继特朗普胜选后勒庞会上台吗

 　　This time last year, I wrote that I have a nightmare vision for 2017: President Trump¹, President Le Pen, President Putin.

　　去年这个时候，我写道，我对2017年有一个噩梦般的想象：特朗普总统、勒庞总统，普京总统。

　　So, after Donald Trump’s victory, the next question is whether Marine² Le Pen can indeed capture the French presidency³?

　　因此，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜后的下一个问题是，马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)是否能真能成为法国总统？

　　Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a run-off in May against either Fran?ois Fillon or Alain Juppé.

　　在上周末中右翼阵营初选之后，勒庞看上去可能在明年5月份与弗朗索瓦.菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)或阿兰.朱佩(Alain Juppé)进行终极对决。

　　Both are Hillary Clinton-style establishment figures, who would be ideal opponents for the leader of the far-right.

　　这两人都是希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)式的建制派人物，将是极右翼领袖勒庞的理想对手。

　　The consequences of a victory for the far-right in France would be drastic for both European and world politics.

　　如果极右翼在法国获胜，将为欧洲和世界政治带来非常严重的后果。

　　A Le Pen presidency could well lead to the collapse⁴ of the EU.

　　勒庞当上总统很可能导致欧盟(EU)的崩溃。

　　She wants to pull France out of the European single currency and to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.

　　她希望让法国退出欧洲单一货币，并就法国是否留在欧盟举行公投。

　　Even if Ms Le Pen softened⁵ her stance in office, it is hard to see how Angela Merkel’s Germany could work with a nationalist and authoritarian⁶ France.

　　即便勒庞上台后软化了自己的立场，也很难设想安格拉.默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导下的德国如何能跟一个民族主义、威权主义的法国携手合作。

　　With Germany and France set on radically⁷ different paths, Franco-German antagonism⁸ would return to the heart of European politics.

　　随着德国和法国走上截然不同的道路，法德的对立将重回欧洲政治的中心。

　　The global implications of a Le Pen victory would also be severe.

　　勒庞获胜对全球的影响也将是严重的。

　　Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council would be occupied either by undemocratic governments (Russia and China), or by democracies led by nationalist rightwing leaders (US and France).

　　在联合国(UN)安全理事会(Security Council)的五个常任理事国中，有四个将要么是非民主国家（俄罗斯和中国），要么是由民族主义右翼领袖领导的民主国家（美国和法国）。

　　Under such circumstances, the international legal order could crumble⁹, as might once again became right.

　　在这种情况下，国际法律秩序可能崩溃，世界秩序可能再次向右转。

　　Of course, even post-Brexit and post-Trump, there is nothing inevitable¹⁰ about a Le Pen victory in France.

　　当然，即便在英国退欧和特朗普上台之后，也不存在什么因素决定勒庞必然在法国获得胜利。

　　For what it is worth, the opinion polls still show her likely to lose decisively in the second round of the election.

　　无论有多少参考价值，民意调查仍然表明，她可能会以明显差距输掉第二轮选举。

　　And although Ms Le Pen has moved to embrace the Trump White House and has been keenly supported by Mr Trump’s alt-right advisers¹¹, there are important differences between the Trump and Le Pen phenomenons.

　　虽然勒庞对特朗普政府表示了极大的欢迎，并且得到特朗普的另类右翼(alt-right)顾问的支持，但特朗普现象和勒庞现象之间存在着重大区别。

　　Unlike Mr Trump, the National Front has been around for decades and is more of a known quantity to voters.

　　与特朗普不同的是，国民阵线(National Front)已经存在了几十年了，在更大程度上已经为选民们所熟悉了。

　　France’s bitter memories of the Vichy regime of the 1940s may also mean that the country is better inoculated¹² against far-right politics than the US.

　　法国对上世纪40年代维希政权的痛苦记忆或许也意味着，比起美国，法国对极右政治更加免疫。

　　Set against that, however, is the possibility that French voters, who might have feared that a Le Pen presidency would turn their country into an international pariah¹³, may now feel that Mr Trump’s victory has given them permission to vote for the far-right.

