中国互联网数字有无水分

 The big numbers of the China’s internet keep getting bigger.

中国互联网行业的大数字在不断变得更大。

Last Monday, ecommerce group Alibaba announced that it had hit a target of Rmb3tn ($462bn) in annual sales, a number that is more than the entire US’s ecommerce market for 2015, estimated last month by the census¹ bureau at $341bn.

上周一，电商集团阿里巴巴(Alibaba)宣布，该公司实现了3万亿元人民币（合4620亿美元）年电商交易额的目标。这个数字大于2015年美国电商市场的总体规模。根据上月美国人口普查局(Census Bureau)的估算，去年美国电商交易规模为3410亿美元。

The next day, Didi Kuaidi, China’s largest internet ride-hailing platform, announced it had hit a milestone² of 10m rides per day, with the company saying this made it “the largest mobile-based transportation platform in the world”.

接下来的一天，中国最大的互联网打车平台滴滴快的(Didi Kuaidi)宣布，日均完成订单首次突破1000万，该公司表示这使它成为“全球最大的移动出行平台”。

The scope of China’s internet users are significant — valuations of the country’s internet companies are some of the highest in the world, based on the perception that China’s 668m internet users are clicking, buying, searching and shopping on them in droves.

中国互联网用户数量庞大。中国多家互联网公司的估值在世界上属于最高之列，这是因为人们认为，中国的6.68亿互联网用户在这些公司的平台上频繁点击、购买、搜索、消费。

But while few doubt that China’s internet is a dizzying growth story, just how dizzying is open to some debate. Analysts⁴ are cautious about endorsing⁵ all the claims of China’s internet behemoths, and some are outright⁶ sceptical.

但是，尽管很少有人怀疑中国互联网有着令人晕眩的增长故事，但这种增长有多快是值得讨论的。分析师们对中国互联网巨头的种种说法持保留态度，有些分析师直截了当地表示出怀疑。

Duncan Clark, chairman of BDA, a Beijing-based consultancy and author of a book on Alibaba, says there are legitimate⁷ reasons why growth in internet companies should be high. “In China there are often very poor or inefficient⁸ offline services, so the online alternatives have had a disproportionate impact on commerce,” he says. “That fuels a leapfrogging effect and big growth.”

位于北京的咨询公司BDA的董事长邓肯?克拉克(Duncan Clark)表示，互联网公司的增长速度应该很高，这是有合理原因的。“在中国，线下服务要么很差、要么低效，所以线上服务对商业产生了过大的影响，”他说，“这就带来了跳跃式发展和高增长。”克拉克写了一本关于阿里巴巴的书。

On the other hand, “there is also tremendous competition to be seen as the number one player — so there is a temptation to try to go for the bigger number”, he says.

另一方面，“也存在着巨大的竞争，都争当第一——所以有追求更大数字的动力”，他说。

Shaun Rein⁹, founder¹⁰ of the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, says China’s internet is “undeniably huge”, but adds that there is a persistent¹¹ perception the numbers may be over-egged.

位于上海的中国市场研究集团(China Market Research)的创始人雷小山(Shaun Rein)说，中国互联网市场“无疑是巨大的”，但人们一直认为相关数字或许被夸大了。

For example, many merchants on Alibaba’s virtual market place fake sales in order to boost their rankings. “The merchants all want five stars, and the way to do that is to fake orders,” he says.

比如，阿里巴巴在线市场的许多商家通过刷单提高店铺星级。“商家都想要五星级，实现目标的手段就是刷单，”他说。

He estimates the amount of faked orders on Alibaba at 20-30 per cent of gross merchandise value (GMV). Anne Stevenson Yang, head of Beijing-based J Capital Research, goes even further, charging that Alibaba’s GMV is up to 50 per cent overstated.

