PBS高端访谈:是什么导致了全球石油供应过剩?

 　　GWEN IFILL: Only a year ago, crude oil was trading at more than $100 a barrel. But prices have plunged¹, down more than 60 percent from its peak. Much of that drop has occurred in just the past few weeks.

　　Increased supply and declining demand for oil, plus the ongoing² slowdown in China's economy are part of what's been fueling turmoil³ in the financial markets, and for some of the major oil-producing countries as well.

　　Russell Gold covers this as the senior energy reporter for The Wall Street Journal.

　　Thank you, Russell, for joining us.

　　The price of crude oil, as we just said, is down so much since 2014. What's the basic reason?

　　RUSSELL GOLD, The Wall Street Journal: Well, the basic reason is that the supply continues to grow.

　　The United States, which has sort of been the big story over the last few years, has been pumping more and more oil. It's barely flattening⁴ off, even as prices come down. Everyone thought the U.S. production would fall off a cliff and that hasn't happened. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been increasing production, something you wouldn't expect from them at these oil prices.

　　And everyone thought, well, what will save the day is Chinese demand, growing Chinese demand will sop⁵ up all that extra oil. That hasn't happened. And then over the last week, as we have seen, there are a lot of questions about whether there is going to be any Chinese demand over the next year or so.

　　GWEN IFILL: Why hasn't there been any incentive⁶ to cut back in production as a way of driving the price back up?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, there's been a lot of incentive if you sort of look at the big macro level across the entire industry. But if you're a producing country, there is no incentive to cut back, because what you're doing is, you're waiting to hope that somebody else cuts back first.

　　If you are the one who cuts back, well, that's going to dry up your revenue. And if you're a company, then you're not going to be able to pay your workers. And if you're a country, you're not going to be able to fund social programs.

　　GWEN IFILL: Where is all this oil coming from, especially in the U.S.?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, in the U.S., there has been an incredible boom brought about by fracking. It's mostly coming from Texas and North Dakota.

　　We're producing more oil than we have since the early 1970s. It's been a really just remarkable⁷ turnaround.

　　GWEN IFILL: And as a result of this — these low prices, what's happened to consumption? Are Americans saying, well, prices are low, I will just keep going as I go? Or are they doing what Americans do, which is buying more?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, that's a great question.

　　Back in 2007, there was what some analysts⁸ call peak gasoline consumption in the United States, we'd hit the maximum that we were going to hit because the cars were getting more fuel-efficient. Well, that's starting to actually turn around. People are buying less fuel-efficient cars and they're driving further.

　　So, you know, you're out there, you're seeing the $2.50 gasoline prices in a lot of places in the country and people are beginning to drive more. So, demand in the U.S. is going up. Globally, it's flat.

　　GWEN IFILL: And so the USA, they're buying big trucks, for instance?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: We're starting to see that coming back, yes, absolutely.

　　GWEN IFILL: So, let's talk about those other countries. You mentioned Saudi Arabia. But what about oil production in places like Iraq, or Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, Iraq is also — like Saudi Arabia, has really ramped⁹ up its oil exports.

　　They're sort of part of the reason behind this glut¹⁰. But if you look at a place like Venezuela, they have got triple-digit inflation rate now. The IMF sees the economy contracting by 7 percent. They're sort of right now at the leading edge of oil-producing countries that are in a lot of trouble economically. Russia also is having trouble. They're believed to be in a recession right now because of low oil prices.

　　When you're a producing nation and that's your primary economic output in a place like Venezuela or Nigeria, this is just a really bad scenario¹¹ for them.

　　GWEN IFILL: OK. Well, let's go back to China. We have watched this incredible turmoil in the Chinese markets. Which is the chicken and which is the egg, or does oil play a role in this at all? Is oil driving any of this, or are the markets driving the oil prices?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, I think right now it seems to me like the markets are driving the oil prices.

　　When you see the Chinese economy begin to really slow down or at least the signals are very clear now that it's slowing down, then, all of a sudden, you don't have the big growth in demand that, up until a couple of weeks ago, everyone was expecting. The International Energy Agency earlier this month put out their big monthly report saying, we're going to see a lot of growth in demand at the end of this year.

　　Well, that's really a question mark now. And if you're a producing company now, just a couple — let's say two months ago, the Kansas City board of — Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank put out a survey and asked producers, well, what do you think the oil price is going to be at the end of the year? And the answer was $63. I think they are going to be ecstatic if they get to $63 by the end of the year.

　　GWEN IFILL: And, finally, let's talk about little bit. We talk a great deal on this program about the Iran nuclear deal. And of course there is oil involved and there are questions about oil production involved in that as well. Does that change the nervousness about that deal at all? Does this have an effect?

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Well, I think what the impact it could have is that, if the deal goes through, that's just one more weight on oil prices, because Iran wants to come back and double their production, add another million barrels a day of export on to the market.

　　So if you're sort of looking long-term and thinking to yourself, well, when do oil prices rebound¹², if the Iran deal goes through, then that's just one more bearish¹³ sign really for oil prices.

　　GWEN IFILL: OK. Well, we will be watching all of these. There's so many factors which will drive the outcome.

　　Russell Gold of The Wall Street Journal, thank you very much.

　　RUSSELL GOLD: Thank you.

1 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

2 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

3 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

4 flattening   

n. 修平 动词flatten的现在分词

参考例句：

• Flattening of the right atrial border is also seen in constrictive pericarditis. 右心房缘变平亦见于缩窄性心包炎。
• He busied his fingers with flattening the leaves of the book. 他手指忙着抚平书页。

5 sop   

n.湿透的东西，懦夫；v.浸，泡，浸湿

参考例句：

• I used a mop to sop up the spilled water.我用拖把把泼出的水擦干。
• The playground was a mere sop.操场很湿。

6 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

7 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 ramped   

土堤斜坡( ramp的过去式和过去分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• With the arrival of George Lucas, the pace has ramped up. 随着乔治·卢卡斯的到来，速度大大加快。
• They also sold corporate bonds as the global financial crisis ramped up. 在全球金融危机加剧之际，他们还抛售了公司债券。

10 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

12 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

13 bearish   

adj.(行情)看跌的，卖空的

参考例句：

• It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的，因此如果她选择股票，我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
• I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。