经济学人80:亚马逊还能走多远?

 Technology技术How far can Amazon go?

亚马逊还能走多远？

It has upended industries and changed the way the world shops. But it should beware of abusing its power亚马逊颠覆了传统产业，甚至改变了世界的消费方式。但现在应该谨防它滥用其主导地位。

WHEN Jeff Bezos left his job in finance and moved to Seattle 20 years ago to start a new firm, he rented a house with a garage, as that was where the likes of Apple and HP had been born. Although he started selling books, he called the firm Amazon because a giant river reflected the scale of his ambitions. This week the world's leading e-commerce company unveiled its first smartphone, which Amazon treats less as a communication device than an ingenious shopping platform and a way of gathering¹ data about people in order to make even more accurate product recommendations.

20年前，当杰夫·贝佐斯从金融行业辞职来到西雅图时，他租了一套带有车库的房子，在此之前，像苹果和惠普等巨头都是从类似这样的车库里诞生的。虽然杰夫是以卖书起家的，但他却给公司起名为亚马逊，以这条流域最广的河流命名，充分的彰显了其野心。本周，这家全球领先的电子商务公司，推出了其首款智能手机，但在亚马逊看来，其主要目的并不是这款通讯设备，而是开创一个独特的购物平台，以及创建一个用户数据收集平台，以便更好的了解客户需求，并推出相应的产品。

亚马逊.jpgThe smartphone is typical of Amazon. There is the remorseless expansion: if you can deliver books and washing machines, why not a phone? There is the ability to switch between the real world of atoms and the digital world of bits: Amazon has one of the world's most impressive physical distribution systems, even as it has branched out into cloud computing², e-books, video streaming and music downloads (see article). There is the drive for market share over immediate³ profits. And there is the slightly creepy feeling that Amazon knows too much about its users already. So far its insatiable appetite has helped consumers; but as it grows in size and power the danger is that it will go too far.

这款智能手机极具亚马逊的特色。它始终在坚持不懈的扩张其业务：如果你能配送书和洗衣机，那为什么不能配送手机呢？它有着在现实世界和数字空间之间交替跳跃的能力。亚马逊拥有世界上最令人钦佩的物流系统，同时还扩展到云计算，电子书，视频流媒体和音乐下载等（见文章）。相比较于眼前利益，亚马逊更趋向于市场占有额的获取。不得不说的是，人们认为，亚马逊对用户的了解过于详细，甚至有些让人毛骨悚然。迄今为止，它对数据的需求，虽有些贪得无厌，但还是对客户有帮助。但是随着亚马逊的规模不断扩大，能力的不断提升，该公司可能会走的过远，以至于无法回头。

Customers who bought this item also bought…购买过此商品的人还购买过…For the moment, admiration⁴ should count for more than fear. Many things the world now takes for granted were introduced by Mr Bezos. Typing your credit-card number into a web browser⁵ was once considered a sign of insanity⁶ until Amazon showed how easy and safe buying things online could be. Once people had bought a book, they tried other things. Today the global e-commerce market is worth $1.5 trillion.

就目前而言，人们对亚马逊尊敬大于恐惧。如今许多人们认为理所当然的事，都是出自贝佐斯先生之手。在浏览器中输入信用卡号码曾被认为是一种很疯狂的行为，知道亚马逊证实了网上购物的便利性和安全性。一旦人们成功购买了一本书，他们就会想要买更多的东西。如今，全球电子商务市场份额已达到1.5万亿美元。

Amazon also fostered the emergence⁷ of customer reviews. From the start it let buyers rate and review books. This still irks some professional critics, and some of the most fulsome⁸ five-star ratings may be from spouses⁹ of authors. But overall they provide valuable advice to buyers. Today everything from apps to hotels to hoses can be rated online, and retail¹⁰ websites seem incomplete without customer reviews.

除此之外，亚马逊还催生出了用户点评模式。从创立之初，亚马逊便允许买家对图书进行评分及评论。这仍然为一些专业评书人所不齿，而且一些过度赞美的五星评价也很可能出至作者的亲属。但总的而言，这种方式确实可以给买家提供一些有价值的建议。如今，从应用到酒店都可以在网上接受用户评价，甚至没有用户评价的网页会给人感觉少了些什么。

Then there are the industries it has upended. Books came first. Amazon has changed publishing twice—first by making any book in the world quickly available and then by making e-books mainstream¹¹. Before Amazon launched the Kindle¹² in 2007, e-readers were fiddly gadgets¹³ that few people used. The Kindle was easy to use, worked anywhere and allowed instant delivery straight to the device (rather than via a PC). Amazon also pioneered a new model for cloud computing. In 2006 it began renting out computer capacity by the hour. The option to rent rather than buy computing power greatly reduced the cost and complexity¹⁴ of launching a new company. Amazon's cloud services have since been used by startups including Netflix, Instagram, Pinterest, Spotify and Airbnb, and have spawned¹⁶ a whole new industry.

