经济学人:经济政策与承诺背道而驰 奥朗德能够俘获民心?

 　　French economic policy

　　法国经济政策

　　Which way for Mr Hollande?

　　奥朗德何去何从？

　　Elected on the left,France’s president seems to be veering¹ towards the centre

　　左翼当选，而今法国总统似向中间摇摆

　　THE longer Francois Hollande spends in office, the more it takes sharp eyesight and a clear head to follow his economic policy. Since his election last May, the Socialist² president has mixed tax-and-spend measures with efforts to improve competitiveness. The rich feel squeezed; firms are annoyed by anti-business talk. Yet,with GDP shrinking in the fourth quarter of 2012 and job losses mounting, the man elected on a leftist programme is accused of a swerve³ to the reformist centre. What is Mr Hollande up to?

　　奥朗德任职时间越长，他的经济政策就越发扑朔迷离。自从去年五月当选以来，这位社会党主席就一直采用量入为出的手段并辅以促进竞争的不懈努力。富人感到备受压迫；反商业会谈让公司恼怒不堪。然而，随着2012年第四季度GDP的缩水以及失业人数的增加，人们质疑这位因左派纲领当选的人向改革的中间方向摇摆。奥朗德先生该何去何从？

　　In his first few months he ticked off items on his manifesto⁴. He lowered the pension age for certain workers. He raised a family benefit. He capped petrol prices. He vowed⁵ to stop companies closing factories. He prepared a budget for 2013 that tried to keep the budget deficit⁶ to 3% of GDP, but chiefly through tax increases: it soaked the rich with a 75% income-tax rate, and hit companies and individuals with other higher taxes. Returning from his summer break, Mr Hollande seemed like a man with the luxury of time on his side.

　　在上任之初的几个月内，他兑现了之前宣言上的条目。他降低了一些工人领养老金的年龄。他增加了家庭收入。他设置了油价上限。他誓言会阻止公司关闭工厂。他计划将2013年的预算赤字降低到GDP的3%，但主要的手段是增加税收：75%的所得税压得富人喘不过气，而公司和个人也遭遇其他苛税。结束了夏季休假的奥朗德有充裕的时间大展宏图。

　　What followed in October was, therefore, sprung on an unsuspecting public. After a damning report on French competitiveness by Louis Gallois, a left-leaning industrialist⁷, Mr Hollande announced 20 billion euros of tax breaks for companies employing low-wage labour, to compensate⁸ for high social charges. A sense of urgency and realism began to creep in. Mr Gallois talked of an “emergency situation”. For the first time, the government acknowledged labour cost as a factor behindFrance’s loss of competitiveness to Germany over the past ten years. Mr Hollande even started talking of cutting public spending, which accounts for over 56% of GDP. This was followed in January by an unexpected agreement with the unions to soften⁹ labour-market rules, making it easier for companies to reduce hours and wages in a downturn.

　　是以，在十月份接踵而至的事，让不知情的群众为之一震。在路易斯加洛伊斯，一位左倾实业家，发表了一份报告谴责法国的竞争力，此后，奥朗德宣布给予雇佣低薪劳动力的公司200亿欧元的税收减免以补偿高额的社会负担费用。紧迫感与现实主义暗潮汹涌。加洛伊斯认为“事态紧急”。政府前所未有地承认劳动力成本是导致过去十年间法国竞争力逊于德国的一个因素。奥朗德甚至开始考虑削减公众开支，而这占到了GDP的56%以上。紧接着的一月，法国出人意料地和工会达成了宽松劳动市场规则的协定，让公司能更轻松地减少工作时间和工资。

　　In some ways, all this was just an inevitable¹⁰ encounter with economic reality. Mr Hollande had based his manifes to on growth in 2013 of 1.7%; in office, he revised this to 0.8%. Now the fantasy is over: this week Mr Hollande conceded, like most economists¹¹, that growth would be much lower. As a result, said the Cour des Comptes, the national auditor¹², in its annual report on February 12th, France has “little chance” of meeting its 3% target.