　　然而，与此相反的一种可能性是，曾担心勒庞把法国变成国际社会贱民的该国选民，现在也许觉得，特朗普当选让他们获得了投票支持极右翼的许可证。

　　The objective conditions for a turn towards authoritarian nationalism are clearly stronger in France than in the US.

　　法国转向威权民族主义显然具备比美国更充分的客观条件。

　　France has been subjected to savage¹⁴ terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists.

　　法国遭到了伊斯兰极端分子的野蛮恐怖主义袭击。

　　There are large, poorly integrated Muslim populations in most big cities.

　　在大多数大城市中，存在着大量未融入当地社会的的穆斯林人口。

　　Unemployment among the general population is over 10 per cent.

　　全国总人口的失业率超过10%。

　　Above all, the political establishment is despised.

　　最重要的是，政治建制派遭到鄙视。

　　The approval ratings of President Fran?ois Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent.

　　法国总统弗朗索瓦.奥朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)的支持率最近创下4%的惊人低点。

　　The political, social, economic and international environments could not be more favourable¹⁵ for Ms Le Pen.

　　如今的政治、社会、经济和国际环境对勒庞都简直不能更有利了。

　　In recent years, Ms Le Pen has moved to distance herself from her father, Jean-Marie, whose racist¹⁶ views are embarrassingly open.

　　近年来，勒庞已跟父亲让-马里.勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)撇清了干系，后者的种族主义观点是公开的，让人感到难堪。

　　These days, Ms Le Pen’s rhetoric¹⁷ is indeed less inflammatory and dishonest than that of Mr Trump.

　　近来，勒庞的言论确实没有像特朗普那样煽动性十足和不诚实。

　　But the French far-right leader has had her moments.

　　但这位法国极右翼领袖也发表过令人瞠目结舌的言论。

　　She has, for example, compared Muslims praying in France’s streets with the Nazi¹⁸ occupation.

　　比如，她曾把在法国街头祈祷的穆斯林与纳粹占领军相比。

　　On the other side of the channel, there might even be some in the British government who would quietly welcome the prospect¹⁹ of a far-right victory in France.

　　在海峡对岸的英国，政府里甚至可能有些人会暗自希望极右翼在法国取胜。

　　While the current French government is leading the demands that Britain must pay a heavy price for Brexit, Ms Le Pen has applauded the British decision to quit the EU.

　　法国现政府带头要求英国必须为退欧付出沉重代价，而勒庞赞扬了英国的退欧决定。

　　A Le Pen victory might even solve the Brexit problem since there might no longer be an EU left for the UK to leave.

　　也许勒庞获胜甚至可能解决掉英国退欧问题，因为欧盟或许将从这个世界上消失。

　　Boris Johnson, UK foreign secretary, hailed the opportunity represented by the election of the pro-Brexit Mr Trump, and might sniff²⁰ similar opportunities in the rise of Ms Le Pen.

　　英国外交大臣鲍里斯.约翰逊(Boris Johnson)对支持英国退欧的特朗普胜选所代表的机会表示欢呼，他或许也在勒庞的崛起中嗅到了类似的机会。

　　More sober heads in London, however, must surely realise that the rise of the French far-right cannot ultimately be good news for Britain.

　　然而，伦敦更多头脑清醒的人们必须明白，法国极右翼的崛起最终肯定对英国不利。

　　A National Front victory in France would mean that the forces of authoritarian nationalism would be flourishing across Europe, from Moscow to Warsaw to Budapest and Paris.

　　国民阵线在法国的胜利将意味着，威权民族主义将在整个欧洲抬头——从莫斯科到华沙、再到布达佩斯和巴黎。

　　Under Mr Trump, the US could no longer be relied upon as a stabilising force to push back against political extremism in Europe.

　　在特朗普领导下，美国再也不能像人们指望的那样发挥稳定作用、阻止欧洲政治极端主义兴起了。

　　Instead, many in Europe are now looking towards Ms Merkel, who has just announced that she will be running for a fourth term as German chancellor²¹, next year, as the anchor of European stability.

