经济学人92:自由贸易 倾斜的海运

 Free exchange自由贸易Tilted marine倾斜的海运New techniques show the damage done by subsidies² at the heart of global trade新方法表明对航运业的补贴具有危害性THERE is no better symbol of the benefits of globalization than the container ship. More than 9 billion tonnes of goods and materials were transported by sea in 2012, with trade helping³ to lift global growth rates. An ever-expanding web of links connects rich and poor; developing countries now account for around 60% of seaborne trade. But ships also show the rotten side of trade: protectionism. In 2006 China enacted⁴ a “Long and Medium-Term Plan” to enlarge its shipping⁵ industry by 2015. It has been successful (see left-hand chart). New research shows its attempts to tilt¹ markets may be having a bigger impact than previously⁶ thought.

没有什么比集装箱船更能代表全球化带来的益处。2012年，超过90亿吨的物资通过海运运输，这些贸易加快了全球增长速度。发达地区与贫困地区之间的联系不断扩大，如今发展中国家占据了海运贸易的60%。然而，船舶市场依然显现了贸易的消极一面：保护主义。2006年，中国颁布了一个截至2015年的以鼓励航运业为目的的“中长期规划”。这个计划目前看来是成功的（见左图）。近期调查显示，中国试图倾斜市场的行为可能比想象中更具冲击力。

航运业.jpgProtectionism in shipping is centuries old. In a 1905 study* Royal Meeker⁷, an American economist⁸, explained how a system of subsidies developed under Elizabeth I. Rewards were based on tonnage of ship, and included “bounties” paid to fishing boats heading for the North Sea in search of herring. Adam Smith provided an early economic analysis in “The Wealth of Nations”, lamenting⁹: “It has, I am afraid, been too common for vessels¹⁰ to fit out for the sole purpose of catching¹¹, not the fish, but the bounty¹².” The handouts¹³ distorted the shipbuilding industry, resulting in an oversize fishing fleet and a misallocation of resources.

航运业保护主义已经有一百年的历史了。美国经济学家罗亚尔·米克在1905年做的一项研究解释了伊丽莎白一世在任期间的补贴制度是怎样制定的。补贴是基于船舶吨位确定的，包括对驶往北海捕获鲱鱼的渔船提供的奖金。亚当·斯密在《国富论》中给出了一个早期的经济分析，他感叹道：“装配船舶的唯一目的恐怕不是捕鱼，而是为了得到津贴。”救济金（补贴）扭曲了造船业，引致了捕捞船队过于庞大、资源配置不当。

Far from avoiding the distortion Smith spotted¹⁴, governments have been keen to nurture¹⁵ it. The early logic¹⁶ was military. A strong merchant fleet meant lots of boats that could be commandeered during times of war. One way to bolster¹⁷ shipping has been to grant lucrative¹⁸ contracts for postal¹⁹ delivery: Britain's Cunard lines benefited hugely from such a deal in the 1830s. Another method, used by both America and Japan in the early 1900s, was easy finance, in the form of cut-price government loans.

与斯密所倡导的避免市场扭曲理论相悖甚远，各国政府一直以来都热衷于提供补贴。早期，对航运业提供补贴被认为可以为军事服务。一个强大的商船队意味着战争时期可以征用更多的船舶。鼓励航运业的一种方法是允许签订利润丰厚的邮递合同：英国的丘纳德航运公司在1830年的一笔邮递交易中获利甚多。另一种方法是以廉价政府贷款的形式为航运公司提供便捷的融资，这也是19世纪初美国和日本采取的政策。

Modern shipping subsidies are used to build economic heft rather than military might. Governments like shipping due to the knock-on effects of a booming yard. Modern ships are huge (up to 400m long) and include up to 30,000 parts. Assembling them is labour-intensive, and so is making the parts that outside suppliers provide to the shipyards. A recent report by America's Maritime²⁰ Administration estimated that more than 107,000 people work in the country's heavily protected shipyards. Adding in the companies supporting the yards, and the shops and services that support these workers, the total ran to 400,000, an employment “multiplier” of 4. So, the idea is, by helping shipping a government indirectly²¹ supports workers in many other industries.

现在的航运补贴更多的则是为了加强经济实力，而非军事力量。各国政府青睐航运业是因为建造船厂能够带来一系列连锁效应。现代船舶船型巨大（可达400米长），可囊括零部件多达3万个。供应商制造向船厂提供的零部件，以及组装这些部件都是劳动密集型的工作。根据美国海事局最近做的一份报告估计，超过10.7万人在政府强烈保护的造船厂工作。加上这些造船厂的供应商，以及这些工人产生的商品和服务消费需求，总共拉动了40万人的就业，就业乘数为4。因此，这样一来通过加强航运业，政府间接拉动了其他行业的就业。

Yet economists²²' views on subsidies have hardened over time. China's policy provides subsidies both for the construction of ships themselves and for the building or expansion of shipyards. These interferences can distort trade, resulting in inefficient²³ production. In deciding whether a subsidy²⁴ flouts²⁵ trade rules the World Trade Organisation²⁶ (WTO) uses a “price gap” approach. The idea is simple: if a country is producing and selling something at a big discount to what others are charging, there is probably something fishy²⁷ going on.

