PBS高端访谈:为什么到现在还没有共和党的领先者

 　　GWEN IFILL: So what better time for Politics Monday with Tamara Keith of NPR and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report?

　　Let's start by talking about Donald Trump¹ and Ben Carson, who, it appears, are now about to go after each other because — and let's take a look at the poll numbers, which explains why — all of a sudden, they're tied — or I should say Ben Carson is surging in Iowa. The latest Des Moines Register poll has him at 28 percent, Donald Trump at 19 percent.

　　And in New Hampshire, the latest CBS poll has him at — has Donald Trump at 38 percent and Carson at 12 percent.

　　Donald Trump, Amy, when he's asked about these polls — he likes to talk about polls.

　　AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: He loves talking about the polls.

　　GWEN IFILL: He now thinks that the polls, especially the one in Iowa, where he's trailing, might be wrong.

　　AMY WALTER: Well, of course, because how could he possibly not be in first place?

　　Well, I think we are now at sort of the new stage here in this campaign, where we know we still have a very strong group of Republican primary voters looking for an outsider. They liked Trump earlier this summer. As we have moved on into the fall, you can already start to feel that he may have, reality show lingo² here, jumped the shark a little bit. Here's starting to wear a little bit thin.

　　GWEN IFILL: I have heard this before, Amy.

　　AMY WALTER: I know. Hey, listen, here's what I will say to you.

　　GWEN IFILL: Yes.

　　AMY WALTER: This isn't indicative of everything, but sitting in — both looking at data from Iowa, listening to some Republican voters in a focus group last week, they still like Donald Trump.

　　Let's be very clear. He still has a very important place in this primary field. But what you can start to hear from voters, from Republican primary voters, is, I don't know about the temperament³. I don't know if I trust him in that job, hence the rise of Ben Carson, who is the exact opposite in temperament.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about Ben Carson's temperament. Very calm. He will admit to you he is a very calm person, which, of course, is what Donald Trump was talking about. But he said some very strong things this weekend.

　　He said that abortion⁴ is like slavery. He has been very definitive⁵ in his conservative views. Do people like him? I mean, what explains, I guess, the surge in Iowa?

　　TAMARA KEITH, NPR: I think that a lot of people who you talk to about why they like Ben Carson actually like that he's quiet, that he's not this bomb thrower, though the interesting thing is that a lot of the things he says, some of the analogies he makes to Nazism⁶ and some other things are pretty inflammatory, but he says it very quietly. Sort of a doctor voice,GWEN IFILL: A lot of people agree with his analogies.

　　TAMARA KEITH: Yes. And there have been some numbers out there showing that people agree with what he's saying.

　　AMY WALTER: Republican primary voters.

　　TAMARA KEITH: Yes, Republicans.

　　AMY WALTER: Yes.

　　TAMARA KEITH: And we're talking about Republican primary voters. We're also talking in Iowa about a state that is heavily evangelical in the primary. And he is appealing to that sort of very — he's a very religious person.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about Jeb Bush, because the last time Donald Trump accused someone of being low-energy, it kind of worked. And Donald Trump and Jeb Bush have seen the altitude going out of his balloon ever since.

　　Is he pulling back or he is just reorganizing himself?

　　AMY WALTER: It is remarkable⁷, I think, in this race, not so much that there is an outsider energy fueling these two candidates, Carson and Trump.

　　What I think is the most remarkable thing on the Republican side is the vacuum on the so-called establishment side, that no candidate — we thought it was going to be Jeb Bush. He hasn't lived up to expectations, and no one else has been able to sort of get in that lane as the front-runner on the establishment side to match up against the front-runner on the non-establishment side.

　　So, Jeb Bush, apparently⁸, they spent the weekend in Houston with big donors⁹ trying to assure them that everything is fine, we got this all under control.

　　But it's really clear that the problem for Jeb Bush is, one, he hasn't been a particularly strong candidate, and, number two, he has a message that is not the right message for this moment. He is an establishment candidate who is talking about his record and his accomplishments¹⁰ as governor, when Republican primary voters want an outsider and somebody who is going to shake up the system.

　　GWEN IFILL: So, obviously, there are other Republicans who see an opportunity here, among them, say, Ted¹¹ Cruz or Marco Rubio.

　　TAMARA KEITH: Yes. And Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are going for sort of different people.

　　But in the betting markets, Marco Rubio is on the rise. Marco Rubio in these markets of people who sort of look at the odds¹² in a sort of outsider way, his stock has risen. He is now higher than Jeb Bush. And he has been building an organization, the same thing very much true with Ted Cruz, who has an organization. He has people text in.

　　And he even has an app. He is very serious about building an organization. And as things start to settle out and — his plan is, as things settle out and Donald Trump loses some of that…GWEN IFILL: Those same people.

　　TAMARA KEITH: … those people will go to Ted Cruz.

　　GWEN IFILL: To Ted Cruz.

　　Let's talk about the Democrats¹⁴, a big weekend. Do you remember, in 2007, Barack Obama went to the Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner in Des Moines, broke out, and next thing you know he had overwhelmed Hillary Clinton and won Iowa?

　　Did anybody break out this weekend?

　　TAMARA KEITH: No.

　　AMY WALTER: No. No, this was not…

　　TAMARA KEITH: This is not 2007.

　　AMY WALTER: This was not 2007.

