的现在分词 )；发劈啪声；喷出；飞溅出

参考例句：

• A wick was sputtering feebly in a dish of oil. 瓦油灯上结了一个大灯花，使微弱的灯光变得更加阴暗。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）
• Jack ran up to the referee, sputtering protest. 贾克跑到裁判跟前，唾沫飞溅地提出抗议。 来自辞典例句

27 buoy   

n.浮标；救生圈；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The party did little to buoy up her spirits.这次聚会并没有让她振作多少。
• The buoy floated back and forth in the shallow water.这个浮标在浅水里漂来漂去。

28 blessing   

n.祈神赐福；祷告；祝福，祝愿

参考例句：

• The blessing was said in Hebrew.祷告用了希伯来语。
• A double blessing has descended upon the house.双喜临门。

29 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

30 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

31 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

32 implementing   

v.实现( implement的现在分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• -- Implementing a comprehensive drug control strategy. ――实行综合治理的禁毒战略。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• He was in no hurry about implementing his unshakable principle. 他并不急于实行他那不可动摇的原则。 来自辞典例句

33 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

34 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。