然而，经济学家们对政府补贴的态度越来越坚定。中国的政策是同时对建造船舶和建造、扩大船坞提供补贴。这些干预会扭曲贸易，导致生产效率低下。世界贸易组织（WTO）用“价格差”的方法判定一项补贴是否违反贸易规则。道理很简单：如果一国生产并出售某产品的价格远低于其他国家的要价，这其中可能就有问题。

Price gaps provide a quick warning system, but are a poor way to judge the full extent of subsidies, according to a 2013 book by Usha and George Haley, of West Virginia University and the University of New Haven²⁸. It is a static approach, ignoring how demand for each shipyard's differentiated²⁹ products varies over time. It also fails to account for variations in efficiency. Whereas Chinese workers may be relatively³⁰ cheap, large South Korean or Japanese shipyards exploit economies of scale that smaller Chinese yards cannot. The balance of all these factors, in addition to subsidies, should influence a shipyard's costs and prices.

根据乌莎（西弗吉尼亚大学）和乔治·海利（纽黑文大学）在2013年发表的一本书，价格差提供了一个直观警示机制，但它却不能很好的判断补贴的真实程度。价格差是个静态方法，忽视了每个造船厂的不同产品的需求随时间的变动。并且它也不能解释生产效率的变动。虽然中国的劳动力可能相对更廉价，但韩国和日本的大型造船厂相对中国的小型造船厂拥有规模效应。除了补贴，这些因素的综合作用也影响着造船厂的成本和定价。

Recognising this, a 2014 working paper by Myrto Kalouptsidi of Princeton University provides a new way to spot subsidies and measure their impact. Using detailed³¹ quarterly data on factors like a shipyard's age, size, capacity and staffing levels Ms Kalouptsidi estimates cost functions—the relationship between a yard's output and its cost of production—for 192 yards across China, Japan, South Korea and Europe. By analysing data between 2001 and 2012, she can isolate³² the impact of China's 2006 policy.

鉴于上述原因，普林斯顿大学的学者Myrto Kalouptsidi于2014年在一份研究手稿中提出了一种考察补贴并衡量其影响的新方法。使用造船厂年龄、规模、容量、员工配备水平等因素的详细季度数据，Kalouptsidi估计出了中国、日本、韩国以及欧洲的192个造船厂的成本函数（造船厂生产的成本与产出之间的关系）。通过分析2001年到2012年的数据，她排除了中国2006年鼓励航运业的政策的影响。

The results are striking. A simple price-gap approach shows that Chinese ships cost 7.3% less than rivals'. Controlling for quality differences—Chinese ships are seen as lower quality and so should be around 3.5% cheaper, even in the absence of subsidies—gives a 4% gap, hardly justification³³ for WTO rage. But Ms Kalouptsidi's estimates show this is just part of the story. Government help artificially lowered Chinese firms' costs by between 15-20%. The aid will have included explicit³⁴ subsidies and hidden benefits, such as tolerating losses at state-owned yards. China's market share jumped as the policy was introduced (see right-hand chart).

结果是惊人的。简单的价格差方法显示中国船舶的生产成本相对其竞争对手低7.3%。考虑质量差异—中国船舶被认为质量低下，即使没有补贴也应该便宜将近3.5%—最终产生了4%的价格差，这并不足以让WTO动怒。但是Kalouptsidi的估测表明，这仅仅是表面现象。政府人为地援助中国企业将成本降低了15%到20%。这些援助包括显性补贴和隐性福利，例如容许国有造船厂亏损经营。自从这种政策出台，中国的市场份额显著跃升。

As in Smith's day, this has shifted resources. By comparing the costs and productivity of the shipyards in her sample, Ms Kalouptsidi forecasts how the market might have developed in the absence of China's subsidies. Her analysis points to a big resource reallocation: absent the meddling³⁵, Japan's market share would have been around 30 percentage points higher. Since many South Korean or Japanese yards are more efficient than China's, it means that the true cost of ship production may well have risen. Bloated by subsidy, China's yards have turned out a surfeit³⁶ of vessels, often poorly matched to customers' demands.

如同在斯密的时代，这种政策转移了资源。Kalouptsidi女士通过比较她选取的样本中的不同造船厂的成本和生产率，预测出了在中国不提供补贴的情况下市场的发展状况。她分析提出了一个大幅变动的资源重置：如果没有干预，日本的市场份额应该比现在高出大概30%。由于许多韩国和日本的造船厂比中国生产效率更高，这意味着船舶的真实生产成本可能已经抬高了。受到补贴的鼓励，中国造船厂过度生产，常常与客户需求不匹配。

All this suggests the WTO and other trade-watchers may need to refine their tools to help identify the full extent of subsidies. Other markets are ripe for this kind of analysis. The global glut³⁷ of solar panels owes much to protectionism, according to the Hayleys' book. Steel markets are badly distorted by subsidies to producers, says the WTO. Subsidised solar panels being exported aboard subsidised ships made from subsidised steel show just how far those that seek free trade have to go.

