经济学人:人机对战 落后国家受到威胁

 　　Finance and economics: Robots v humans Machine earning

　　财经：人机对战，机器学习

　　Jobs in poor countries may be especially vulnerable to automation.

　　贫穷国家的工作岗位更容易受到自动化的冲击。

　　Bill Burr, an American entertainer, was dismayed when he first came across an automated¹ checkout².

　　美国艺人Bill Burr第一次使用自动收银台时感觉很不自然。

　　“I thought I was a comedian³; evidently I also work in a grocery store,” he complained. “I can't believe I forgot my apron⁴.”

　　他抱怨说：“我感觉我就像一个小丑，就像是我也在杂货店工作。就差自己给自己带一个围裙了”。

　　Those whose jobs are at risk of being displaced by machines are no less grumpy.

　　那些工作有被机器取代风险的人们仍然是烦躁的。

　　人机对战机器学习.jpg

　　A study published in 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford⁵ University stoked anxieties when it found that 47% of jobs in America were vulnerable to automation.

　　在2013年，牛津大学的Carl Benedikt Frey 和 Michael Osborne公布的研究报告增加了（人们的）焦虑情绪。报告中指出美国47%的工作会受到自动化的影响。

　　Machines are mastering ever more intricate tasks, such as translating texts or diagnosing illnesses.

　　机器正在掌握更复杂的能力，例如翻译文本或者诊断病情。

　　Robots are also becoming capable of manual labour that hitherto could be carried out only by dexterous⁶ humans.

　　到目前为止，机器人的动手能力也越来越接近熟练工。

　　Yet America is the high ground when it comes to automation, according to a new report from the same pair along with other authors.

　　而据来自同一研究机构的新报告指出，在自动化进程中，美国还是有优势的。

　　The proportion of threatened jobs is much greater in poorer countries: 69% in India, 77% in China and as high as 85% in Ethiopia.

　　在更落后国家中失业率将会更加加剧：印度69%，中国77%，埃塞俄比亚高达85%。

　　There are two reasons. First, jobs in such places are generally less skilled.

　　有两个原因。第一：这些地方的工作一般缺乏技术含量。

　　Second, there is less capital tied up in old ways of doing things.

　　第二：旧的生产方式占用较少的资金。

　　Driverless taxis might take off more quickly in a new city in China, for instance, than in an old one in Europe.

　　例如：比起欧洲某个古老的城市，无人驾驶可能更快的在中国的新城市中投入。

　　Attracting investment in labour-intensive manufacturing has been a route to riches for many developing countries, including China.

　　包括中国在内的许多发展中国家，在劳动密集型制造业吸引投资是一个致富的方法。

　　But having a surplus of cheap labour is becoming less of a lure⁷ to manufacturers.

　　但是拥有过剩的廉价劳动力对制造商的吸引越来越小。

　　An investment in industrial robots can be repaid in less than two years.

　　工业机器人的投资不用两年就可以回本。

　　This is a particular worry for the poor and underemployed in Africa and India, where industrialisation has stalled at low levels of income—a phenomenon dubbed⁸ “premature deindustrialisation” by Dani Rodrik of Harvard University.

　　在落后以及低就业率的非洲和印度这样的情况尤其值得担心，这些国家的工业化进程已经完全滞后在一个低收入水平。哈弗大学的Dani Rodrik把这也现象称为“过早的工业倒退”。

　　Rich countries have more of the sorts of jobs that are harder for machines to replicate—those that require original ideas (creating advertising) , or complex social interactions (arguing a case in court) , or a blend of analysis and dexterity⁹ (open-heart surgery) .

　　富裕的国家能提供更多样，并且不是机器能简单复制的工作，例如那些需要创意的（广告），需要复杂的社会活动（律师），以及需要融合分析和熟练操作的工作（开胸手术）。

　　But poorer countries are not powerless.

　　但是更落后的国家不是无能为力的。

　　Just because a job is deemed at risk from automation, it does not necessarily mean it will be replaced soon, notes Mr Frey.

