经济学人55:又一个希腊？The new Greece?

 　　Oil and the world economy

　　原油和世界经济

　　The new Greece?

　　又一个希腊？

　　How to assess the risks of a 2012 oil shock

　　如何评价2012石油危机的风险

　　WITH the euro crisis in abeyance¹, high oil prices have become the latest source of worry for the world economy. “Oil is the new Greece” is a typical headline on a recent report by HSBC analysts². The fear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy³; tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than $5 a barrel on March 1st, to $128, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline⁴. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at $125, crude is still 16% costlier⁵ than at the start of the year.

　　欧元危机悬而未决，高油价又令世界经济为之头痛。在汇丰银行分析师最近的报道中，头条便是“原油成为又一个希腊” ，这种担忧是可以理解的。国际原油市场变幻莫测，伊朗局势依然紧张。据一家伊朗媒体报道，一次爆炸损坏了沙特阿拉伯一条至关重要的石油管道。布伦特原油价格应声上扬，三月一号每桶价格暴涨到128美元，涨幅超过5美元。随后沙特当局否认了这一报道，价格出现一定回落，但依然高达125美元，原油价格较年初上涨16%。

　　Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is driving up the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? And what damage could plausible⁶ future increases do?

　　要评估随之而来的风险，就得回答以下四个问题：是什么在推高油价？油价会高到什么地步？到目前为止，价格上涨可能带来的经济影响是什么？未来似乎合理的价格增长会造成怎样的损害？

　　The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to global growth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequent explanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse⁷ has sent oil prices higher. In recent months the world’s big central banks have all either injected liquidity⁸, expanded quantitative⁹ easing (printing money to buy bonds) or promised to keep rates low for longer. This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors¹⁰ into hard assets, especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than the enactment¹¹ of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE (see Buttonwood). Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a rise in oil inventories—exactly the opposite of what has happened.

　　其中较高价格的起源关系重大。举例来说，供给冲击对全球增长的危害要远大于需求增加导致的价格上涨。一种常见的解释是，中央银行增加货币供给推动了价格上涨。最近的几个月里，世界各大央行都向市场注入了流动性，实行量化宽松政策（印更多的钞票购买债券）或者承诺现行的低利率将维持一段时间。这样一大批廉价货币让投资者涌入了硬资产领域，特别是石油，因此争论还在继续。但由于市场具有前瞻性，所以左右油价的应该是官方声明而不是量化宽松政策的实施。实际上，美联储主席本﹒伯南克并没有签署另一轮量化宽松政策（见《梧桐》），这一举动无疑挫败了市场信心。此外，如果价格被投机者操控，那么原油存货应该增加，而事实却恰好相反。

　　Central banks may have affected¹² oil indirectly¹³, by raising global growth prospects¹⁴, which in turn buoy¹⁵ expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. The recent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: a euro-zone catastrophe¹⁶ and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and America’s recovery seems on stronger ground.

　　中央银行可以通过上调全球经济增长预期间接地影响原油价格,转而提升原油需求的增长预期。有间接证据支撑这一论点。最近的油价上涨与对世界经济的过分乐观是一致的：欧元区的灾难和中国的硬着陆似乎都不太可能上演，美国经济复苏的后劲十足。

　　But slightly rosier¹⁷ growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver of dearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than 1m barrels a day (b/d) of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from a pipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, have knocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil is temporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a payment dispute with China.

　　但稍微乐观了一点的增长预期只是故事的一个部分，高油价一个更重要的推动因素是供给中断。总而言之，在最近几个月里，国际原油市场大概每天要减少一百万桶的原油供给。从南苏丹石油管道纠纷到北海机械故障，各种各样的非伊朗问题每天就会减少70万桶的原油供给量，另外50万桶左右临时的伊朗石油供给减少要归因于欧盟制裁和与中国的支付纠纷。

　　The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. The extent of OPEC’s spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, a near-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply a disruption to dwarf¹⁸ any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo¹⁹, for instance, involved less than 5m b/d.

　　备用原油的缓冲效果已经不太显著，其中富国的原油储备处于五年来的历史低位。欧佩克的剩余产能大小无法确定，而沙特阿拉伯正在创造历史新高——以每天1000万桶的速度生产原油。如果伊朗真的关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这里每天有1700万桶原油通过，大约占世界原油供给量的20%——那么将会出现更大的供给中断威胁。即使只是暂时关闭，所带来的负面影响也将超过以前任何一次原油冲击。例如，在1973年阿拉伯石油禁运中，每天的原油供给减少多达500万桶。

　　Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckons that the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel. He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iran improve, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.

　　分离出这些不同的因素有一定难度，但高盛公司的杰弗里?柯里估计，供给和需求的基本面已经推动油价达到每桶118美元左右，余下的增长源于对伊朗问题的担忧。按照他的说法，如果改善与伊朗的关系，石油价格可能下行几美元，但仍会接近120美元。

　　Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in the first year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, who tend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed²⁰ by improvements elsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects for global growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.