　　在某种程度上，这一切只是无可避免地撞上了经济现状的高墙而已。奥朗德的竞选纲领建立在2013年经济增长1.7%的目标上；任职后，他把这个数字修正为0.8%。现在，美梦破碎，本周奥朗德一如众多经济学家般承认，增长率会低得多。而最后的结果，就像国家审计员Cour des Comptes在2月12日的年报中所说的那样，法国实现3%赤字目标的可能性“微乎其微”。

　　Across the country, factories have been closing. Industrial production has stalled. Entrepreneurs feel penalised. Investment plans are on hold. Anecdotes¹³ abound¹⁴ of rich families leaving the country. Faced with this, and with poor poll ratings, Mr Hollande has begun to recognise the limits of state power, and of a tax-and-spend policy in a country that breaks records for both. Now Jean-Marc Ayrault, his prime minister, wants “to reinvent the French model”. Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, even claims there has been a “Copernican revolution” on the left. By conceding the need for supply-side measures to reduce labour costs, he says, the French left has made a big shift. Indeed. Some say that those around Mr Hollande in charge of economic policy, including Mr Moscovici, Michel Sapin, the labour minister, and Emmanuel Macron, the economic adviser¹⁵ in the Elysee, have long understood what is really needed to solve France’s competitiveness problem.

　　纵观全国，工厂纷纷关闭。工业生产陷入泥潭。企业家感觉受到严惩。投资计划搁置了。人们耳边充斥着富裕家庭离开国家的消息。面对这一切窘境还有消极的民调，奥朗德开始意识到政权以及量入为出政策的局限性。现在，总理让-马克·艾罗想要“重塑法兰西模式”。财政大臣皮耶尔 莫斯科维奇 甚至宣称左翼已经历“哥白尼式的变革”。他表示，通过满足供应方降低劳动力成本的需求，法国左翼已经完成巨大的转变。一些人认为在奥朗德身边掌控经济政策的人士，包括莫斯科维奇，劳务大臣米歇尔萨宾以及Elysee的经济顾问艾米努尔马克伦早已洞悉解决法国竞争力顽疾的良药。

　　The trouble is that the rest of the Socialist Party, particularly in parliament, does not agree. Manuel Valls, the popular straight-talking interior minister, says that “The challenge for the French left is that we should have done this ideological¹⁶ metamorphosis during the past ten years of opposition¹⁷.” Instead, “We are adapting our software while in office.” With its deputies supplied largely by the public sector¹⁸, this is awkward. Already, the left accuses Mr Hollande of giving in to “neo-liberal principles”. Thierry Lepaon, the new leader of the Confederation Generale du Travail¹⁹, France’s biggest and communist-linked union, complains that he is doing “the opposite of his campaign commitments”.

　　问题是社会党的剩余部众，尤其是在国会的那些人，并不同意。以直言著称的内务大臣马努尔 沃尔斯表示“对法国左翼而言，挑战是，我们应该在过去在野的十年内完成这种意识形态的变革”，但事实上，“我们上台之后仍在调整适应。”它的代表人主要是由公共部门提供产生的，这确实很尴尬。的左派已经控诉奥朗德向“新自由主义原则”让步。法国最大的共产主义工会，法国总工会的新领袖西里 莱帕昂抱怨道，奥朗德正和他的“竞选承诺背道而驰”。

　　In reality, it is hard to detect a linear evolution, let alone a revolution. For one thing, Mr Hollande is a political animal who plays by the rule that it is better not to say too clearly what you are doing. He refuses to acknowledge a U-turn. He let Arnaud Montebourg, his industry minister, talk of the compulsory²⁰ nationalisation of a steelworks, before ruling it out. He has pinned himself into a corner over the 75% tax rate, which was ruled unconstitutional in December, but which he cannot entirely²¹ bury without losing face.

　　事实上，线性的演变都很难观测到，更不用说是一场巨大变革。一方面，奥朗德是一个政治动物，他不会把自己的底牌摊出来。他拒绝承认经济的U形复苏。他让工业首相Arnaud Montebourg谈道强制钢铁制品的国有化，紧接着又否决了这种可能性。他用75%的税率把自己逼入困境，而这一税率在十二月被判为违反宪法，而他也不能自圆其说，不失颜面地平息事态。

　　It is also far from clear that Mr Hollande, even if he sees the need to curb²² public spending, is ready to do it. In its damning report, the Cour des Comptes deplores²³ the fact that tax rises make up three-quarters of 2013 budget savings²⁴, and urges a greater effort to cut spending. But this will require an overhaul²⁵ of pensions and welfare spending, as well as civil-service staffing, none of which is on the table.