　　相反，欧洲许多人目前正把目光投向默克尔，希望她能维系欧洲的稳定。她刚刚宣布明年将参加竞选，如果获胜，将开始第四个总理任期。

　　But the challenges facing Ms Merkel are truly daunting²².

　　但是，默克尔面临的挑战确实很艰巨。

　　She confronts a hostile Russia to the East and a Middle East in flames to the south.

　　德国东面有敌对的俄罗斯，南面是战火连绵的中东。

　　Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous towards Ms Merkel.

　　特朗普则一直公开对默克尔表示轻蔑。

　　Within the EU, Germany’s relations with southern Europe have been poisoned by the euro crisis, while its relations with eastern Europe have been soured by the refugee crisis.

　　在欧盟内部，德国与南欧的关系因欧元危机而恶化，与东欧的关系因难民危机而变坏。

　　Meanwhile, Britain has voted to leave the bloc²³.

　　同时，英国已投票决定离开欧盟。

　　The election of Ms Le Pen in France could be the final blow to the vision of Europe represented by Ms Merkel, and constructed by generations of European leaders, since the 1950s.

　　若勒庞在法国当选，可能对于由默克尔代表的、自1950年代以来几代欧洲领导人构建的欧洲愿景构成最后一击。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 marine   

adj.海的；海生的；航海的；海事的；n.水兵

参考例句：

• Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

3 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 softened   

（使）变软( soften的过去式和过去分词 )； 缓解打击； 缓和； 安慰

参考例句：

• His smile softened slightly. 他的微笑稍柔和了些。
• The ice cream softened and began to melt. 冰淇淋开始变软并开始融化。

6 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

7 radically   

ad.根本地，本质地

参考例句：

• I think we may have to rethink our policies fairly radically. 我认为我们可能要对我们的政策进行根本的反思。
• The health service must be radically reformed. 公共医疗卫生服务必须进行彻底改革。

8 antagonism   

n.对抗，敌对，对立

参考例句：

• People did not feel a strong antagonism for established policy.人们没有对既定方针产生强烈反应。
• There is still much antagonism between trades unions and the oil companies.工会和石油公司之间仍然存在着相当大的敌意。

9 crumble   

vi.碎裂，崩溃；vt.弄碎，摧毁

参考例句：

• Opposition more or less crumbled away.反对势力差不多都瓦解了。
• Even if the seas go dry and rocks crumble,my will will remain firm.纵然海枯石烂，意志永不动摇。

10 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

11 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

12 inoculated   

v.给…做预防注射( inoculate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• A pedigree pup should have been inoculated against serious diseases before it's sold. 纯种狗应该在出售前注射预防严重疾病的针。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Disease can be spread by dirty tools, insects, inoculated soil. 疾病也能由不干净的工具，昆虫，接种的土壤传播。 来自辞典例句

13 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。

14 savage   

adj.野蛮的；凶恶的，残暴的；n.未开化的人

参考例句：

• The poor man received a savage beating from the thugs.那可怜的人遭到暴徒的痛打。
• He has a savage temper.他脾气粗暴。

15 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

16 racist   

n.种族主义者，种族主义分子

参考例句：

• a series of racist attacks 一连串的种族袭击行为
• His speech presented racist ideas under the guise of nationalism. 他的讲话以民族主义为幌子宣扬种族主义思想。

17 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

18 Nazi   

n.纳粹分子，adj.纳粹党的，纳粹的

参考例句：

• They declare the Nazi regime overthrown and sue for peace.他们宣布纳粹政权已被推翻，并出面求和。
• Nazi closes those war criminals inside their concentration camp.纳粹把那些战犯关在他们的集中营里。

19 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

20 sniff   

vi.嗅…味道；抽鼻涕；对嗤之以鼻，蔑视

参考例句：

• The police used dogs to sniff out the criminals in their hiding - place.警察使用警犬查出了罪犯的藏身地点。
• When Munchie meets a dog on the beach, they sniff each other for a while.当麦奇在海滩上碰到另一条狗的时候，他们会彼此嗅一会儿。

21 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

22 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

23 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。