经济学人98:美国汽车贷款 因果循环

 　　Car loans in America

　　美国汽车贷款

　　Bad carma

　　因果循环

　　Borrowers, not lenders, have more to fear from the latest subprime lending boom

　　贷款人，而不是出借人，更加惧怕最近次级贷款的繁荣

　　For whom?

　　为了谁

　　WHAT would you rather lose: your house or your car? In America, where a car is usually essential to get to work, many borrowers would sooner lose their house, which explains why in the years after the crisis, mortgages were more likely to go bad than car loans. It also explains why auto¹ loans, unlike mortgages, are booming. New loans reached 371 billion in the year to June, up 7.4% from the previous year and 64% since 2009. Subprime auto loans, made to the riskiest² borrowers, have grown even faster, by 93% since 2009.

　　房子或者是汽车，你舍得哪一样？在美国，汽车对于上班族来说常常是必不可少的，许多贷款人可能很快失去他们的房子，这解释了为什么在危机之后的几年，住房抵押贷款比汽车贷款更加容易恶化。这也说明了为什么汽车贷款不像住房抵押一样正经历着一场繁荣。到今年六月份，新的贷款量已经达到了3710亿美元，比去年上升了7.4%，自2009年来提升了64%。给予高风险的贷款人的刺激汽车贷款增长得更快，自2009年以来上升了93%。

　　美国汽车贷款.jpg

　　This growth is due to rising car sales and ample credit as banks, finance companies and carmakers' financing arms compete to lend to consumers, either directly or via car dealers⁴. Those loans are then packaged into securities for yield-hungry investors⁵. Experian, a credit-scoring agency, reckons 85% of new and 54% of used cars are now bought with loans, compared to 79% and 52% in 2007.

　　这样的增长是由不断增加的汽车销量以及银行、金融公司和汽车制造商财务分支竞相直接或通过分销商借款给消费者的丰富贷款造成的。这些贷款最后被包装成证券交给渴求利润的投资者。信用评级公司益佰利评估：85%的新车和54%的旧车是用贷款买的，相比之下，2007年两者数据分别为79%和52%。

　　As volumes have soared, underwriting standards have slipped, with the average subprime loan rising to 115% of the car's value this year from 112% in 2011, according to Standard & Poor's, a ratings agency. The average life of a loan has grown too, to more than five years. Delinquencies, naturally, are rising: more than 3% of loans are at least 60 days in arrears⁶, up from 2% in 2011.

　　随着总量的激增，证券包销标准也下降了，根据评分机构标准普尔公司的数据，平均次级贷款从2011年占汽车价值的112%上升到了今年的115%。平均借贷周期也延长到超过五年。违约行为自然地多了：超过3%的贷款至少有60天的逾期，而2011年是2%。

　　There is much talk of a new subprime bubble, akin⁷ to the cavalier mortgage lending that helped spark the financial crisis. The Department of Justice has asked two big car-loan companies, GM Financial, a unit of General Motors, and Santander Consumer, controlled by Spain's Santander Group, for details about their subprime underwriting and securitisation.

　　有关新的次贷泡沫有许多讨论，就好像目空一切的房屋抵押贷款引发了金融危机那样。司法部要求两大汽车借贷公司—通用旗下的通用金融和西班牙桑坦德集团控制下的桑坦德消费银行—提供其次级证券包销标准以及证券化的细节。

　　Yet the two markets are fundamentally different. Start with size. At 905 billion, total auto loans are barely a tenth of total mortgage debt. Subprime is also more established in auto lending, accounting⁸ for 20% to 30% of total loans since 2000.

　　但是这两个市场是明显不一样的。就规模来说，9050亿美元的汽车贷款仅仅是房贷总额的十分之一。次级贷款占了汽车贷款的很大比重，从2000年来占据了贷款总量的20%到30%。

　　The mortgage bubble fed on the delusion⁹ of both borrowers and lenders that house prices could only rise and thus a loan could always be repaid. In contrast, lenders assume cars only depreciate¹⁰, and charge accordingly: annual subprime interest rates average 14%, and 25% is not uncommon¹¹. Cars are also easier to repossess and resell.

　　房产泡沫基于出借人和贷款人的幻想——房价只能涨，这样贷款才能一直被支付。相反，出借人只期望汽车贬值，并且相应地进行收费：年均次级贷款利率为14%，甚至25%也不是鲜见。汽车也更加容易再次买卖。

　　So while losses are likely to mount, lenders do not face a mortal threat. It is borrowers who have more reason to worry. A car loan is a complex transaction that hinges not just on the price of a car, but also on its trade-in value, extras such an extended guarantee or rust¹² proofing, and most important, the interest rate. A dealer³ typically selects a quote from a bank or finance company via his computer and marks it up. The higher the markup¹³, the greater the payment he receives from the lender.

　　所以尽管有可能增加损失，出借方并未面临致命的威胁。贷款人才更加应该多操心。汽车贷款是个以复杂的交易，它不仅和汽车价格挂钩，也和其抵价值，额外的费用如延长保修时间或者防锈处理以及最重要的利率有关。交易员一般通过电脑引用银行或者金融公司的报价再加上一定价。价加得越高，他从出借方得到的报酬也就越高。

　　Consumer advocates fret¹⁴ that this process leaves the unsophisticated—as subprime customers tend to be—at the mercy of unscrupulous dealers. They may be charged a higher rate despite qualifying for a lower one, sold unneeded or overpriced extras, or even told, a few days after they drive off with the car, that their loan was turned down and they must pay a higher rate. “None of the prices are fixed¹⁵, and each unfixed price is a potentially abusive negotiating point,” says Tom Domonoske, a lawyer who represents aggrieved¹⁶ buyers. Consumer advocates would like markups replaced with a flat fee.

