英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(14)

What is most politically significant about this shift from a logic¹ of statistics to one of data is how comfortably it sits with the rise of populism. Populist leaders can heap scorn upon traditional experts, such as economists² and pollsters, while trusting in a different form of numerical analysis altogether. Such politicians rely on a new, less visible elite³, who seek out patterns from vast data banks, but rarely make any public pronouncements, let alone publish any evidence. These data analysts⁴ are often physicists⁵ or mathematicians⁶, whose skills are not developed for the study of society at all. This, for example, is the worldview propagated by Dominic Cummings, former adviser⁷ to Michael Gove and campaign director of Vote Leave. "Physics, mathematics and computer science are domains⁸ in which there are real experts, unlike macro-economic forecasting," Cummings has argued.

这种从统计逻辑向数据逻辑的转变最具政治意义的地方在于：它和民粹主义的崛起相去甚远。民粹主义领导人可以对经济学家和民意调查专家等传统专家嗤之以鼻，却完全相信另一种形式的数字分析。这些政客依赖于一个新的、不那么引人注目的精英阶层，他们从庞大的数据库中寻找规律，但很少发表公开声明，更不用说发布什么证据了。这些数据分析师通常是物理学家或数学家，他们的技能根本不适合用来研究社会。例如，下面是迈克尔·戈夫的前顾问、“脱欧”运动负责人多米尼克·卡明斯所宣扬的世界观，他认为：物理、数学和计算机科学领域有真正的专家，宏观经济预测领域则没有。”

Figures close to Donald Trump⁹, such as his chief strategist Steve Bannon and the Silicon¹⁰ Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, are closely acquainted with cutting-edge data analytics techniques, via companies such as Cambridge Analytica, on whose board Bannon sits. During the presidential election campaign, Cambridge Analytica drew on various data sources to develop psychological profiles of millions of Americans, which it then used to help Trump target voters with tailored messaging.

和唐纳德·特朗普关系密切的人物，比如他的首席策略师史蒂夫·班农和硅谷亿万富翁彼得·蒂尔，都通过班农担任董事会成员的剑桥分析公司等公司来熟知尖端的数据分析技术。在总统竞选期间，剑桥分析公司利用各种数据来源开发了数百万美国人的心理档案，然后利用这些资料帮助特朗普针对选民定制信息。

This ability to develop and refine psychological insights across large populations is one of the most innovative¹¹ and controversial features of the new data analysis. As techniques of "sentiment analysis", which detect the mood of large numbers of people by tracking indicators¹² such as word usage on social media, become incorporated into political campaigns, the emotional allure¹³ of figures such as Trump will become amenable¹⁴ to scientific scrutiny¹⁵. In a world where the political feelings of the general public are becoming this traceable, who needs pollsters?

这种在大量人群中发展和完善心理学洞察力的能力是新数据分析最具创新性和争议性的特征之一。“情绪分析”技术通过追踪社交媒体上的用词等指标来探测大量人群的情绪，随着“情绪分析”技术被纳入政治竞选，像特朗普这样的人物的情感诱惑将会受到科学的审视。在一个公众的政治情绪变得如此可追踪的世界里，谁还需要民意测验专家呢？

1 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 physicists   

物理学家( physicist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• For many particle physicists, however, it was a year of frustration. 对于许多粒子物理学家来说，这是受挫折的一年。 来自英汉非文学 - 科技
• Physicists seek rules or patterns to provide a framework. 物理学家寻求用法则或图式来构成一个框架。

6 mathematicians   

数学家( mathematician的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Do you suppose our mathematicians are unequal to that? 你以为我们的数学家做不到这一点吗？ 来自英汉文学
• Mathematicians can solve problems with two variables. 数学家们可以用两个变数来解决问题。 来自哲学部分

7 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

8 domains   

n.范围( domain的名词复数 )；领域；版图；地产

参考例句：

• The theory of thermodynamics links the macroscopic and submicroscopic domains. 热力学把宏观世界同亚微观世界联系起来。 来自辞典例句
• All three flow domains are indicated by shading. 所有三个流动区域都是用阴影部分表示的。 来自辞典例句

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

11 innovative   

adj.革新的，新颖的，富有革新精神的

参考例句：

• Discover an innovative way of marketing.发现一个创新的营销方式。
• He was one of the most creative and innovative engineers of his generation.他是他那代人当中最富创造性与革新精神的工程师之一。

12 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

13 allure   

n.诱惑力，魅力；vt.诱惑，引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• The window displays allure customers to buy goods.橱窗陈列品吸引顾客购买货物。
• The book has a certain allure for which it is hard to find a reason.这本书有一种难以解释的魅力。

14 amenable   

adj.经得起检验的；顺从的；对负有义务的

参考例句：

• His scientific discoveries are amenable to the laws of physics.他在科学上的发现经得起物理定律的检验。
• He is amenable to counsel.他这人听劝。

15 scrutiny   

n.详细检查，仔细观察

参考例句：

• His work looks all right,but it will not bear scrutiny.他的工作似乎很好，但是经不起仔细检查。
• Few wives in their forties can weather such a scrutiny.很少年过四十的妻子经得起这么仔细的观察。