经济学人:以色列和巴勒斯坦 僵局再起

 　　Israel and Palestine

　　以色列和巴勒斯坦

　　Take a break

　　僵局再起

　　The two-state solution is still the only one that makes sense. But it won't happen this time round

　　目前两国制仍是解决巴以问题的唯一方式，但这一次依然无法实现。

　　IT IS a cliché: every time a worthy¹ mediator², in this case John Kerry, America's secretary of state, sets about ending the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, people say the clock-hand has reached “a minute to midnight”; disaster will follow if the parties fail to agree. By Mr Kerry's timetable, the chimes will ring out dolefully at the end of this month (see article). He may find a last-minute rewinding ploy³ to keep both sides burbling a bit longer. But there is scant⁴ chance, even with that extension, of a two-state deal being done. Mr Kerry has tried his heroic best, but this round of peacemaking is fizzling out.

　　这已经是老生常谈了——每当有分量的调停人出现，希望终止巴以冲突时（这一次的大人物是美国国务卿克里），人们就知道了，核威胁怕是迫在眉睫了。一旦双方谈崩，便是灾难的开始。对克里来说，本月底很可能就是哀歌奏响的最终期限。也许他还能找到缓兵之计，使两方继续谈判，但即使再拖下去，两国制的方针也很难真正实现。克里已经勇敢地做出了最大的尝试，但这一轮的调和谈判还是以失败告终了。

　　以色列和巴勒斯坦.jpg

　　Disaster will not immediately follow. As things stand, Israel is not under threat, despite its understandable aversion to the prospect⁵ of other states in the Middle East, such as Iran, matching it with nuclear weapons. Israel is a prosperous democracy in a region of chaos⁶ and bloodshed. Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister (pictured left), is unchallenged. The Palestinians demanding a state are weak, divided and quiescent⁷; morose⁸ as they are, few favour a return to suicide-bombing.

　　不过灾难也不会瞬间降临。就现在的情况来看，尽管中东的邻国，如伊朗，正在向成为核国家迈进，但以色列并没有遭受实际的威胁。在这片混乱而血腥的土地上，以色列以一个富饶的民主国家屹立于此。本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）作为以色列的总理，他的地位无可争议。巴勒斯坦也要求成为独立国家，尽管他们软弱、分裂、僵化，且国民性格孤僻，但只有极少数人还支持自杀式爆炸这种恐怖暴力行为。

　　Yet Israel cannot afford to be complacent⁹ in the longer run, for this stalemate poses a real threat if the country is to preserve its essence as both Jewish and democratic. It cannot stay both, if it indefinitely controls the Palestinian territories and their people while denying them full rights under Israeli law, including the vote. And if the Palestinians were enfranchised¹⁰, demography¹¹ suggests that a Greater Israel between the Mediterranean¹² and the Jordan river, including Gaza, would no longer be predominantly Jewish. Israel must give the Palestinians a proper state of their own if it is to remain a Jewish democracy.

　　但长久来看，以色列无法自给自足。如果它想要保持自己犹太民主国家的本质，那么这一次的僵局将对其造成真正的威胁。如果以色列无限期地掌控着巴勒斯坦的领土和人民，却又根据以色列的法律拒绝给予他们包括选举权在内的各项权利，那它是无法保持既犹太又民主的本质的。如果巴勒斯坦公民拥有了选举权，那从人口学上看，地中海到约旦河，包括加沙在内的大以色列地区的大部分人口将不再是犹太人。如果以色列想要以犹太民主国的身份存在，那就必须给巴勒斯坦人应有的一个真正意义上的国家。

　　Mr Netanyahu knows this. But most of his own Likud party and much of his coalition¹³ still roundly reject the two-state idea, and he is loth to face them down. This time, he has added a clutch of extra demands which his predecessors¹⁴, notably¹⁵ Ehud Barack at Camp David in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem in 2008, saw no need for—on such issues as boundaries, Jerusalem and the Jordan valley, which many in Likud now want to annex¹⁶. He has let Jewish settlements on the West Bank expand as fast as ever. And he says the Palestinians must first acknowledge Israel as a specifically Jewish state.