　　Frey先生解释说：“虽然一份工作存在被自动化取代的风险，但它不一定意味着不久就会被取代。”

　　The cheapness of labour in relation to capital affects the rate of automation.

　　与廉价劳动力相关的投资成本影响了自动化的普及。

　　Passing laws that make it less costly¹⁰ to hire and fire workers is likely to slow its advance.

　　法律允许的雇佣和解雇工人的低成本也容易减缓它的迭代。

　　Scale also matters: farms in many poor countries are often too small to benefit from machines that have been around for decades.

　　规模同样会影响它：许多落后国家的农业规模太小以至于不能从自动化中得到利润，这样的情况持续了差不多有数十年。

　　Consumer preferences are a third barrier.

　　消费习惯是第三个障碍。

　　Mr Burr is hardly alone in hating automated checkouts¹¹, which explains why 3m cashiers are still employed in America.

　　Burr先生不是唯一一个讨厌自动收银的人，这很好的解释了为什么美国仍然有三百万的收营员。

　　1.poor countries 落后国家

　　例句:Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy¹².

　　很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

　　2.industrial robots 工业机器人

　　例句:He was awarded his PhD for a thesis on industrial robots.

　　他凭一篇研究工业机器人的论文获得博士学位。

　　3.manual labour 体力劳动

　　例句:Agricultural mechanization has reduced the need for manual labour.

　　农业机械化已降低了对人力对需求。

　　4.diagnosing illnesses 诊断病情

　　例句:Preventive care is essential to diagnosing and treating illnesses before they require costly medical interventions¹³.

　　在他们需要昂贵的医疗干预之前，预防保健对疾病的诊断和治疗是非常必要的。

1 automated   

a.自动化的

参考例句：

• The entire manufacturing process has been automated. 整个生产过程已自动化。
• Automated Highway System (AHS) is recently regarded as one subsystem of Intelligent Transport System (ITS). 近年来自动公路系统(Automated Highway System,AHS)，作为智能运输系统的子系统之一越来越受到重视。

2 checkout   

n.（超市等）收银台，付款处

参考例句：

• Could you pay at the checkout.你能在结帐处付款吗。
• A man was wheeling his shopping trolley to the checkout.一个男人正推着购物车向付款台走去。

3 comedian   

n.喜剧演员；滑稽演员

参考例句：

• The comedian tickled the crowd with his jokes.喜剧演员的笑话把人们逗乐了。
• The comedian enjoyed great popularity during the 30's.那位喜剧演员在三十年代非常走红。

4 apron   

n.围裙；工作裙

参考例句：

• We were waited on by a pretty girl in a pink apron.招待我们的是一位穿粉红色围裙的漂亮姑娘。
• She stitched a pocket on the new apron.她在新围裙上缝上一只口袋。

5 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

6 dexterous   

adj.灵敏的；灵巧的

参考例句：

• As people grow older they generally become less dexterous.随着年龄的增长，人通常会变得不再那么手巧。
• The manager was dexterous in handling his staff.那位经理善于运用他属下的职员。

7 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

8 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 dexterity   

n.(手的)灵巧，灵活

参考例句：

• You need manual dexterity to be good at video games.玩好电子游戏手要灵巧。
• I'm your inferior in manual dexterity.论手巧，我不如你。

10 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

11 checkouts   

n.检验，校验( checkout的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The hypermarket stations had a wide selection of branded foods, clean toilets, friendly service and fast checkouts. 这家超大型连锁加油站有各种名牌食品、洁净的卫生间、友好的服务并且结帐迅速。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Make sure all checkouts paid by credit card have been posted accordingly. 确保所有的信用卡结帐都已及时过账。 来自互联网

12 autocracy   

n.独裁政治，独裁政府

参考例句：

• The revolution caused the overthrow of the autocracy.这场革命导致了独裁政体的结束。
• Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy.很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

13 interventions   

n.介入，干涉，干预( intervention的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Economic analysis of government interventions deserves detailed discussion. 政府对经济的干预应该给予充分的论述。 来自辞典例句
• The judge's frequent interventions made a mockery of justice. 法官的屡屡干预是对正义的践踏。 来自互联网