　　There wasn't a breakout. But, listen, there was a change. And you saw in Bernie Sanders that night on Saturday night in Des Moines a more pointed¹⁵ criticism of Hillary Clinton than we have seen before. Now, he didn't use her name.

　　GWEN IFILL: Which you're not allowed to, I think, at this dinner.

　　AMY WALTER: That's probably true.

　　AMY WALTER: So, it was still a — it was subtle.

　　But what he was saying, what his message is, not only I am the candidate that is talking about income inequality and making that the centerpiece of my campaign, but I was there first on issues that are important to progressives, and I have been there when it's not convenient, Iraq, Defense¹⁶ of Marriage Act and on trade.

　　GWEN IFILL: And Hillary Clinton responded, following him, by throwing her arms around Barack Obama and saying, I'm the Democrat¹³'s Democrat.

　　TAMARA KEITH: Absolutely.

　　She — and she had people there with thunder sticks, and she — she learned her lesson from 2007, which was Barack Obama basically out-organized her and put on a better show, and she wasn't going to go into that without putting on quite a show.

　　There was a sea of blue glow sticks for Hillary Clinton. She did make one remark that was like a little dig at Bernie Sanders, where she said, you know, people say I'm shouting too much on guns, which is actually an issue that's sort of the toughest issue for Bernie. Well, you know, people often think women are shouting. It was sort of a…GWEN IFILL: Lots of gender¹⁷ references.

　　TAMARA KEITH: Yes, there was a lot. She is — Hillary Clinton is definitely running as a woman in a way that she didn't last time around.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about Joe Biden.

　　We watched him last night on “60 Minutes.” He gave another one of those emotional interviews. But he also said some pretty interesting things about why he chose not to run, in particular his assessment¹⁸ of and Jill — Dr. Jill Biden's assessment of Hillary Clinton.

　　AMY WALTER: Yes.

　　And, look, I think what he said, quite simply, “I didn't think I could win,” although the biggest thing I took out from this interview was, this was much more of an emotional than a logical decision. This wasn't about campaign finance, as much as it was about a grieving father. And, look…GWEN IFILL: He talked about his granddaughter saying, “Pop, don't go away.”

　　AMY WALTER: Right, tearing up while — you had to tear up when you listened to him talk about that.

　　And it was really clear that, no matter — if he wanted to do this, and it's that he was running against a calendar that wasn't going to help him, new filing deadlines were coming, fund-raising was going to be very difficult. And, fundamentally, in order to beat Hillary Clinton, he was going to have to take the case to Hillary Clinton. She wasn't just going to collapse¹⁹.

　　And when you hear people around Joe Biden, they talk about him, they say he was never going to be that candidate who was going to directly at her.

　　GWEN IFILL: What struck you the most?

　　TAMARA KEITH: Oh, that moment that you talked about, too. It was just — it was so emotional.

　　And, also, I think that he was watching the reports, that he was paying attention to what we were saying about whether he was going to run or not.

　　TAMARA KEITH: He was annoyed by it. And he thought, they're all getting it wrong, because, apparently, he hadn't made up his mind.

　　GWEN IFILL: And so he decided²⁰ to get it right. It was a very effective and interesting way to do it.

　　AMY WALTER: Yes.

　　Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you all.

　　GWEN IFILL: Go have some meat.

 

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 lingo   

n.语言不知所云，外国话，隐语

参考例句：

• If you live abroad it helps to know the local lingo.住在国外，学一点当地的语言自有好处。
• Don't use all that technical lingo try and explain in plain English.别尽用那种专门术语，用普通的词语解释吧。

3 temperament   

n.气质，性格，性情

参考例句：

• The analysis of what kind of temperament you possess is vital.分析一下你有什么样的气质是十分重要的。
• Success often depends on temperament.成功常常取决于一个人的性格。

4 abortion   

n.流产，堕胎

参考例句：

• She had an abortion at the women's health clinic.她在妇女保健医院做了流产手术。
• A number of considerations have led her to have a wilful abortion.多种考虑使她执意堕胎。

5 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

6 Nazism   

n. 纳粹主义

参考例句：

• His philosophical eyes were obviously shortsighted by the evil influence of Nazism. 显然，他那双哲学家般的深邃的眼睛也被纳粹的妖氛所眩惑。 来自中国文学部分
• Nazism suppressed all three movements as degenerate. 纳粹把所有三个运动都作为颓废艺术而加以镇压。

7 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

8 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

9 donors   

n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 )；献血者；捐血者；器官捐献者

参考例句：

• Please email us to be removed from our active list of blood donors. 假如你想把自己的名字从献血联系人名单中删去，请给我们发电子邮件。
• About half this amount comes from individual donors and bequests. 这笔钱大约有一半来自个人捐赠及遗赠。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 accomplishments   

n.造诣；完成( accomplishment的名词复数 )；技能；成绩；成就

参考例句：

• It was one of the President's greatest accomplishments. 那是总统最伟大的成就之一。
• Among her accomplishments were sewing,cooking,playing the piano and dancing. 她的才能包括缝纫、烹调、弹钢琴和跳舞。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

11 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

12 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

13 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

14 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

16 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

17 gender   

n.（生理上的）性，（名词、代词等的）性

参考例句：

• French differs from English in having gender for all nouns.法语不同于英语，所有的名词都有性。
• Women are sometimes denied opportunities solely because of their gender.妇女有时仅仅因为性别而无法获得种种机会。

18 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

19 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

20 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。