　　内塔尼亚胡明白这一点。但他所在的右翼利库德党（Likud party）和他所领导的政府仍然坚决抵制两国制的想法，他本人也不愿说服反对者。这一次，他还在谈判中附带了更多的要求，如两国边界问题，耶路撒冷和约旦峡谷问题，这都是利库德党中很多人想要吞并的地区，但内达尼亚胡的前任们，主要是埃胡德·巴拉克（Ehud Barack）和埃胡德·奥尔默特（Ehud Olmert）分别在2000年的大卫营和2008年的耶路撒冷就已经看出这些要求是没有意义的。他让约旦河西岸地区的犹太人定居点通过去一样快速扩大，同时他还认为巴基斯坦人应最首先认可以色列是一个独立的犹太国家。

　　The Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas (pictured right), says he cannot submit to such demands as a precondition. He would be ditched by his own people if he were to cast Israel's Arabs (who are a fifth of Israeli citizens) into what they see as a second-class status and to disavow the Palestinians' claimed “right of return” to Israel proper. The fact that the Palestinians will have to climb down in the final stage of any deal only adds, like the Israeli demands, to a sense of bluster¹⁷.

　　巴勒斯坦领导人马哈茂德·阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）表示，他无法接受这些作为前提条件的要求。如果他将以色列的阿拉伯人（以色列的第五类公民）算入二等公民，并否认巴勒斯坦人宣称的回到以色列的合法权利，那么他将被自己的人民所抛弃。事实是，巴勒斯坦人将在谈判的最后阶段一味妥协，这只会增加民愤，而这正是以色列希望看到的。

　　In an ideal world, Mr Netanyahu, a clever populist, would emulate¹⁸ the late Ariel Sharon by abandoning his party's right wing and the rejectionists within his coalition in order to forge a new ruling coalition genuinely committed to the two-state option; the Knesset arithmetic would let him do so. And Mr Abbas would step down in favour of a more dynamic leader, such as Marwan Barghouti , imprisoned¹⁹ in an Israeli jail for murder: he helped organise²⁰ a bloody²¹ uprising. That, though, might give him the clout²² to drag the Palestinians into making painful but game-changing concessions²³.

　　理想情况是，内塔尼亚胡作为一个高明的平民主义者，应效仿已故的以色列前总理阿里尔·沙龙（Ariel Sharon），抛弃利库德党的右翼主义和政府内的反对派，以建立一个新的支持两国制的统治集团，以色列议会也会支持他这样做的。而阿巴斯也应主动退位，推举更有活力的领导人上台，如因谋杀罪入狱的马尔万·巴尔古提（Marwan Barghouti）。他曾帮助组织了一起血腥的起义，但这让他有一定的影响力去迫使巴勒斯坦做出一些痛苦但具有转折性的让步和妥协。

　　Instead, both sides are embarking²⁴ on a blame game. Neither will win. The Palestinians are still stateless—and their prospective²⁵ state is getting smaller. The Israelis face not just the growing opprobrium²⁶ of the outside world, boycotts²⁷ and all, but also the prospect of missing another opportunity to ensure the survival of a country that is both democratic and Jewish.

　　但现在，巴以两方都在相互指责，最终只会导致两败俱伤。巴勒斯坦至今仍没有主权，而且未来的希望也变得越来越渺茫。以色列也不仅要面对外界越来越多的指责和抵制，还可能再一次失去保留犹太民主国特性的机会。

　　1.between and 之间

　　例句:A comparison between and analysis of financial affairs in institutions of higher learning of China and U. S.

　　中美高校财务工作的比较与分析。

　　2.fail to 未能

　　例句:I never fail to write to my parents every month.

　　我每个月一定写信给我的父母亲。

　　3.prime minister 总理；首相

　　例句:The Prime Minister was dethroned by the President.

　　总理被总统废黜了。

　　4.return to 回到

　　例句:He wants to give away all his modern possessions and return to nature.

