经济学人:欧盟最大赤字国 法国成欧元区的定时炸弹

 　　The time-bomb at the heart of Europe

　　欧洲中心的定时炸弹

　　Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe’s single currency

　　为什么法国会成为欧洲单一货币体系的最大危机

　　The threat of the euro’s collapse¹ has abated² for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week. But ahead looms³ a bigger problem that could dwarf⁴ any of these: France.

　　欧盟瓦解的威胁日益减少，但是实行单一货币政策所带来的痛楚会持续数年。对于希腊来说来自于改革和财政预算赤字的压力是非常大的。葡萄牙，西班牙和意大利本周都发生了大规模的游行示威活动。但是摆在面前的还有一个更大的问题：法国。

　　The country has always been at the heart of the euro, as of the European Union. President Francois Mitterrand argued for the single currency because he hoped to bolster⁵ French influence in an EU that would otherwise fall under the sway of a unified⁶ Germany. France has gained from the euro: it is borrowing at record low rates and has avoided the troubles of the Mediterranean⁷. Yet even before May, when Francois Hollande became the country’s first Socialist⁸ president since Mitterrand, France had ceded⁹ leadership in the euro crisis to Germany. And now its economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.

　　法国这个国家是欧洲，也是欧盟的中心。弗朗索瓦·密特朗表示支持单一货币政策因为他希望提高法国在欧盟的影响，否则迟早会败于统一后的德国手里。法国已经从欧盟得到了甜头：它以相对低的利率从而成功规避了地中海地区的问题。即使在五月之前，当奥朗德成为自密特朗，这位转让了法国在欧盟经济危机的主导权给德国的总统后，法国的第一位社会党总统。法国的经济体系已经相当脆弱了。

　　As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt. Even as other EU countries have curbed¹⁰ the reach of the state, it has grown in France to consume almost 57% of GDP, the highest share in the euro zone. Because of the failure to balance a single budget since 1981, public debt has risen from 22% of GDP then to over 90% now.

　　就像我们的特别报道中提到的，法国仍然具有很大实力，但是其脆弱的部分在欧盟危机中已经体现无疑。法国在近年来与德国的竞争中已经逐渐失去了力量，特别是当德国开始减少开支和进行大的改革后。没有欧元贬值的机遇，法国已经踏上不得不向求助于公共开支和贷款的道路了。即使想其他欧盟国家一样努力的避免走上这条路，仍避免不了其越来越高的GDP消耗--- GDP的消耗已经高达57%，高于其他欧盟区国家。因为从1981年起，由于其对于单一预算的失误，公共债务已经从GDP的22%上升到了如今的90%。

　　The business climate in France has also worsened. French firms are burdened by overly rigid¹¹ labour- and product-market regulation, exceptionally high taxes and the euro zone’s heaviest social charges on payrolls¹². Not surprisingly, new companies are rare. France has fewer small and medium-sized enterprises, today’s engines of job growth, than Germany, Italy or Britain. The economy is stagnant¹³, may tip into recession this quarter and will barely grow next year. Over 10% of the workforce¹⁴, and over 25% of the young, are jobless. The external current-account deficit¹⁵ has swung from a small surplus in 1999 into one of the euro zone’s biggest deficits¹⁶. In short, too many of France’s firms are uncompetitive and the country’s bloated government is living beyond its means.

　　法国的商业氛围也愈加的坏了。法国的公司承担的巨大的劳工和市场的管理条例，特别是高额的税收和欧盟区最高的社保支付。意料之中的，新公司非常的少。法国的中小型企业越来越少，其就业压力也超过德国，意大利和英国。经济停滞不前，甚至在这个季度有所倒退，未来的增长率也是不被看好的。再者，法国将会有超过10%的劳动力，超过25%的年轻劳动力将会无工作可做。在外，现如今的财政状况也令人堪忧，在1999年还小有剩余，如今却成了整个欧盟地区的最大赤字国。总的来说，太多的法国公司没有竞争力，其骄傲的政府也并未发挥出作用。

　　Hollande at bay Hollande

　　等待起航

　　With enough boldness and grit¹⁷, Mr Hollande could now reform France. His party holds power in the legislature and in almost all the regions. The left should be better able than the right to persuade the unions to accept change. Mr Hollande has acknowledged that France lacks competitiveness. And, encouragingly, he has recently promised to implement¹⁸ many of the changes recommended in a new report by Louis Gallois, a businessman, including reducing the burden of social charges on companies. The president wants to make the labour market more flexible. This week he even talked of the excessive size of the state, promising¹⁹ to “do better, while spending less”.

