2021年经济学人 飙升的能源成本如何阻碍经济复苏（1）

Finance and Economics

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How soaring energy costs could hobble the recovery

飙升的能源成本如何阻碍经济复苏

FUEL PRICES over the past month show the same vertiginous¹ upward slope as a covid-19 case count during a particularly brutal² wave.

过去一个月的期货价格显示出与残酷的冠状病毒病例数量一样令人眩晕的上升比率。

Coal and gas prices have touched all-time highs.

煤炭和天然气价格已经触及历史新高。

Asian spot prices for gas have jumped by nearly 1,000% in the past year.

在过去的一年里，亚洲的天然气现货价格上涨了近1000%。

The cost of oil has soared as shortages of other fuels have pushed up demand for crude.

由于其他燃料的短缺推高了原油需求，石油成本飙升。

Surging energy costs are in many respects an expression of the same phenomenon driving supply-chain backlogs³ all over the world.

飙升的能源成本在很多方面都体现了同样的现象，推动了全球供应链的积压。

An unexpectedly strong rebound⁴ in demand has run headlong into stagnant⁵ supply.

需求出人意料地反弹强劲，导致供应停滞不前。

Disruptions, such as shortfalls in hydroelectric-power production caused by droughts, have exacerbated⁶ the shortages.

干旱导致的水电生产短缺等问题加剧了供应短缺。

So has the rush to boost low inventories⁷ in response to the energy crunch⁸.

为应对能源危机而急于增加低库存的做法也是如此。

But surging fuel prices are also more ominous⁹ than supply-chain woes¹⁰.

但燃料价格飙升比供应链问题更令人头大。

Past energy shocks have been associated not only with inflation, but deep recessions, too, as exemplified by the economic travails¹¹ of the 1970s.

过去的能源冲击不仅与通货膨胀有关，还与深度衰退联系在一起，上世纪70年代的经济难题就是例证。

What does the latest crunch hold in store?

最新的危机将会带来什么呢？

The inflationary consequences of costly¹² energy are already apparent.

昂贵的能源带来的通胀后果已经很明显了。

In the euro area, headline annual inflation jumped to 3.4% in September, thanks to a 17.4% leap in energy costs.

在欧元区，由于能源成本激增17.4%，9月份年度通胀率跃升至3.4%。

Underlying¹³ "core" inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) rose by a more modest 1.9%.

潜在的“核心”通胀（不包括食品和能源价格）上升了1.9%。

In America underlying inflation ran hotter in September, at 4%.

在美国，潜在的通货膨胀率在9月份更高，达到了4%。

But a 24.8% increase in energy costs pushed the headline rate up even higher, to 5.4%.

但24.8%的能源成本涨幅将整体通胀率推高至5.4%。

These figures are likely to rise further in coming months, since rocketing fuel prices in October have not yet made their way into the statistics.

这些数字在未来几个月可能会进一步上升，因为10月份飞涨的燃油价格尚未计入统计数据。

The contribution of energy to inflation will begin to fade once prices plateau—as they may in coming months, and even sooner if winter proves no colder than usual.

一旦价格趋于稳定，能源对通胀的贡献将开始减弱，未来几个月可能会这样，如果冬天不比往常更冷的话，这种情况可能会出现的更早。

Recent analysis by economists¹⁴ at Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggests that the effect of energy costs on America’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 2.15 percentage points in September

高盛银行的经济学家最近的分析表明，九月能源成本对美国同比通货膨胀率的影响为2.15个百分点，

and will likely rise to 2.5 percentage points by the end of this year—taking the headline rate to 5.8%, holding other components¹⁵ constant—before eventually turning slightly negative by the end of 2022.

到今年年底可能会上升到2.5个百分点，将整体通胀率提高到5.8%，其他组成部分保持不变，最终在2022年底变得略有负值。

What about the damage to growth?

那么对经济增长造成的损害呢？

The predominant factor, in the near term at least, is the effect on consumption and investment.

至少在短期内，最主要因素是对消费和投资的影响。

Over short time horizons, households and firms cannot easily cut energy use in response to rising costs, leaving less to spend on other goods and services.

短期内，家庭和企业无法轻易地减少能源消耗以应对成本上升，相应地会减少在其他商品和服务上的支出。

This effect, according to work by Paul Edelstein of State Street, a bank, and Lutz Kilian of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is concentrated in the consumption of durable¹⁶ goods; a rise of 10% in the price of energy is associated with a 4.7% decline in spending on durables¹⁷ (and a particularly large drop in purchases of vehicles).

根据道富银行的保罗·埃德尔斯坦和达拉斯联邦储备银行的卢茨·基利安研究，这种影响集中在耐用品的消费上；能源价格上涨10%会导致消费品指数下降4.7%（汽车购买量降幅尤其大）。

Yet the researchers also note that consumption tends to fall by more in response to rising fuel costs than you might expect given the share of energy in budgets.

然而，研究人员也注意到，考虑到能源在预算中的份额，由于燃料成本上涨，消费量的下降幅度往往比你预期的要多。

That seems to be because energy shocks tend to depress sentiment.

这似乎是因为能源冲击往往会抑制情绪。

1 vertiginous   

adj.回旋的；引起头晕的

参考例句：

• House prices continued their vertiginous decline,with the US,UK,Spain and Ireland leading the way.房屋价格继续他们的旋转式下降，美国、英国、西班牙和爱尔兰引领着这个趋势。
• My small mind contained in earthly human limits,not lost in vertiginous space and elements unknown.我的狭隘思想局限在人类世俗之中，不会

2 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。

3 backlogs   

积压未办之事( backlog的名词复数 )； 没交付的订货； 备用； 备用物

参考例句：

• "You'll need kindling and medium wood and logs and backlogs. “点火柴、引火柴、原木、垫底的，你都用得着。” 来自名作英译部分
• Our manufacturers have heavy backlogs on their hands. 我们的生产厂商手头有许多积压而没有交付的订单。

4 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

5 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

6 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

8 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

9 ominous   

adj.不祥的，不吉的，预兆的，预示的

参考例句：

• Those black clouds look ominous for our picnic.那些乌云对我们的野餐来说是个不祥之兆。
• There was an ominous silence at the other end of the phone.电话那头出现了不祥的沉默。

10 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

11 travails   

n.艰苦劳动( travail的名词复数 )；辛勤努力；痛苦；分娩的阵痛

参考例句：

• In the and travails of businesses you'll always need hometown help. 就算你的业务扩大到其他城市，也不要忘了你的发源地。 来自互联网
• Tata Motor's travails with Land Rover and Jaguar spring to mind as recent less-than-favorable examples. 印度塔塔汽车公司对陆虎和捷豹品牌的辛苦收购就是最近一个不如人意的例子。 来自互联网

12 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

13 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

14 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

16 durable   

adj.持久的，耐久的

参考例句：

• This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
• They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。

17 durables   

n.持久的，耐用的( durable的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Running at 50-year lows below trend. Move from durables to services consumption could be big. 在低于趋势线的50年最低水平下，从耐用品消费到服务消费的转变可能很大。 来自互联网
• The table below shows the consumer durables owned in Britain from 1972 to 1983. 该图表展现的是1972-1983十一年间英国耐久消费品的拥有量。 来自互联网