　　消费者保护机构担心这个过程会让那些没有经验的消费者—次级贷款顾客往往是这样—受不良交易员的支配。他们可能被收一个更高的利率，尽管他们有资格获得更低的利率，并且“被消费”不必要的或者过高价格的附加项，甚至在他们开了几天车之后被告知他们的贷款呗取消了并且他们必须支付一个更高的利率。受害消费者的代表律师Tom Domonoske说：“这些价格没有一个是固定的，并且每一个不固定的价格都是一个潜在的被滥用的谈判砝码。”消费者权益维护者期望用稳定的费用取代加价。

　　The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a new watchdog agency set up after the financial crisis, is also worried that lots of borrowers get a raw deal. It has told banks and finance companies that it holds them responsible for the behaviour of the dealers they work with, and that it considers dealers' discretion¹⁷ over markups an invitation to discrimination. It has already got one big finance firm to pay 98m to settle a claim that it was charging minority borrowers higher interest rates and is investigating others.

　　金融危机后设立的监管代理—消费者金融保护局也担心许多贷款人被不公平对待。它已经告知银行和金融公司，要求他们对合作的交易员的行为负责，并且它认为交易员就加价的任意决定权是一种歧视。它已经让一个大的金融集团支付9800万美元，因为该集团向少数贷款人收取高额的利率，另外保护局还在调查其他公司。

　　Dealers are fuming¹⁸ at the CFPB's muscle-flexing. Competition, they say, ensures that customers get the best rate; dealers need discretion to compete. By raising costs, stricter regulation may actually reduce the amount of credit available.

　　交易员对于保护局的武力示威愤愤不平。他们说，竞争保证了消费者获得最好的利率：交易员需要自由决断权来应对竞争。通过提高成本，更严格的规章可能实际上减少信贷的提供量。

1 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

2 riskiest   

冒险的，危险的( risky的最高级 )

参考例句：

• With markets lately rising, the riskiest investments are finding takers. 他说，在周期高峰时，投资者会追逐风险最高的资产。
• The riskiest subprime securitieshave almost no takers. 风险最高的次级证券几乎没有人持有。

3 dealer   

n.商人，贩子

参考例句：

• The dealer spent hours bargaining for the painting.那个商人为购买那幅画花了几个小时讨价还价。
• The dealer reduced the price for cash down.这家商店对付现金的人减价优惠。

4 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 arrears   

n.到期未付之债，拖欠的款项；待做的工作

参考例句：

• The payments on that car loan are in arrears by three months.购车贷款的偿付被拖欠了三个月。
• They are urgent for payment of arrears of wages.他们催讨拖欠的工钱。

7 akin   

adj.同族的，类似的

参考例句：

• She painted flowers and birds pictures akin to those of earlier feminine painters.她画一些同早期女画家类似的花鸟画。
• Listening to his life story is akin to reading a good adventure novel.听他的人生故事犹如阅读一本精彩的冒险小说。

8 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

9 delusion   

n.谬见，欺骗，幻觉，迷惑

参考例句：

• He is under the delusion that he is Napoleon.他患了妄想症，认为自己是拿破仑。
• I was under the delusion that he intended to marry me.我误认为他要娶我。

10 depreciate   

v.降价，贬值，折旧

参考例句：

• The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
• If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

11 uncommon   

adj.罕见的，非凡的，不平常的

参考例句：

• Such attitudes were not at all uncommon thirty years ago.这些看法在30年前很常见。
• Phil has uncommon intelligence.菲尔智力超群。

12 rust   

n.锈；v.生锈；(脑子)衰退

参考例句：

• She scraped the rust off the kitchen knife.她擦掉了菜刀上的锈。
• The rain will rust the iron roof.雨水会使铁皮屋顶生锈。

13 markup   

n.加价，涨价，利润

参考例句：

• This mean that international delivery will line markup from today.这意味着国际快递将从今天起全线涨价。
• Our products are expensive,and distributors and retailers always want a large markup.我们的产品很贵，经销商和零售商总是要求高额利差。

14 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

15 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

16 aggrieved   

adj.愤愤不平的，受委屈的；悲痛的；（在合法权利方面）受侵害的v.令委屈，令苦恼，侵害( aggrieve的过去式)；令委屈，令苦恼，侵害( aggrieve的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• He felt aggrieved at not being chosen for the team. 他因没被选到队里感到愤愤不平。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She is the aggrieved person whose fiance&1& did not show up for their wedding. 她很委屈，她的未婚夫未出现在他们的婚礼上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 discretion   

n.谨慎；随意处理

参考例句：

• You must show discretion in choosing your friend.你择友时必须慎重。
• Please use your best discretion to handle the matter.请慎重处理此事。

18 fuming   

愤怒( fume的现在分词 )； 大怒； 发怒； 冒烟

参考例句：

• She sat in the car, silently fuming at the traffic jam. 她坐在汽车里，心中对交通堵塞感到十分恼火。
• I was fuming at their inefficiency. 我正因为他们效率低而发火。