此外，亚马逊还颠覆了许多行业，其中图书首当其冲。亚马逊已经改变了两次出版行业。一次是通过网络书店方便人们购书，第二次则是通过电子书方便人们随时阅读。在2007，亚马逊推出Kindle之前，电子书只是一种小众设备。因为Kindle非常易用，可以随时随地使用，而且可以在不借助PC的情况下，能够立即将图书下载到设备中。亚马逊还推出了一种全新的云计算方法。在2006年便开始按照时间出租计算资源。这种以租代购的方式大大降低了公司的创业成本及复杂度。亚马逊的云端服务还被广泛的应用于像Netflix，Instagram，Pinterest, Spotify 和Airbnb这样的新创公司，甚至还催生出了一些全新的产业。

Apple may be better known as an innovator¹⁷, but Amazon may have had just as big an impact on the workings of the digital world. And it keeps on experimenting. Unconstrained by a self-image as a company that does a particular thing, Amazon has dabbled¹⁸ in areas from internet search to robotics to film and television development.

作为创新者，苹果显然更为人知，但在数字空间的运作上，亚马逊好像有更巨大的影响。而且它还在不断探索。但亚马逊并不是局限在单一的业务上，在不断尝试中，亚马逊从互联网搜索发展到机器人，从电影到电视制作。

Indeed, if your glasses are particularly rose-tinted, Amazon seems to have put the “long term” back into Anglo-Saxon capitalism¹⁹. At a time when Wall Street is obsessed²⁰ by quarterly results and share buy-backs, Amazon has made it clear to shareholders²¹ that, given a choice between making a profit and investing in new areas, it will always choose the latter. While other technology giants sit on record piles of cash, Amazon still has plenty of ideas about where to invest and innovate²². And investors²³ seem happy with it: Amazon's price-to-earnings²⁴ ratio has exceeded 3,500 at times. It aligns²⁵ top executives' interests with those of shareholders by paying them largely in stock: its highest salary is $175,000 a year.

事实上，如果你足够乐观，亚马逊似乎在把“长期视角”重新带回盎格鲁萨克逊资本主义。在当今，普遍看重于季度业绩和股票回购的华尔街，亚马逊却向股东明确表示：每当面临短期利润和投资机会二选其一的命题时，它总会选择后者。在其他科技巨头在大量累积现金的时候，亚马逊仍在努力投资创新。投资者似乎也乐见于此：亚马逊的市盈率已经超过3500倍。通过用股票作为对股东的支付手段，将高管利益与股东利益捆绑在一起：高管的最高年薪是17.5万美元。

Giant selection, tiny tax bill巨大的选择，微小的税收方案The problem is that many of these virtues²⁶ come with accompanying vices¹⁵. Amazon stands accused of unfair competition—of being a lousy employer, dodging²⁷ tax and bullying²⁸ its rivals. Amazon says median pay in its American warehouses²⁹ is 30% higher than in large retail stores. On tax, the picture is a little more nuanced. The main reason its tax bill is so low is that it does not make profits, but Amazon has also been extremely aggressive in (legally) booking profits to low-tax countries. Having campaigned against sales taxes for online transactions for many years, it has lately changed its tune³⁰, and now collects sales taxes in a growing number of American states.

问题在于，在这许多的优点之中依然伴随着许多缺点。亚马逊被指责不公平竞争，用工环境不佳，避税和欺凌对手。亚马逊对此表示，其在美国仓库的薪水中值比大型零售商还要高出30%。在税收上，可能有一些很微妙的情况。亚马逊的税收之所以很低，是因为其利润并不高，但不可否认的是，亚马逊也在积极地采取合法方式将利润转移至税率低的国家。在反对了那么多年的网上交易税后，亚马逊最近却改变了态度，开始在美国的越来越多的州代收营业税。

As for bullying competitors, most of this is just the savage³¹ magic of capitalism. Amazon has crushed local bookshops but only in the same way that Tesco and Walmart crushed grocers—by providing a cheaper, easier way to shop. However antitrust regulators must ensure it is not abusing its market power, on a case-by-case basis. For instance, Amazon's current dispute with Hachette, a large publisher, may largely be a standard tussle³² between retailer³³ and supplier. But when the dominant³⁴ seller of e-books removes pre-order buttons and makes delivery times longer for Hachette books, that hardly squares with Mr Bezos's professed³⁵ emphasis on customer service.