他估计，刷单数量占到阿里巴巴商品交易总额(GMV)的20%至30%。位于北京的美奇金投资咨询公司(J Capital Research)的负责人杨思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)甚至认为，阿里巴巴的GMV被高估了50%。

Alibaba calls these estimates “baseless”, saying: “We take a prudent¹² approach in the calculation of our GMV, which is scrubbed of fictitious¹³ transactions and transactions over certain amount.”

阿里巴巴称这些估算“毫无根据”，并表示：“我们在计算GMV过程中采取了审慎的方法，剔除了虚假交易和高于某一数额的交易。”

Ms Yang has frequently drawn¹⁴ attention to what she believes are inflated¹⁵ internet statistics, driven by the pressure to raise funds.

杨思安已多次使人们的注意力集中到了她眼中虚高的互联网统计数字上——虚报数据是迫于融资压力。

“These companies are under pressure to show world beating growth in volumes and the provenance¹⁶ of these statistics is unclear at best,” she says.

“这些公司压力很大，必须展示出类拔萃的规模增长，这些统计数字说好听点是出处不明，”她说。

For instance, she points out government data showing 86 per cent of Chinese internet users have incomes of less than Rmb5,000 ($769) per month.

比如，她指出，政府数据显示，中国86%的互联网用户的月收入不及5000元人民币（合769美元）。

That has not stopped them from spending Rmb12tn ($1.9tn) in 2015 transactions on Alipay, Alibaba’s payment affiliate¹⁷, according to research by Credit Suisse published in February.

可是根据瑞信(Credit Suisse) 2月发布的研究报告，2015年他们用阿里巴巴的支付平台支付宝(Alipay)完成了12万亿元人民币（合1.9万亿美元）的交易。

That $1.9tn compares to $282bn total transaction volume for PayPal in 2015, and equivalent to two-thirds the global total, according to Juniper Research. The Alipay totals “seem very high”, according to Windsor Holden, the author of the Juniper Research report.

根据Juniper Research的数据，这1.9万亿美元与2015年PayPal 2820亿美元的总交易额形成鲜明对比，而且相当于全球总交易额的三分之二。在Juniper Research研究报告的撰写人温莎?霍尔登(Windsor Holden)看来，支付宝的交易总额“看起来非常高”。

Ant Financial, Alipay’s parent group, declined to comment, but an analyst³ at iResearch, a Beijing-based consultancy whose statistics were used by Credit Suisse, said that the large number is partly explained by the large amount of non-ecommerce payments that Alipay handles.

支付宝的母公司蚂蚁金服(Ant Financial)拒绝置评，但位于北京的咨询公司艾瑞咨询(iResearch)的一位分析师称，这个巨大的数字可以从支付宝处理的大量非电子商务支付得到一部分解释。艾瑞咨询的数据为瑞信所采用。

One source of confusion is how companies define their statistics, says Ms Yang.

杨思安称，一个令人困惑之处是企业如何界定它们的统计指标。

While companies like Alibaba and Facebook report “active users” for their services, social media and gaming giant Tencent reports monthly “active user accounts” for its social media sites QQ and WeChat. The company reported 850m QQ monthly active user accounts in September, or 127 per cent of China’s internet users as measured by the governmental China Internet Network Information Centre.

阿里巴巴和Facebook等企业报告的是使用其服务的“活跃用户”，而社交媒体和游戏巨头腾讯(Tencent)报告的是其社交媒体软件QQ和微信(WeChat)的月“活跃账户”。去年9月，腾讯报告称，QQ月活跃账户为8.5亿，相当于中国互联网信息中心(CINIC)提供的中国互联网用户总数的127%。

Alibaba, meanwhile, has long faced questions about its GMV. Like Chinese competitor JD.com and US-based eBay, this total includes items that have not been paid for. However, JD.com says it is more stringent¹⁸ and will not count an unpaid¹⁹ transaction if it is over Rmb2,000. JD said in an earnings²⁰ release this month that using Alibaba’s methodology would boost its GMV by 31 per cent.