　　在全球范围内，价格上涨造成的伤害到目前为止可能还是适度的。有一条经验法则是油价每持续增长10%，全球经济增长率就会下跌0.2%，很大程度上是因为高油价将收入从石油消费者转向生产者，所以生产者往往损失更小。现在几乎可以肯定地说，其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何冲击，尤其是解决欧元危机。尽管油价高涨，全球经济增长的前景依然好于年初。

　　But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a net importer which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices (which corresponds to a 25-cent rise in the price of petrol) knocks around 0.2% off output in the first year and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that is widely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.

　　但是对经济增长和通胀的影响在不同的国家是有所区别的。美国作为一个石油净进口国和燃油税负较轻的国家，一个标准的规则是：石油价格增长10美元（相当于汽油价格增长25美分），会降低第一年0.2%左右的产出，第二年则会下降约0.5%。普遍预期其今年的经济增长将超过2%，看来增长会减速，但不太可能下降。

　　There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil than in recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Rising employment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And America’s economy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oil consumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.

　　在任何情况下,美国都可以比近年来更有效地抵御昂贵的石油。究其原因，可以有以下几点：汽油价格的涨幅远小于2011年或2008年；逐步上升的就业给予消费者更多收入,从而用它来支付燃料花销；以及美国经济正在远离能源密集型,更少地依赖进口。在过去的两年里, GDP上涨的同时石油消费却在下降。

　　Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports are well below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oil stays within its borders. The development of copious²¹ amounts of natural gas means gas prices have plunged²². That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heating unusually low. In January the share of consumers’ spending on energy products was the second-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious²³ to spiking²⁴ oil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.

　　美国人比以前少开车了,他们在购买油耗更低的汽车。净进口的石油远低于2005年的高峰时期,也就意味着美国人把更多的钱花在昂贵的石油上面并停留在美国境内。大规模发展天然气意味着天然气价格开始大幅下降。再加上异常温和的冬季,家庭供暖开销也异常之低。今年一月份,消费者的能源产品支出份额在近50年中处于第二低位。虽然这些因素并不意味着美国能够独善其身,但它们确实表明了价格上涨的影响是有限的。

　　Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, have typically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time they may be relatively²⁵ more affected, because most economies are already stagnant²⁶ or shrinking. Worse, Europe’s weakest peripheral²⁷ economies are also some of the biggest net importers. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawn²⁸ a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.

　　欧洲更明显。欧洲国家的石油税负比美国更重,通常可以看出油价的增长变化对其造成较小的影响。但这次他们可能相对更容易受影响,因为大部分经济体已经停滞或萎缩。更糟的是,欧洲最弱的边缘经济体中也有一些位于最大的石油净进口国之列。举例来说,希腊是个高度依赖能源进口的国家,而其中88%是石油。目前的价格上涨将进一步加剧欧元区衰退,一个大的跳跃就可能造成深刻的经济倒退并摧毁市场信心.

　　Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources in the North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially²⁹ offset³⁰ by gains in the oil and gas sector³¹ itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date could be more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds³² of sharply falling inflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakers hoped to see the economy improve this year.

　　英国相对安全。尽管英国是一个石油净进口国,但它在北海有明显的资源优势，消费者在昂贵的燃料上产生的任何损失都能被石油和天然气行业增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此，油价上涨对英国的影响也比以往更为不利, 特别是因为它们减少了通货膨胀急剧下降的可能性。低通货膨胀和增加的实际收入,是英国决策者所希望看到的今年经济改善的一个方面。

　　Barrels, no laughs

　　百不一贷

　　In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and 2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less of a worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of most emerging economies’ consumption basket, are stable.

　　新兴经济体之间的差异更大。从委内瑞拉到中东, 石油出口国都是贸易顺差，而石油进口国将会面临不断恶化的贸易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料价格高昂是新兴经济体通货膨胀的主要原因。但如今不同了，占多数新型经济体消费组合很大比重的食品价格较为稳定。

　　But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emerging economies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil but also from the weakening of European export markets.

　　但是有些国家将面临一些问题。在短期内,一些受冲击最大的新兴经济体将会出现在东欧。他们将忍受的不仅仅是愈加昂贵的石油价格，还有不断疲软的欧洲出口市场。

　　India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component³³ of its wholesale-price index, for example, so inflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To the extent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulates—and heavily subsidises—the price of diesel³⁴ and kerosene³⁵. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only 31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. The difference is a result of subsidies³⁶, frustrating³⁷ India’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit³⁸.

　　印度也被波及。燃料是其批发价格指数一个很大的组成部分,因此，高油价将通过国内燃料成本导致通货膨胀率上升。印度调控并大量补贴柴油和煤油价格，这一点反映在财政预算上。据德意志银行统计,从2009年1月开始柴油价格上涨了31%,而在卢比市场原油价格已增长了180%。所不同的是补贴政策的效果——挫败印度减少预算赤字的努力。

　　So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth. But it is not helping³⁹ Europe’s more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.