　　有着足够的勇气和毅力，奥朗德先生可以开始振兴法国了。他所在的政党在渗入于司法界和各种区域。左派会比优派更容易说服联邦区接受改革。奥朗德先生已经了解到法国缺乏竞争力。更加歌舞人心的是他最近承诺的实行一系列由路易高卢瓦提出的新提案，包括减少公司承担的社保金。这说明，总统想要使劳动力市场更加的活跃。这周他甚至提出要改变现在的状况，承诺“花费最少，做的更好”。

　　Yet set against the gravity of France’s economic problems, Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted. Why should business believe him when he has already pushed through a string of leftish measures, including a 75% top income-tax rate, increased taxes on companies, wealth, capital gains and dividends²⁰, a higher minimum wage and a partial rollback of a previously²¹ accepted rise in the pension age? No wonder so many would-be entrepreneurs are talking of leaving the country.

　　然而面对法国严重的经济问题。奥朗德先生显得力不从心。当他已经开始推行一系列左派的措施，包括最高75%的收入税率，增长公司，财产，资本收入和红利的税收，更高的最低工资，和降低部分之前已经升高的最低退休年龄时，这些措施使商界更难以相信他。因此，越来越多的企业家选择离开这个国家。

　　European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was a deep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because political leaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollande or France. During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need for business-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remains²² unmodernised and hostile to capitalism²³: since he began to warn about France’s competitiveness, his approval rating has plunged²⁴. Worse, France is aiming at a moving target. All euro-zone countries are making structural²⁵ reforms, and mostly faster and more extensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks being left behind by Italy and Spain.

　　欧盟政府承诺的大改革已经开始，因为存在的深切的金融危机感，因为投票者相信已经没有选择，因为执政者们相信改变是不可避免的了。尽管如此，以上任何一种都不能形容奥朗德先生和法国。在大选期间，奥朗德先生很少提到对于友好的商业改革的需要，而是更加关注于结束紧缩。他所在的政党始终保持保守态度，对于资本化持有敌意：自从他提出关于法国竞争力的问题，他的支持率便开始跳水。更加糟糕的是，法国的目标一直在变动。所有欧元区的国家都开始实施框架上的改革，并且相对法国来所更快且集中。国际货币基金组织最近警告说法国的危机已经高于意大利和西班牙。

　　At stake is not just the future of France, but that of the euro. Mr Hollande has correctly badgered Angela Merkel for pushing austerity too hard. But he has hidden behind his napkin when it comes to the political integration²⁶ needed to solve the euro crisis. There has to be greater European-level control over national economic policies. France has reluctantly ratified²⁷ the recent fiscal²⁸ compact, which gives Brussels extra budgetary powers. But neither the elite²⁹ nor the voters are yet prepared to transfer more sovereignty, just as they are unprepared for deep structural reforms. While most countries discuss how much sovereignty they will have to give up, France is resolutely³⁰ avoiding any debate on the future of Europe. Mr Hollande was badly burned in 2005 when voters rejected the EU constitutional treaty after his party split down the middle. A repeat of that would pitch the single currency into chaos³¹.

　　危险的并不只是法国的未来，同样也是欧盟的未来。因为推行紧缩的难度，奥德朗先生正确的纠正了安格拉·默克尔的问题。但是当面对解决欧盟债务危机的政治整合问题时，他又躲了起来。整个欧盟区的调控不得不高于国家的经济政策。法国勉强同意了最近的政府财政条约，这给了Brussels额外的预算上的优势。但是无论是精英还是投票者都对主权转移没有准备，就如他们对结构改革没有准备一样。当大多数国家在讨论他们会给出多大的主权让步时，法国坚定的拒绝关于欧盟未来的讨论。奥朗德先生被惹火上身在2005年当投票者拒绝欧盟的宪法条约时也是他所在政党分裂之后。这样的重复也会使单一货币政策陷入混乱。

　　Too big not to succeed?

　　太大不利于成功？

　　Our most recent special report on a big European country (in June 2011) focused on Italy’s failure to reform under Silvio Berlusconi; by the end of the year he was out—and change had begun. So far investors³² have been indulgent of France; indeed, long-term interest rates have fallen a bit. But sooner or later the centime will drop. You cannot defy economics for long.

