2021年经济学人 结束新冠的代价是什么?(2)

Mr Agarwal and Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist¹, have now turned this insight into a broader $50bn "proposal to end the covid-19 pandemic". Only $4bn of the headline total is necessary to buy the 350m extra vaccination² courses. The rest is earmarked for other tasks, such as helping³ countries get vaccines⁴ into people's arms, keeping a lookout⁵ for new variants⁶, expanding testing and treatment, and adding another 1bn doses of vaccine-making capacity next year as insurance, in case anything goes wrong. Not everything on their wishlist is costly⁷. The two economists⁸ reckon the developing world could vaccinate⁹ almost 40% of its population by the end of 2021 if rich countries donated even half of the surplus vaccines they are likely to amass¹⁰ this year.

阿加瓦尔和IMF的首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳斯现已将这一见解转化为一项呼声更高的500亿美元“结束新冠肺炎大流行的提议”。只要40亿美元就能购买额外3.5亿剂疫苗。剩下的钱用来完成其他任务，比如帮助各国人民接种疫苗，密切关注新变种，扩大检测和治疗，并在明年增加10亿剂疫苗生产能力，以防出现任何问题。愿望清单并非完成每一项都很昂贵。这两位经济学家认为，到2021年底发展中国家有近40%的人口能够接种疫苗——前提是发达国家能够把他们今年囤积的过剩的疫苗的一半捐献出来。

The proposal is ambitious. But circumspection¹¹ will only make the problems posed by the pandemic harder to fix. Without firm commitments to buy vaccines, manufacturers will have less reason to resolve any bottlenecks¹² in their supply chains. A scarcity¹³ of shots will encourage counterproductive bans on exports of vaccines and materials. If poor countries do not know when vaccines will arrive, they will find it harder to prepare a successful roll-out. And slow vaccination will make new variants more likely.

这项提议雄心勃勃，但谨慎行事只会让大流行带来的问题更难解决。没有购买疫苗的坚定承诺，制造商就不会有太多理由去解决供应链中的任何瓶颈。疫苗的缺乏将导致对疫苗和疫苗材料出口的禁令产生适得其反的效果。如果贫穷国家不知道疫苗何时能够到来，它们会发现准备一次成功的推出会更难。而缓慢的疫苗接种速度将更有可能允许新的变异病毒的产生。

Conversely, anearly end to the pandemic could add as much as $8trn (at market exchange rates) to global GDP spread over the next few years, according to the IMF, and raise tax revenues in the rich world by $1trn. "Funding this proposal", the authors argue,"may possibly be the highest-return public investment ever." Glory, indeed.

相反，根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，疫情的提前结束可能会在未来几年内为全球GDP增加多达8万亿美元(以市场汇率计算)，并使发达国家的税收增加1万亿美元。“资助这项提案”，作者认为，“可能是有史以来回报最高的公共投资。”是一项成就，真的。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 vaccination   

n.接种疫苗，种痘

参考例句：

• Vaccination is a preventive against smallpox.种痘是预防天花的方法。
• Doctors suggest getting a tetanus vaccination every ten years.医生建议每十年注射一次破伤风疫苗。

3 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

4 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

5 lookout   

n.注意，前途，瞭望台

参考例句：

• You can see everything around from the lookout.从了望台上你可以看清周围的一切。
• It's a bad lookout for the company if interest rates don't come down.如果利率降不下来，公司的前景可就不妙了。

6 variants   

n.变体( variant的名词复数 )；变种；变型；（词等的）变体

参考例句：

• Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
• Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样，病毒也有变种，一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句

7 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 vaccinate   

vt.给…接种疫苗；种牛痘

参考例句：

• Local health officials then can plan the best times to vaccinate people.这样，当地的卫生官员就可以安排最佳时间给人们接种疫苗。
• Doctors vaccinate us so that we do not catch smallpox.医生给我们打预防针使我们不会得天花。

10 amass   

vt.积累，积聚

参考例句：

• How had he amassed his fortune?他是如何积累财富的呢？
• The capitalists amass great wealth by exploiting workers.资本家剥削工人而积累了巨额财富。

11 circumspection   

n.细心，慎重

参考例句：

• The quality of being circumspection is essential for a secretary. 作为一个秘书，我想细致周到是十分必要的。 来自互联网
• Circumspection: beware the way of communication, always say good to peoples. 慎言：要说于人于己有利的话，注意沟通方式。 来自互联网

12 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

13 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。