与此同时，阿里巴巴长久以来一直面临着围绕其GMV的疑问。像其在中国的竞争对手京东(JD.com)和总部位于美国的eBay一样，这一总数中包含未完成支付的商品。不过京东自称更加严谨，如果单笔未支付交易超过2000元人民币则不会统计在GMV中。京东本月公布财报时表示，如果用阿里巴巴的方法来计算，其GMV将增加31%。

Since its 2014 initial public offering, Alibaba has changed its definition of GMV — formerly²¹ it did not count all items over Rmb100,000, while in its most recent annual report it said it excludes only “transactions in certain product categories over certain amounts and transactions by buyers in certain product categories over a certain amount per day”.

2014年进行首次公开发行(IPO)以后，阿里巴巴改变了其GMV的定义。以前它不统计所有超过10万元人民币的商品，然而在其最近一次年报中，阿里巴巴称其只排除了“超过特定数额的特定产品类别的交易，以及买家每日超过特定数额的特定产品类别的交易”。

The company has recently tried to shift the focus away from sales and on to other growth metrics such as revenue. When he announced the GMV milestone last week, Joe Tsai, Alibaba’s executive vice-chairman, said: “Our focus on quality and sustainable growth means how we measure success is no longer dependent on a simplistic view of GMV growth.”

阿里巴巴最近试图将重心从销售额转向营收等其他增长指标上。上周，阿里巴巴执行副主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)在宣布GMV取得里程碑增长时称，该公司的重点已放在追求高质量增长和可持续增长方面，这意味着其不再单纯从GMV增长的角度来衡量成功与否。

The remark left Mr Clark slightly confused. “That was an odd thing. They seemed to be announcing a number that they didn’t want us to focus on in the future.”

这一言论让克拉克有点困惑。“这是件奇怪的事。他们发布了一个数字，似乎又不愿我们以后关注这个数字。”

1 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

2 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 endorsing   

v.赞同( endorse的现在分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品

参考例句：

• Yet Communist leaders are also publicly endorsing religion in an unprecedented way. 不过，共产党领导层对宗教信仰的公开认可也是以前不曾有过的。 来自互联网
• Connecticut Independent Senator Joseph Lieberman is endorsing Republican Senator John McCain. 康涅狄格州独立派参议员约瑟夫。列波曼将会票选共和议员约翰。麦凯恩。 来自互联网

6 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

7 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

8 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。

9 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

10 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

11 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

12 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。

13 fictitious   

adj.虚构的，假设的；空头的

参考例句：

• She invented a fictitious boyfriend to put him off.她虚构出一个男朋友来拒绝他。
• The story my mother told me when I was young is fictitious.小时候妈妈对我讲的那个故事是虚构的。

14 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

15 inflated   

adj.（价格）飞涨的；（通货）膨胀的；言过其实的；充了气的v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• He has an inflated sense of his own importance. 他自视过高。
• They all seem to take an inflated view of their collective identity. 他们对自己的集体身份似乎都持有一种夸大的看法。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 provenance   

n.出处；起源

参考例句：

• Kato was fully aware of the provenance of these treasures.加藤完全清楚这些珍宝的来源。
• This plant's provenance is Asiadj.这种植物原产于亚洲。

17 affiliate   

vt.使隶(附)属于；n.附属机构，分公司

参考例句：

• Our New York company has an affiliate in Los Angeles.我们的纽约公司在洛杉矶有一个下属企业。
• What is the difference between affiliate and regular membership?固定会员和附属会员之间的区别是什么？

18 stringent   

adj.严厉的；令人信服的；银根紧的

参考例句：

• Financiers are calling for a relaxation of these stringent measures.金融家呼吁对这些严厉的措施予以放宽。
• Some of the conditions in the contract are too stringent.合同中有几项条件太苛刻。

19 unpaid   

adj.未付款的，无报酬的

参考例句：

• Doctors work excessive unpaid overtime.医生过度加班却无报酬。
• He's doing a month's unpaid work experience with an engineering firm.他正在一家工程公司无偿工作一个月以获得工作经验。

20 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

21 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。