　　他要舍弃一切时髦的东西而归真返璞。

1 worthy   

adj.(of)值得的，配得上的；有价值的

参考例句：

• I did not esteem him to be worthy of trust.我认为他不值得信赖。
• There occurred nothing that was worthy to be mentioned.没有值得一提的事发生。

2 mediator   

n.调解人，中介人

参考例句：

• He always takes the role of a mediator in any dispute.他总是在争论中充当调停人的角色。
• He will appear in the role of mediator.他将出演调停者。

3 ploy   

n.花招，手段

参考例句：

• I think this is just a government ploy to deceive the public.我认为这只是政府欺骗公众的手段。
• Christmas should be a time of excitement and wonder,not a cynical marketing ploy.圣诞节应该是兴奋和美妙的时刻，而不该是一种肆无忌惮的营销策略。

4 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

5 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

6 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

7 quiescent   

adj.静止的，不活动的，寂静的

参考例句：

• It is unlikely that such an extremist organization will remain quiescent for long.这种过激的组织是不太可能长期沉默的。
• Great distance in either time or space has wonderful power to lull and render quiescent the human mind.时间和空间上的远距离有一种奇妙的力量，可以使人的心灵平静。

8 morose   

adj.脾气坏的，不高兴的

参考例句：

• He was silent and morose.他沉默寡言、郁郁寡欢。
• The publicity didn't make him morose or unhappy?公开以后，没有让他郁闷或者不开心吗？

9 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

10 enfranchised   

v.给予选举权( enfranchise的过去式和过去分词 )；（从奴隶制中）解放

参考例句：

• The slaves were enfranchised. 奴隶们被释放了。 来自互联网
• In Britain women were enfranchised in 1918. 1918年英国妇女获得议会选举权。 来自互联网

11 demography   

n.人口统计，人口学

参考例句：

• Demography is the analysis of population variables.人口学是对人口变量的分析。
• It was once a rule of demography that people have fewer children as their countries get richer.按人口统计学的一贯规律，一个国家里的人民越富有，他们所拥有的孩子就越少。

12 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

13 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

14 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

16 annex   

vt.兼并，吞并；n.附属建筑物

参考例句：

• It plans to annex an England company in order to enlarge the market.它计划兼并一家英国公司以扩大市场。
• The annex has been built on to the main building.主楼配建有附属的建筑物。

17 bluster   

v.猛刮；怒冲冲的说；n.吓唬，怒号；狂风声

参考例句：

• We could hear the bluster of the wind and rain.我们能听到狂风暴雨的吹打声。
• He was inclined to bluster at first,but he soon dropped.起初他老爱吵闹一阵，可是不久就不做声了。

18 emulate   

v.努力赶上或超越，与…竞争；效仿

参考例句：

• You must work hard to emulate your sister.你必须努力工作，赶上你姐姐。
• You must look at the film and try to emulate his behavior.你们必须观看这部电影，并尽力模仿他的动作。

19 imprisoned   

下狱，监禁( imprison的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was imprisoned for two concurrent terms of 30 months and 18 months. 他被判处30个月和18个月的监禁，合并执行。
• They were imprisoned for possession of drugs. 他们因拥有毒品而被监禁。

20 organise   

vt.组织，安排，筹办

参考例句：

• He has the ability to organise.他很有组织才能。
• It's my job to organise all the ceremonial events.由我来组织所有的仪式。

21 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

22 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

23 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

24 embarking   

乘船( embark的现在分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• He's embarking on a new career as a writer. 他即将开始新的职业生涯——当一名作家。
• The campaign on which were embarking was backed up by such intricate and detailed maintenance arrangemets. 我们实施的战争，须要如此复杂及详细的维护准备。

25 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

26 opprobrium   

n.耻辱，责难

参考例句：

• The opprobrium and enmity he incurred were caused by his outspoken brashness.他招致的轻蔑和敌意是由于他出言过于粗率而造成的。
• That drunkard was the opprobrium of our community.那个酒鬼是我们社区里可耻的人物。

27 boycotts   

（对某事物的）抵制( boycott的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Their methods included boycotts and court action, supplemented by'sit-ins". 他们的主要方法包括联合抵制、法庭起诉，还附带进行静坐抗议。
• Are boycotts for other purposes illegal? 至于用于其它目的的联合抵制行动是否也是非法的呢？