至于欺凌弱小的竞争对手，大部分的只是资本主义的野蛮魔法。亚马逊像乐购和沃尔玛摧毁杂货商们一样，用提供更便宜，更方便的购物方式来摧毁当地的书店。然而在这个案子的基础上，反垄断监管机制必须确保它不会滥用其市场支配力。例如，亚马逊目前与大型出版商，阿歇特的竞争，很大程度上可能是一个零售商和供应商之间的争斗。但当主要的电子书销售商删除预订按钮时，将会使阿歇特的图书交货时间延长。这很难符合贝佐斯先生所强调的重视客户服务。

Perhaps the biggest concern about Amazon is, paradoxically, a consequence of its long-term vision. It is hard to compete with a company whose shareholders do not expect it to make a profit. Its vast scale and willingness to operate at zero or negative margins³⁶ represent high barriers to entry for potential competitors. This cannot go on for ever. The concern is that Amazon is merely waiting for rivals to go out of business before raising its prices. If that happens, regulators should jump on it hard. That would provide an opportunity for another firm—China's Alibaba, say—and some investors might rue³⁷ the Amazon earnings that never came. But consumers would once again win, as indeed they generally have done as Mr Bezos's scrappy startup has expanded its reach into so many aspects of everyday life或许，在众多矛盾之中，亚马逊最令人担忧的还是其长期远景。要与一个连股东都不想赚钱的公司竞争，难度是可想而知的。它庞大的规模和不惜亏本的经营态度，给潜在的竞争对手设立了一道不小的门槛。但这种情况不会一直持续下去，人们担心的仅仅是在等待一个个竞争对手逐一退出市场后，再抬高价格。如果出现这种情况，监管部门该强势介入。但这样便会给其他公司，诸如中国的阿里巴巴，提供机会。而一些投资者可能会因为盈利遥遥无期而抛弃亚马逊。但消费者将再次获益，而在贝佐斯的这家生机勃勃的创业公司逐步渗透到我们生活的方方面面时，这已经成为常态。

1 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

2 computing   

n.计算

参考例句：

• to work in computing 从事信息处理
• Back in the dark ages of computing, in about 1980, they started a software company. 早在计算机尚未普及的时代（约1980年），他们就创办了软件公司。

3 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

4 admiration   

n.钦佩，赞美，羡慕

参考例句：

• He was lost in admiration of the beauty of the scene.他对风景之美赞不绝口。
• We have a great admiration for the gold medalists.我们对金牌获得者极为敬佩。

5 browser   

n.浏览者

参考例句：

• View edits in a web browser.在浏览器中看编辑的效果。
• I think my browser has a list of shareware links.我想在浏览器中会有一系列的共享软件链接。

6 insanity   

n.疯狂，精神错乱；极端的愚蠢，荒唐

参考例句：

• In his defense he alleged temporary insanity.他伪称一时精神错乱，为自己辩解。
• He remained in his cell,and this visit only increased the belief in his insanity.他依旧还是住在他的地牢里，这次视察只是更加使人相信他是个疯子了。

7 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

8 fulsome   

adj.可恶的，虚伪的，过分恭维的

参考例句：

• They tried to please him with fulsome compliments and extravagant gifts.他们想用溢美之词和奢华的礼品来取悦他。
• Newspapers have been fulsome in their praise of the former president.报纸上对前总统都是些溢美之词。

9 spouses   

n.配偶，夫或妻( spouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Jobs are available for spouses on campus and in the community. 校园里和社区里有配偶可做的工作。 来自辞典例句
• An astonishing number of spouses-most particularly in the upper-income brackets-have no close notion of their husbands'paychecks. 相当大一部分妇女——特别在高收入阶层——并不很了解他们丈夫的薪金。 来自辞典例句

10 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

11 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

12 kindle   

v.点燃，着火

参考例句：

• This wood is too wet to kindle.这木柴太湿点不着。
• A small spark was enough to kindle Lily's imagination.一星光花足以点燃莉丽的全部想象力。

13 gadgets   

n.小机械，小器具（ gadget的名词复数 ）

参考例句：

• Certainly. The idea is not to have a house full of gadgets. 当然。设想是房屋不再充满小配件。 来自超越目标英语 第4册
• This meant more gadgets and more experiments. 这意味着要设计出更多的装置，做更多的实验。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史