这些都表明了WTO和其他的贸易研究者可能需要改进方法，以更好地判断补贴的严重程度。其他市场已经具备使用上述分析方法的条件。根据海利的书，太阳能电池板在全球范围内的供给过剩是由保护主义造成的。WTO认为，钢材市场因为生产补贴而严重扭曲。用补贴的钢材建造补贴的船舶，运输出口补贴的太阳能电池板，看来那些追求自由贸易的人还有很长一段路要走。

1 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

2 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

4 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

5 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

6 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

7 meeker   

adj.温顺的，驯服的( meek的比较级 )

参考例句：

• I know about Greg Meeker and his pathetic little scam. 我了解格雷格·米克和他的可怜的小骗局。 来自电影对白

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 lamenting   

adj.悲伤的，悲哀的v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Katydids were lamenting fall's approach. 蝈蝈儿正为秋天临近而哀鸣。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lamenting because the papers hadn't been destroyed and the money kept. 她正在吃后悔药呢，后悔自己没有毁了那张字条，把钱昧下来！ 来自英汉文学 - 败坏赫德莱堡

10 vessels   

n.血管( vessel的名词复数 )；船；容器；（具有特殊品质或接受特殊品质的）人

参考例句：

• The river is navigable by vessels of up to 90 tons. 90 吨以下的船只可以从这条河通过。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• All modern vessels of any size are fitted with radar installations. 所有现代化船只都有雷达装置。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。

12 bounty   

n.慷慨的赠予物，奖金；慷慨，大方；施与

参考例句：

• He is famous for his bounty to the poor.他因对穷人慷慨相助而出名。
• We received a bounty from the government.我们收到政府给予的一笔补助金。

13 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

14 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

15 nurture   

n.养育，照顾，教育；滋养，营养品；vt.养育，给与营养物，教养，扶持

参考例句：

• The tree grows well in his nurture.在他的培育下这棵树长得很好。
• The two sisters had received very different nurture.这俩个姊妹接受过极不同的教育。

16 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

17 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

18 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

19 postal   

adj.邮政的，邮局的

参考例句：

• A postal network now covers the whole country.邮路遍及全国。
• Remember to use postal code.勿忘使用邮政编码。

20 maritime   

adj.海的，海事的，航海的，近海的，沿海的

参考例句：

• Many maritime people are fishermen.许多居于海滨的人是渔夫。
• The temperature change in winter is less in maritime areas.冬季沿海的温差较小。

21 indirectly   

adv.间接地，不直接了当地

参考例句：

• I heard the news indirectly.这消息我是间接听来的。
• They were approached indirectly through an intermediary.通过一位中间人，他们进行了间接接触。

22 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。

24 subsidy   

n.补助金，津贴

参考例句：

• The university will receive a subsidy for research in artificial intelligence.那个大学将得到一笔人工智能研究的补助费。
• The living subsidy for senior expert's family is included in the remuneration.报酬已包含高级专家家人的生活补贴。

25 flouts   

v.藐视，轻视( flout的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

26 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

27 fishy   

adj. 值得怀疑的

参考例句：

• It all sounds very fishy to me.所有这些在我听起来都很可疑。
• There was definitely something fishy going on.肯定当时有可疑的事情在进行中。

28 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

29 differentiated   

区分，区别，辨别( differentiate的过去式和过去分词 )； 区别对待； 表明…间的差别，构成…间差别的特征

参考例句：

• The development of mouse kidney tubules requires two kinds of differentiated cells. 小鼠肾小管的发育需要有两种分化的细胞。
• In this enlargement, barley, alfalfa, and sugar beets can be differentiated. 在这张放大的照片上，大麦，苜蓿和甜菜都能被区分开。

30 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

31 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

32 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

33 justification   

n.正当的理由；辩解的理由

参考例句：

• There's no justification for dividing the company into smaller units. 没有理由把公司划分成小单位。
• In the young there is a justification for this feeling. 在年轻人中有这种感觉是有理由的。

34 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

35 meddling   

v.干涉，干预（他人事务）( meddle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He denounced all "meddling" attempts to promote a negotiation. 他斥责了一切“干预”促成谈判的企图。 来自辞典例句
• They liked this field because it was never visited by meddling strangers. 她们喜欢这块田野，因为好事的陌生人从来不到那里去。 来自辞典例句

36 surfeit   

v.使饮食过度；n.(食物)过量，过度

参考例句：

• The voters are pretty sick of such a surfeit of primary sloganeering.选民们对于初选时没完没了地空喊口号的现象感到发腻了。
• A surfeit of food makes one sick.饮食过量使人生病。

37 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。