2019年经济学人 欧元从繁荣到衰退 (1)

 

Even as the European Central Bank (ECB) halts stimulus¹, it looks as if the economy needs revving² up again.

欧洲中央银行（ECB）停止刺激，经济似乎仍需要再次加速发展。

In December the bank said it would stop expanding its 2.6trn euro ($3trn) bond-buying scheme.

12月，该行表示将停止其26000亿欧元（3万亿美元）的债券购买计划。

But on the same day it trimmed its forecasts of economic growth and warned that "the balance of risks is moving to the downside".

但在同一天，该行降低了其对经济增长的预测并警告称“风险平衡有下降趋势”。

Its warnings have now materialised. Several measures of economic activity in the euro zone have disappointed in recent weeks.

其警示现已成真。近周，欧元区的几项经济活动措施表现令人失望。

The much-touted "euroboom" that began in 2017 has run its course.

2017年开始的且备受吹捧的“欧元繁荣”按部就班。

The slowdown was first thought to be temporary.

起初认为经济放缓是暂时性的。

At the start of 2018 sluggish³ growth in Germany, the bloc's largest economy,

2018年年初，欧元区最大经济体德国的经济增长滞缓

was blamed on one-off factors ranging from an outbreak of flu to labour disputes and the timing⁴ of national holidays.

被归咎于流感爆发、劳资纠纷和国家法定假日时间安排等一次性因素。

Weak third-quarter data was chalked up to bottlenecks⁵ in the car industry, which had to meet new emissions⁶ standards for diesel⁷ engines.

第三季度数据的疲软被归咎于汽车行业中的瓶颈，汽车行业必须符合柴油机的排放新标准。

In the fourth quarter the populist gilets jaunes protests in France dealt growth another temporary blow.

在第四季度，法国平民主义黄马甲抗议运动给经济增长又一暂时性的打击。

The demonstrations⁸ are expected to have lowered output in the euro zone's second-largest economy by 0.1%.

预计此次游行示威会将欧元区第二大经济体的产出降低0.1%。

But recent figures suggest the economic slowdown is broad-based.

但是近期数据表明经济放缓是没有界限的。

"There is more going on than the one-offs that have continually plagued the euro-zone economy," says Bert Colijn, an economist⁹ at ING, a bank.

ING银行的一名经济学家伯特·科林表示“事实远不止是那些不断困扰欧元区经济的一次性因素”。

"It's not country- or sector-specific anymore. The weakness is widespread," says Felix Huefner of UBS, another bank.

另一家银行UBS的菲力克斯·霍夫纳表示，“这不再是针对某个国家或产业了。疲软波及广泛。”

On January 4th IHS Markit, a data provider, said that in December its euro-zone purchasing managers' index (PMI)

1月4日，数据提供商IHS Markit表示，在12月，本公司的欧元区采购经理人指数（PMI）

—a closely watched gauge¹⁰ of economic activity—fell to a four-year low.

—测量经济活动的一项密切观测标准—降至四年最低点。

PMIS declined in the zone's four largest economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

欧元区四大经济体（德国、法国、意大利和西班牙）的PMIS下降。

Figures released on January 14th revealed that euro-zone industrial production fell by 3.3% year-on-year in November.

1月14日发布的数据显示，11月欧元区行业产量同比下降3.3%。

That is its largest annual decline in six years.

这是6年来最大一次年度下滑。

1 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

2 revving   

v.（使）加速( rev的现在分词 )；（数量、活动等）激增；（使发动机）快速旋转；（使）活跃起来

参考例句：

• The team are revving up for next week's game. 这个队伍对下周的比赛跃跃欲试。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Since the introduction of new techniques, the production has been revving up. 自从新技术的引进，产量一直都在增加。 来自互联网

3 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

4 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

5 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

6 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

7 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

8 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。