14 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

15 vices   

缺陷( vice的名词复数 )； 恶习； 不道德行为； 台钳

参考例句：

• In spite of his vices, he was loved by all. 尽管他有缺点，还是受到大家的爱戴。
• He vituperated from the pulpit the vices of the court. 他在教堂的讲坛上责骂宫廷的罪恶。

16 spawned   

（鱼、蛙等）大量产（卵）( spawn的过去式和过去分词 )； 大量生产

参考例句：

• The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
• The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展，许多新公司纷纷成立。

17 innovator   

n.改革者；创新者

参考例句：

• The young technical innovator didn't lose heart though the new system was not yet brought into a workable condition. 尽管这种新方法尚未达到切实可行的状况，这位青年技术革新者也没有泄气。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Caesar planned vast projects and emerged as a great innovator. 恺撒制定了庞大的革新计划。 来自英汉非文学 - 文明史

18 dabbled   

v.涉猎( dabble的过去式和过去分词 )；涉足；浅尝；少量投资

参考例句：

• He dabbled in business. 他搞过一点生意。 来自辞典例句
• His vesture was dabbled in blood. 他穿的衣服上溅满了鲜血。 来自辞典例句

19 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

20 obsessed   

adj.心神不宁的,鬼迷心窍的,沉迷的

参考例句：

• He's obsessed by computers. 他迷上了电脑。
• The fear of death obsessed him throughout his old life. 他晚年一直受着死亡恐惧的困扰。

21 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任

22 innovate   

v.革新，变革，创始

参考例句：

• We must innovate in order to make progress.我们必须改革以便取得进步。
• It is necessary to innovate and develop military theories.创新和发展军事理论是必要的。

23 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

24 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

25 aligns   

使成一线( align的第三人称单数 )； 排整齐； 校准； 公开支持（某人、集体或观点）

参考例句：

• HASP SRM fully aligns with the software product lifecycle. HASPSRM完全遵循软件产品的生命周期。
• Significant employee aligns the interests of our employees and our shareholders. 员工大量持股可以使员工与股东的利益协调一致。

26 virtues   

美德( virtue的名词复数 )； 德行； 优点； 长处

参考例句：

• Doctors often extol the virtues of eating less fat. 医生常常宣扬少吃脂肪的好处。
• She delivered a homily on the virtues of family life. 她进行了一场家庭生活美德方面的说教。

27 dodging   

n.避开，闪过，音调改变v.闪躲( dodge的现在分词 )；回避

参考例句：

• He ran across the road, dodging the traffic. 他躲开来往的车辆跑过马路。
• I crossed the highway, dodging the traffic. 我避开车流穿过了公路。 来自辞典例句

28 bullying   

v.恐吓，威逼( bully的现在分词 )；豪；跋扈

参考例句：

• Many cases of bullying go unreported . 很多恐吓案件都没有人告发。
• All cases of bullying will be severely dealt with. 所有以大欺小的情况都将受到严肃处理。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 warehouses   

仓库，货栈( warehouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee. 威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• Row upon row of newly built warehouses line the waterfront. 江岸新建的仓库鳞次栉比。

30 tune   

n.调子；和谐，协调；v.调音，调节，调整

参考例句：

• He'd written a tune,and played it to us on the piano.他写了一段曲子，并在钢琴上弹给我们听。
• The boy beat out a tune on a tin can.那男孩在易拉罐上敲出一首曲子。

31 savage   

adj.野蛮的；凶恶的，残暴的；n.未开化的人

参考例句：

• The poor man received a savage beating from the thugs.那可怜的人遭到暴徒的痛打。
• He has a savage temper.他脾气粗暴。

32 tussle   

n.&v.扭打，搏斗，争辩

参考例句：

• They began to tussle with each other for the handgun.他们互相扭打起来，抢夺那支手枪。
• We are engaged in a legal tussle with a large pharmaceutical company.我们正同一家大制药公司闹法律纠纷。

33 retailer   

n.零售商(人)

参考例句：

• What are the retailer requirements?零售商会有哪些要求呢？
• The retailer has assembled a team in Shanghai to examine the question.这家零售商在上海组建了一支团队研究这个问题。

34 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

35 professed   

公开声称的，伪称的，已立誓信教的

参考例句：

• These, at least, were their professed reasons for pulling out of the deal. 至少这些是他们自称退出这宗交易的理由。
• Her manner professed a gaiety that she did not feel. 她的神态显出一种她并未实际感受到的快乐。

36 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

37 rue   

n.懊悔，芸香，后悔；v.后悔，悲伤，懊悔

参考例句：

• You'll rue having failed in the examination.你会悔恨考试失败。
• You're going to rue this the longest day that you live.你要终身悔恨不尽呢。