　　所以石油不是又一个神话。高企的石油价格对全球经济增长的危害会少一些，但这并不能缓解欧洲愈加脆弱的经济。如果霍尔木兹海峡的正常运营受到威胁,油价上涨将会宣告全球复苏的结束。

1 abeyance   

n.搁置，缓办，中止，产权未定

参考例句：

• The question is in abeyance until we know more about it.问题暂时搁置，直到我们了解更多有关情况再行研究。
• The law was held in abeyance for well over twenty years.这项法律被搁置了二十多年。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 edgy   

adj.不安的；易怒的

参考例句：

• She's been a bit edgy lately,waiting for the exam results.她正在等待考试结果，所以最近有些焦躁不安。
• He was nervous and edgy, still chain-smoking.他紧张不安，还在一根接一根地抽着烟。

4 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

5 costlier   

adj.昂贵的( costly的比较级 )；代价高的；引起困难的；造成损失的

参考例句：

• Alligator skin is five times more costlier than leather. 鳄鱼皮比通常的皮革要贵5倍。 来自互联网
• Disagreements among creditors can be costlier still. 债权人之间的分歧会加大重组的费用。 来自互联网

6 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

7 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

8 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

9 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 enactment   

n.演出，担任…角色；制订，通过

参考例句：

• Enactment refers to action.演出指行为的表演。
• We support the call for the enactment of a Bill of Rights.我们支持要求通过《权利法案》的呼声。

12 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

13 indirectly   

adv.间接地，不直接了当地

参考例句：

• I heard the news indirectly.这消息我是间接听来的。
• They were approached indirectly through an intermediary.通过一位中间人，他们进行了间接接触。

14 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

15 buoy   

n.浮标；救生圈；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The party did little to buoy up her spirits.这次聚会并没有让她振作多少。
• The buoy floated back and forth in the shallow water.这个浮标在浅水里漂来漂去。

16 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

17 rosier   

Rosieresite

参考例句：

• Rosier for an instant forgot the delicacy of his position. 罗齐尔一时间忘记了他的微妙处境。
• A meeting had immediately taken place between the Countess and Mr. Rosier. 伯爵夫人和罗齐尔先生已经搭讪上了。

18 dwarf   

n.矮子，侏儒，矮小的动植物；vt.使…矮小

参考例句：

• The dwarf's long arms were not proportional to his height.那侏儒的长臂与他的身高不成比例。
• The dwarf shrugged his shoulders and shook his head. 矮子耸耸肩膀，摇摇头。

19 embargo   

n.禁运（令）；vt.对...实行禁运，禁止（通商）

参考例句：

• This country put an oil embargo on an enemy country.该国对敌国实行石油禁运。
• During the war,they laid an embargo on commerce with enemy countries.在战争期间，他们禁止与敌国通商。

20 outweighed   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的过去式和过去分词 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• This boxer outweighed by his opponent 20 pounds. 这个拳击选手体重比他的对手重20磅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She outweighed me by ten pounds, and sometimes she knocked me down. 她的体重超过我十磅，有时竟把我撞倒。 来自百科语句

21 copious   

adj.丰富的，大量的

参考例句：

• She supports her theory with copious evidences.她以大量的例证来充实自己的理论。
• Every star is a copious source of neutrinos.每颗恒星都是丰富的中微子源。

22 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

23 impervious   

adj.不能渗透的，不能穿过的，不易伤害的

参考例句：

• He was completely impervious to criticism.他对批评毫不在乎。
• This material is impervious to gases and liquids.气体和液体都透不过这种物质。

24 spiking   

n.尖峰形成v.加烈酒于( spike的现在分词 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。 来自辞典例句
• We could be spiking our own guns. 我们可能要遭到失败。 来自辞典例句

25 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

26 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

27 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

28 spawn   

n.卵，产物，后代，结果；vt.产卵，种菌丝于，产生，造成；vi.产卵，大量生产

参考例句：

• The fish were madly pushing their way upstream to spawn.鱼群为产卵而疯狂地向上游挤进。
• These fish will lay spawn in about one month from now.这些鱼大约一个月内会产卵。

29 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

30 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

31 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

32 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

33 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

34 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

35 kerosene   

n.(kerosine)煤油，火油

参考例句：

• It is like putting out a fire with kerosene.这就像用煤油灭火。
• Instead of electricity,there were kerosene lanterns.没有电，有煤油灯。

36 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

37 frustrating   

adj.产生挫折的，使人沮丧的，令人泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的现在分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's frustrating to have to wait so long. 要等这么长时间，真令人懊恼。
• It was a demeaning and ultimately frustrating experience. 那是一次有失颜面并且令人沮丧至极的经历。 来自《简明英汉词典》

38 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

39 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。