PBS高端访谈:特朗普的议程正在助长投资者的信心

 　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Now let's turn to the markets and the remarkable¹ rally of late, one that's led to new records since President Trump² was elected.

　　William Brangham has the story.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The Dow Jones and other indexes were already doing well when Donald Trump won the presidential election. In fact, from the lows of the 2008 financial crisis through President Obama's time in office, the Dow climbed back by about 150 percent.

　　And while markets closed lower today, the overall jump of recent weeks has accelerated mightily³, rising from just over 18000 on Election Day to breaking 21000 this week. In fact, it jumped by 1,000 points in just 24 days. That's the quickest rise since 1999.

　　For some analysis of what's happening, I'm joined now by Neil Irwin. He's an economics writer for The New York Times.

　　Welcome.

　　NEIL IRWIN, The New York Times: Thanks.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Pretty amazing market out there right now. Can you explain? What is going on?

　　NEIL IRWIN: So, the simplest version is, Donald Trump is president. His agenda is to cut corporate⁴ taxes. His agenda is to deregulate. These are things that are good for the bottom line for major companies.

　　Throw in some more military spending, maybe some infrastructure⁵ spending, that's good for the bottom line for corporate America. Add in also, this is a global economy the is kind of getting on its feet after a rough couple of years, rough patch.

　　And you combine those things into one period of a few months, and that's how you get these kinds of rallies that we have seen.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: As you say, Donald Trump certainly would like to take credit and has taken credit for this. Does he deserve credit for this?

　　NEIL IRWIN: Yes, there is no question that the Trump agenda is something that's making stock investors⁷ confident, that's leading them to believe that after-tax profits, which is what matters if you're a stock investor⁶, are going to be on the rise in the years ahead.

　　Some of the math is pretty simple. If you're a bank and you can — your capital requirements gets dropped, if you're a military contractor⁸ and your military spending gets increased, that is going to go straight to your bottom line. Lower taxes, good for the bottom line. That's all good for stocks.

　　So, there's no question that's part of the Trump agenda. Now, that said, most of those policies haven't actually happened yet. So there is still the question of, will the Trump administration deliver the things that Wall Street is now expecting?

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: It's an anticipatory⁹ effect.

　　NEIL IRWIN: Exactly.

　　特朗普的议程正在助长投资者的信心

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You wrote recently that the real question is, how much slack is there in the economy? What do you mean by slack, and why is that important?

　　NEIL IRWIN: Every economy, every country has some kind of economic speed limit. There's only so many people. They can only produce so much stuff.

　　The question for the economy is how close we are to that speed limit in the United States. How low can the unemployment rate go? How many more — how much unused capacity is there in the manufacturing sector¹⁰?

　　And that's the big question going forward. Is there room for the economy to grow 3 percent or 4 percent, like Donald Trump said he wanted to see during the campaign? Or are we pretty much as fast as we can — are we growing as fast as we can, something like 2 percent?

　　And that's the big question of whether this kind of outstanding growth that is being priced into financial markets really can be delivered in the years ahead.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Do you know the answer to that question? If you had to guess, where are we?

　　NEIL IRWIN: We're getting close.

　　Look, we're at under 5 percent unemployment. Now, there's a lot of people outside the labor¹¹ market who might come back in. So there is some slack out there. There is some room to grow, but probably not as much as there was a year or two ago. And that will become the binding¹² constraint¹³ in these next couple of years.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: A booming market is certainly great if you're in that market, but not all sectors¹⁴ are booming equally.

　　How does this booming market translate, though, for people — does it add to growth that makes a real impact in people's lives?

　　NEIL IRWIN: Look, stock wealth is held predominantly by the affluent¹⁵, so the distributional effects of a higher stock market are definitely not even across the population.

　　That said, to the degree that a higher stock market, a rising sense of confidence in corporate America leads to more hiring, more capital expenditures¹⁶, that can have broad impacts.

　　So, there is reason — if these numbers hold up, if what markets are pricing in, in the Trump administration actually happens, that's a good sign for growth, for job growth, for expansion of all kinds of businesses.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Given this economy and what you know of Trump's proposed policies, what specifically about those policies are you looking most closely at?

　　NEIL IRWIN: I think it's execution.

　　Is this big corporate income tax cut that the president says he wants to see, is that really going to happen? How soon will it happen? How big will it be?

　　On the regulatory front, how much of the shift away from regulation really will be things that benefit corporate America? How much — is there going to be new infrastructure spending? He wants a trillion dollars. Is that actually going to happen? Congress isn't so sure.

　　So seeing if some of these things go from an idea on a chalkboard to actual legislation, actual policy, that's the big question right now.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I know you're an analyst¹⁷ and an economics writer, and you don't buy and sell stocks, but if you had to be advising me, do you think this rally is going to continue? Can it keep up like this?

　　NEIL IRWIN: Look, stocks are priced for protection right now. They're very — they're highly priced relative to earnings¹⁸. It's all prospective¹⁹.

　　So, you're not buying current earnings. You're buying the future. And the future is as uncertain as it's ever been. That said, is there plenty of reason to think that earnings could grow as the market is now predicting? Certainly. To count on it, think it's assured makes it a bit of a risky²⁰ bet.

　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, Neil Irwin of The New York Times, thank you very much.

　　NEIL IRWIN: Thank you.

1 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 mightily   

ad.强烈地；非常地

参考例句：

• He hit the peg mightily on the top with a mallet. 他用木槌猛敲木栓顶。
• This seemed mightily to relieve him. 干完这件事后，他似乎轻松了许多。

4 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

5 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

6 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 contractor   

n.订约人，承包人，收缩肌

参考例句：

• The Tokyo contractor was asked to kick $ 6000 back as commission.那个东京的承包商被要求退还6000美元作为佣金。
• The style of house the contractor builds depends partly on the lay of the land.承包商所建房屋的式样，有几分要看地势而定。

9 anticipatory   

adj.预想的，预期的

参考例句：

• An anticipatory story is a trap to the teller.对于讲故事的人而言，事先想好的故事是个框框。
• Data quality is a function of systematic usage,not anticipatory design.数据质量是系统使用的功能，不是可预料的设计。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

12 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

13 constraint   

n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物

参考例句：

• The boy felt constraint in her presence.那男孩在她面前感到局促不安。
• The lack of capital is major constraint on activities in the informal sector.资本短缺也是影响非正规部门生产经营的一个重要制约因素。

14 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 affluent   

adj.富裕的，富有的，丰富的，富饶的

参考例句：

• He hails from an affluent background.他出身于一个富有的家庭。
• His parents were very affluent.他的父母很富裕。

16 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

18 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

19 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

20 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。