　　我们最近的关于欧洲国家的特别报道集中在西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导下的意大利的不支持改革上。在年末的时候他出局了，改革得以开始。至今为止，投资者都太娇惯法国了，因此长期利率只跌了一点。但是，迟早生丁会贬值。因为，没有人可以长时间的违背经济规律。

　　Unless Mr Hollande shows that he is genuinely committed to changing the path his country has been on for the past 30 years, France will lose the faith of investors—and of Germany. As several euro-zone countries have found, sentiment in the markets can shift quickly. The crisis could hit as early as next year. Previous European currency upheavals³³ have often started elsewhere only to finish by engulfing³⁴ France—and this time, too, France rather than Italy or Spain could be where the euro’s fate is decided³⁵. Mr Hollande does not have long to defuse the time-bomb at the heart of Europe.

　　除非奥朗德先生表示他真诚的承诺改变他的国家坚持了30年的道路，不然法国将会使投资者和德国失去信心。正如一些欧元区的国家已经发现的，市场的敏感度时在快速变化的。危机可能会在明年早期就到来。之前的已经发生在其他地区的欧元的巨大变动同样会吞没法国。法国会超过意大利和西班牙决定欧盟的灭亡。奥朗德先生已经没有多少时间拆除这个在欧洲中心的定时炸弹了。

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 abated   

减少( abate的过去式和过去分词 )； 减去； 降价； 撤消（诉讼）

参考例句：

• The worker's concern about cuts in the welfare funding has not abated. 工人们对削减福利基金的关心并没有减少。
• The heat has abated. 温度降低了。

3 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 dwarf   

n.矮子，侏儒，矮小的动植物；vt.使…矮小

参考例句：

• The dwarf's long arms were not proportional to his height.那侏儒的长臂与他的身高不成比例。
• The dwarf shrugged his shoulders and shook his head. 矮子耸耸肩膀，摇摇头。

5 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

6 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

7 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

8 socialist   

n.社会主义者；adj.社会主义的

参考例句：

• China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家，也是一个发展中国家。
• His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。

9 ceded   

v.让给，割让，放弃( cede的过去式 )

参考例句：

• Cuba was ceded by Spain to the US in 1898. 古巴在1898年被西班牙割让给美国。
• A third of the territory was ceded to France. 领土的三分之一割让给了法国。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 curbed   

v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Advertising aimed at children should be curbed. 针对儿童的广告应受到限制。 来自辞典例句
• Inflation needs to be curbed in Russia. 俄罗斯需要抑制通货膨胀。 来自辞典例句

11 rigid   

adj.严格的，死板的；刚硬的，僵硬的

参考例句：

• She became as rigid as adamant.她变得如顽石般的固执。
• The examination was so rigid that nearly all aspirants were ruled out.考试很严，几乎所有的考生都被淘汰了。

12 payrolls   

n.（公司员工的）工资名单( payroll的名词复数 )；（公司的）工资总支出，工薪总额

参考例句：

• Indices of employment, payrolls, and production steadied in February 1931931年2月，就业、工资额和生产指数稳定。 来自辞典例句
• Wall Street responded to the payrolls figures with gusto. 华尔街对就业数据作出了积极的反应。 来自互联网

13 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

14 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

15 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

16 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

17 grit   

n.沙粒，决心，勇气；v.下定决心，咬紧牙关

参考例句：

• The soldiers showed that they had plenty of grit. 士兵们表现得很有勇气。
• I've got some grit in my shoe.我的鞋子里弄进了一些砂子。

18 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

19 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

20 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

21 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

22 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

23 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

24 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

25 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

26 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

27 ratified   

v.批准，签认（合约等）( ratify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The treaty was declared invalid because it had not been ratified. 条约没有得到批准，因此被宣布无效。
• The treaty was ratified by all the member states. 这个条约得到了所有成员国的批准。

28 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

29 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

30 resolutely   

adj.坚决地，果断地

参考例句：

• He resolutely adhered to what he had said at the meeting. 他坚持他在会上所说的话。
• He grumbles at his lot instead of resolutely facing his difficulties. 他不是果敢地去面对困难，而是抱怨自己运气不佳。

31 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

32 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

33 upheavals   

突然的巨变( upheaval的名词复数 )； 大动荡； 大变动； 胀起

参考例句：

• the latest upheavals in the education system 最近教育制度上的种种变更
• These political upheavals might well destroy the whole framework of society. 这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。

34 engulfing   

adj.吞噬的v.吞没，包住( engulf的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• A photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house darkness. 一位摄影师把电灯的保险丝烧断了，使整栋房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A professional photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house in darkness. 一位职业摄影师把保险丝烧断了使整所房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自辞典例句

35 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。