2021年经济学人 京东,菜鸟,顺丰--中国电商物流鹿死谁手(2)

Contrast that with Cainiao, in which Alibaba has a controlling stake. It does not own many of the logistics assets in its network. Instead it allows around 3,000 logistics companies employing some 3m couriers to plug into its platform. Its aim is to integrate and streamline¹ the vast delivery resources that already exist across China, rather than build its own. The company has teamed up with most large logistics services—and taken investments from them as well. Alibaba, for its part, has bought minority stakes in several large operators as a means of exerting more influence over the industry. Cainiao is not publicly listed and does not disclose many operational details or, for that matter, how exactly it makes money.

将京东物流与阿里巴巴控股的菜鸟相比较。菜鸟网络没有很多物流资产。相反，它允许约3000家物流公司雇佣的大约300万名快递员入驻其平台。其目标是整合和精简中国现有的大量配送资源，而不是建立自己的配送资源。菜鸟与大多数大型物流服务公司合作，并从中获得投资。阿里巴巴则购买了几家大型物流公司的少数股权，以此来对中国物流业施加更多影响。菜鸟没有上市，没有透露许多运营细节，也没有透露其实际的盈利方式。

In terms of revenues, both JD Logistics and Cainiao trail SFSF Express. Similarly to JD Logistics, that firm operates its own network. It still leads the market in “time-definite” delivery, a service that requires couriers to pick up and drop off parcels on a rapid, predetermined timetable. Like FedEx in America but unlike JD and Cainiao, it did not emerge from the tech industry, so lacks its rivals’ technological² chops.

在收入方面，京东物流和菜鸟都比不上顺丰速递。与京东物流类似，顺丰也运营着自己的配送网络。它在送达时效性方面仍处于市场领先地位，这项服务要求快递员按照预定时间表快速接收和派送包裹。与美国联邦快递一样，但与京东和菜鸟不同的是，顺丰并不是起家于科技行业的，因此它不具备竞争对手拥有的技术实力。

Which model emerges victorious³ will ultimately depend on which best controls costs, thinks Eric Lin of UBS, a bank. JD Logistics may have to lower prices further as it tries to get more business beyond JD.com. Analysts⁴ predict it could lose a combined 12bn yuan over the next three years, and turn a profit only in 2024. SF Express is spending heavily to try to match JD’s and Cainiao’s tech prowess. Its share price has fallen by around half since it issued a profit warning in April; it is expected to record a net loss of at least 900m yuan in the first quarter. Jefferies, an investment bank, points to SF Express’s troubles as a clear sign of an ongoing⁵ price war.

瑞银的林育民认为，哪种模式胜出最终将取决于谁最能控制成本。京东物流可能不得不进一步降价，因为它试图发展更多外部业务。分析师预计，京东物流未来三年可能会合计亏损120亿元人民币，到2024年才能实现盈利。顺丰快递正斥巨资打造自身科技实力，以试图赶上京东和财鸟。自4月份发布盈利预警以来，顺丰公司股价已下跌约一半；预计顺丰第一季度将净亏损至少9亿元。投资银行杰弗里斯指出，顺丰面临的困境是价格战持续的明显迹象。

In the long run Cainiao’s asset-light model may enable it to keep spending in check. But for the time being it, too, is thought to be having trouble containing costs. Like its rivals it must fend⁶ off new specialist competitors offering cut-price services in areas like cold-chain and last-mile delivery. Average delivery prices in America have increased by about 5% annually⁷ in recent years, according to Bernstein, a broker⁸. In China they have been falling at an average rate of 10% for the past decade. As China’s online shoppers get their goods ever more quickly, investors⁹ may need to brace¹⁰ for longer waiting times before their logistics returns finally arrive.

从长远来看，菜鸟的轻资产模式也许能够控制开支。但目前看来，人们同样认为菜鸟在控制成本方面遇到了困难。与竞争对手一样，菜鸟必须抵挡会在冷链和最后一英里配送等方面提供降价服务的新晋专业竞争对手。据经纪人伯恩斯坦称，美国近年来的平均配送价格每年增长约5%。在中国，过去十年来的平均降幅为10%。随着中国网购者的收货速度越来越快，投资者可能需要在物流收益最终到达之前等待更长的时间。

1 streamline   

vt.使成流线型；使简化；使现代化

参考例句：

• We must streamline our methods.我们必须简化方法。
• Any liquid or gas passing it will have streamline flow.任何通过它的液体或气体将呈流线型的流动。

2 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

3 victorious   

adj.胜利的，得胜的

参考例句：

• We are certain to be victorious.我们定会胜利。
• The victorious army returned in triumph.获胜的部队凯旋而归。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

6 fend   

v.照料（自己），（自己）谋生，挡开，避开

参考例句：

• I've had to fend for myself since I was 14.我从十四岁时起就不得不照料自己。
• He raised his arm up to fend branches from his eyes.他举手将树枝从他眼前挡开。

7 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

8 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 brace   

n. 支柱,曲柄,大括号; v. 绷紧,顶住,(为困难或坏事)做准备

参考例句：

• My daughter has to wear a brace on her teeth. 我的女儿得戴牙套以矫正牙齿。
• You had better brace yourself for some bad news. 有些坏消息,你最好做好准备。