　　而且，即使奥朗德看出有必要控制公共支出，也很难说他已经做好准备。在谴责报告中，Cour des Comptes 强烈反对税收增长占到2013年预算储蓄的四分之三，并督促投入更大努力削减开支。但这意味着在养老金，福利支出以及公务员职务等方面会有大幅调整，而这样的调整并不在议程上。

　　Mr Hollande could yet turn out to be a Gerhard Schruder a la francaise, willing to bring in deep reforms, as the former centre-left German chancellor²⁶ did, to shake up the French welfare state and restore competitiveness. But a more likely outcome is that he will do just enough to keep the markets and the ratings agencies at bay, without ever fully²⁷ confronting vested interests. “Whenever he can avoid hard choices, he will,” says somebody who knows him well. This may keep France from disaster. Whether it will reverse the slow decline of the past decade is far less certain.

　　奥朗德可以成为法国的杰哈德施罗德，正如这位德国前总理所做的一样，他锐意进取，深化改革，改造社会福利，重塑国家竞争力。但另一种呼之欲出的结果是，他让市场与评级机构陷入泥潭，却没有和既得利益集团交锋。熟知他的人说，“他会尽其所能，避免”这也许能让法国免遭灭顶之灾。它是否能扭转过去十年间的缓慢滑坡尚不得而知。

1 veering   

n.改变的；犹豫的；顺时针方向转向；特指使船尾转向上风来改变航向v.（尤指交通工具）改变方向或路线( veer的现在分词 )；（指谈话内容、人的行为或观点）突然改变；（指风） （在北半球按顺时针方向、在南半球按逆时针方向）逐渐转向；风向顺时针转

参考例句：

• Anyone veering too close to the convoys risks being shot. 任何人改变方向，过于接近车队就有遭枪击的风险。 来自互联网
• The little boat kept veering from its course in such a turbulent river. 小船在这湍急的河中总是改变方向。 来自互联网

2 socialist   

n.社会主义者；adj.社会主义的

参考例句：

• China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家，也是一个发展中国家。
• His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。

3 swerve   

v.突然转向，背离；n．转向，弯曲，背离

参考例句：

• Nothing will swerve him from his aims.什么也不能使他改变目标。
• Her car swerved off the road into a 6ft high brick wall.她的车突然转向冲出了马路，撞向6英尺高的一面砖墙。

4 manifesto   

n.宣言，声明

参考例句：

• I was involved in the preparation of Labour's manifesto.我参与了工党宣言的起草工作。
• His manifesto promised measures to protect them.他在宣言里保证要为他们采取保护措施。

5 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 industrialist   

n.工业家，实业家

参考例句：

• The industrialist's son was kidnapped.这名实业家的儿子被绑架了。
• Mr.Smith was a wealthy industrialist,but he was not satisfied with life.史密斯先生是位富有的企业家，可他对生活感到不满意。

8 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

9 soften   

v.(使)变柔软；(使)变柔和

参考例句：

• Plastics will soften when exposed to heat.塑料适当加热就可以软化。
• This special cream will help to soften up our skin.这种特殊的护肤霜有助于使皮肤变得柔软。

10 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 auditor   

n.审计员，旁听着

参考例句：

• The auditor was required to produce his working papers.那个审计员被要求提供其工作底稿。
• The auditor examines the accounts of all county officers and departments.审计员查对所有县官员及各部门的帐目。

13 anecdotes   

n.掌故，趣闻，轶事( anecdote的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• amusing anecdotes about his brief career as an actor 关于他短暂演员生涯的趣闻逸事
• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman. 他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 abound   

vi.大量存在；(in，with)充满，富于

参考例句：

• Oranges abound here all the year round.这里一年到头都有很多橙子。
• But problems abound in the management of State-owned companies.但是在国有企业的管理中仍然存在不少问题。

15 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

16 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

17 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

18 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

19 travail   

n.阵痛；努力

参考例句：

• Mothers know the travail of giving birth to a child.母亲们了解分娩时的痛苦。
• He gained the medal through his painful travail.他通过艰辛的努力获得了奖牌。

20 compulsory   

n.强制的，必修的；规定的，义务的

参考例句：

• Is English a compulsory subject?英语是必修课吗？
• Compulsory schooling ends at sixteen.义务教育至16岁为止。

21 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

22 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

23 deplores   

v.悲叹，痛惜，强烈反对( deplore的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• He often deplores his past sins. 他经常痛悔自己过去的罪恶。 来自辞典例句
• Regretting the lack of spontaneity and real sensuousness in other contemporary poets, he deplores in Tennyson. 他对于和他同时代的诗人缺乏自发性和真实的敏感，感到惋惜，他对坦尼森感到悲痛。 来自辞典例句

24 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

25 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

26 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

27 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。