2019年经济学人 英国经济(1)

 

Since Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating.

自2016年6月英国投票离开欧盟（EU）以来，脱欧派一直洋洋得意。

Despite the Remain camp's dire¹ predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough.

尽管留欧阵营做出了可怕的预测，但英国的经济似乎运转良好。

But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain's GDP shrank in the second quarter.

但这种得意正在消亡。8月9日公布的数据显示英国第二季度GDP有所下降。

And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty² is doing subtle but serious economic damage.

也有越来越多的研究表明，和脱欧相关的不确定正在造成微妙但严重的经济损害。

A paper published early this year by Meredith Crowley,

今年年初，由剑桥大学的梅雷迪思·克劳利、

Oliver Exton and Lu Han of the University of Cambridge reckons that uncertainty over trade policy has dented³ export prospects⁴.

奥利弗·埃克斯顿以及卢汉共同发表的一篇论文认为贸易政策的不确定性削弱了出口前景。

Had the vote not taken place, 5% more firms would have exported new products to the EU in 2016 alone.

如果没有脱欧投票，预计仅在2016年还将会有5%的公司出口新产品。

After the referendum economists⁵ from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham

公投后，来自英国银行、诺丁汉大学以及斯坦福大学的经济学家

and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions.

组建了“决策者小组”，定期对全国各行业和各地区高管进行调查。

In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms,

在一篇新论文中，研究人员对5900家公司的反馈进行了调查，

representing 14% of privatesector jobs, to gauge⁶ the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.

以评估脱欧不确定性对商业的影响，这些公司占私营部门就业岗位的14%。

The results are startling. The uncertainty that comes with a rise in oil prices or an unexpected bank failure can be costly⁷,

结果令人吃惊。油价上涨或银行意外倒闭所带来的不确定性虽然代价高昂，

but typically abates⁸ as more information becomes available. Brexit uncertainty is unusually persistent—

但通常会随着可获得信息的增多而减弱。脱欧的不确定性异常持久—

after all, three years after the vote, the terms of departure are still unclear.

毕竟，投票三年后，脱欧条款仍然不确定。

1 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

2 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

3 dented   

v.使产生凹痕( dent的过去式和过去分词 )；损害；伤害；挫伤（信心、名誉等）

参考例句：

• The back of the car was badly dented in the collision. 汽车尾部被撞后严重凹陷。
• I'm afraid I've dented the car. 恐怕我把车子撞瘪了一些。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

7 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

8 abates   

减少( abate的第三人称单数 )； 减去； 降价； 撤消（诉讼）

参考例句：

• Unless inflation abates, more countries will adopt some form of inflation accounting. 除非通货膨胀率下降，否则将有更多的国家采用某种形式的通货膨胀会计。
• As mating, and fighting abates, males dip again and begin returning inland. 交配和打斗过后，雄性螃蟹再蘸一蘸潮湿的海水，回到内陆。