2021年经济学人 电脑芯片(2)

The pandemic thus arrived at the worst possible time. After an early crash, demand in several segments boomed, says Alan Priestley of Gartner, another consultancy. Locked-down consumers bought laptops and other gadgets¹. Cloud-computing operators, which are big consumers of high-end chips, scrambled² to add servers to deal with the wave of home-workers. The car industry was particularly badly hit by a decision to cut orders early in the pandemic. Demand for cars has since recovered. But the complexities³ of the production process means it takes three to four months to turn a blank silicon⁴ wafer into a usable batch⁵ of chips. "I can cancel my orders in an afternoon," says Mr Penn. "If I want to start them up again, that takes months-and anyway, that capacity is now busy serving other customers."

这么说来，疫情发生的时间不能更糟了。另一家咨询公司高德纳的艾伦·普里斯特利表示，在经历了一开始的崩盘后，有几个领域需求激增。被疫情封锁在家的消费者纷纷购置笔记本电脑和其他电子小设备。作为高端芯片的消费大户，云计算运营商忙不迭地添置服务器以应对居家工作者激增。汽车行业在疫情初期决定削减芯片订单，这让它受到的冲击尤其严重。自那以后对汽车的需求已经逐渐恢复，但生产过程的复杂性意味着将一张空白硅片变为一组可用的芯片需要三到四个月的时间。“我取消订单只需一个下午，”佩恩说，“如果我想恢复它们，得花几个月—再说了，这些产能这会儿正忙着服务其他客户呢。”

The impact of the pandemic, in turn, has been made worse by industry-specific problems. In March a chip plant owned by Renesas, a Japanese firm, caught fire, piling pain on the car industry. Some chipmakers, meanwhile, face shortages of their own. Many cheap, workaday parts are made in older factories designed to process silicon wafers that are 200mm in diameter, or even smaller. (These days 300mm is the standard.) Efforts to boost capacity are stymied⁶ by the fact that few toolmakers still make the old-style machines, says Mr Priestley. The market for second- hand 200mm tools, meanwhile, has been stripped bare.

疫情的影响反过来又因为行业特有的一些问题而加剧。3月，日本公司瑞萨科技旗下的一家芯片厂失火，令汽车行业雪上加霜。与此同时，一些芯片制造商自身也面临短缺问题。许多廉价的普通零部件都产自老式工厂，当初建这些工厂就是为了加工直径200毫米或以下的硅片。（现在的标准是300毫米。）普里斯特利说，现在还在生产这类老式机器的工具制造商已经寥寥无几，所以芯片工厂也没办法提高产能。同时，二手市场上生产200毫米硅片的机器早已断货。

But the pork cycle is turning once again. Taiwan Semiconductor⁷ Manufacturing Company, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, plans to spend $3obn on new capacity this year alone. Samsung Electronics and Intel, two other giants, have pencilled in $28bn and $2obn respectively; second-tier chipmakers are ramping⁸ up spending too. That will bring relief to the wider economy, says Mr Priestley,but not immediately. On May 14th Jim Whitehurst, the boss of IBM, a computer-maker, said he thought the shortages might last for two years. And, says Mr Penn, when the drought eventually ends, chipmakers may find they face a familiar problem, but on a bigger scale: a capacity splurge in response to serious shortages today could well mean a sizeable glut⁹ tomorrow.

但猪周期正再度转向。全世界最大的芯片代工厂台积电仅今年就计划在新产能上投入300亿美元。另外两家巨头三星电子和英特尔分别计划投入280亿美元和200亿美元。二线芯片制造商也在加大投入力度。普里斯特利说，这将为更广泛的经济缓解压力，但不会立竿见影。5月14日，计算机制造商IBM的老板吉姆·怀特赫斯特说他认为短缺可能会持续两年。而且，佩恩示，等到短缺最终结束时，芯片制造商可能会发现自己面对一个熟悉的问题，只不过规模会更大：今天为严重短缺而大幅增加产能，很可能会导致明天严重过剩。

1 gadgets   

n.小机械，小器具（ gadget的名词复数 ）

参考例句：

• Certainly. The idea is not to have a house full of gadgets. 当然。设想是房屋不再充满小配件。 来自超越目标英语 第4册
• This meant more gadgets and more experiments. 这意味着要设计出更多的装置，做更多的实验。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史

2 scrambled   

v.快速爬行( scramble的过去式和过去分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Each scrambled for the football at the football ground. 足球场上你争我夺。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He scrambled awkwardly to his feet. 他笨拙地爬起身来。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 complexities   

复杂性(complexity的名词复数)； 复杂的事物

参考例句：

• The complexities of life bothered him. 生活的复杂使他困惑。
• The complexities of life bothered me. 生活的杂乱事儿使我心烦。

4 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

5 batch   

n.一批(组，群)；一批生产量

参考例句：

• The first batch of cakes was burnt.第一炉蛋糕烤焦了。
• I have a batch of letters to answer.我有一批信要回复。

6 stymied   

n.被侵袭的v.妨碍，阻挠( stymie的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Relief efforts have been stymied in recent weeks by armed gunmen. 最近几周的救援工作一直受到武装分子的阻挠。 来自辞典例句
• I was completely stymied by her refusal to help. 由于她拒不相助， 我完全陷入了困境。 来自互联网

7 semiconductor   

n.半导体

参考例句：

• In the beginning,engineers hoped to use semiconductor lasers.在开始时，工程师们希望能够利用半导体激光器。
• The main agent of the company brand semiconductor sales.本公司主要代理各品牌半导体销售。

8 ramping   

土堤斜坡( ramp的现在分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• The children love ramping about in the garden. 孩子们喜欢在花园里追逐嬉戏，闹着玩。
• Have you ever seen a lion ramping around? 你看到过狮子暴跳吗？

9 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。