经济学人:中国经济数据 正中红心

 　　Finance and economics: China's economic data Right on target

　　中国经济数据，正中红心

　　Is growth really 7% a year?

　　增长率当真是年7%？

　　It all seems a little too perfect to be true.

　　一切似乎完美得难以置信。

　　The Chinese government set a growth target of “about 7%” this year; the economy, ever responsive to the Communist Party's needs, has hit exactly that number for two quarters in a row.

　　中国政府今年年初制定了“约7%”的增长目标；像是一向为了回应共产党的需求，中国经济连续两个季度准确命中了7%的目标。

　　中国经济数据正中红心.jpeg

　　Cue a chorus of scepticism.

　　这暗合了某些怀疑论调。

　　The first quarter did look suspicious.

　　第一季度的确看着可疑。

　　Growth in industrial production was the weakest since the depths of the financial crisis; the property market, a pillar of the economy, crumbled¹.

　　工业产值增长率降至金融危机后的最低点；房地产市场这一经济支柱也严重垮塌。

　　China reported real growth (ie, after accounting² for inflation) of 7% year on year in the first quarter, but nominal³ growth of just 5.8%.

　　中国发布的第一季度实际增长率（即考虑通货膨胀后的增长率）为同比增长7%，但名义增长率仅为5.8%。

　　The only way to arrive at the higher real figure was to put the GDP deflator, a measure of inflation, at -1.1%.

　　使得真实增长率达到更高水平的唯一途径是GDP平减指数（通货膨胀衡量指标）调整为-1.1%。

　　That implied the economy suffered broad-based deflation, a bizarre claim given that consumer prices rose by more than 1% at the same time.

　　这意味着中国经济遭受了大范围通货紧缩，但离奇的是与此同时，消费价格增长大于1%。

　　Had the GDP deflator been more accurate, Chang Liu and Mark Williams of Capital Economics reckon, real growth in the first quarter would have been one or two percentage points lower.

　　凯投宏观的刘畅和马克·威廉姆斯测算，如果GDP平减指数能更加精确，那么第一季度的实际增长率将会再低一至二个百分点。

　　The data for the second quarter are more credible⁴.

　　第二季度的数据则更为可信。

　　In nominal terms, growth rebounded⁵ strongly to 7.1%.

　　名义利率强势反弹至7.1%。

　　The corollary is that the GDP deflator is now 0.1%, a reading that is much more consistent with rising consumer prices and falling producer prices.

　　其必然结果是GDP平减指数现已达到0.1%，表现得与增长的消费价格和下跌的生产价格更为一致。

　　There were signs of some tampering⁶: without explanation, the national bureau of statistics cut the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the second quarter of 2014 to 1.9% from 2%.

　　但篡改痕迹仍然存在：国家统计局将2014年第二季度的环比增长率从2%改为1.9%，且未对此做出任何解释。

　　That doubtless flattered the data for the second quarter of this year by lowering the base for comparison.

　　这种降低比较基数的行为无疑是对今年第二季度数据的美化。

　　But the impact is small: a few tenths of a percentage point, perhaps.

　　但这影响不大，大概只是零点几个百分点而已。

　　What is more, the sources of Chinese growth in the second quarter were less mysterious than in the first.

　　此外，二季度中国增长率的来源比之一季度要来的更加明朗。

　　Although investment continued to slow, services accelerated.

　　投资虽持续放缓，服务业却加速上升。

　　Industry grew by 5.9% year on year in the second quarter, down from 6.4% in the first quarter.

　　二季度工业同比增长了5.9%，低于一季度的6.4%。

　　In contrast, services jumped to 8.9% growth from 7.9% in the first quarter.

　　与之相反，服务业的增长率从一季度的7.9%跃至8.9%。

　　That matters since services now account for a larger share of Chinese GDP than industry.

　　自从服务业占GDP比重大于工业之后，这就显得尤为重要。

　　This acceleration⁷ in services is unlikely to last.

　　这种服务业的增长不太可能持续。

　　It derives⁸ to a large extent from the soaring stock market, which boosted financial firms.

　　它在很大程度上来源于股市飙升时促进的金融机构的繁荣。

　　That lift has presumably become a drag in recent weeks as share prices have dived.

　　但在股价骤降之后，近几周，原先的助力恐怕就成了累赘。

　　Transient as it was, however, China's statisticians did not invent the financial boom.

　　然而这是暂时的，毕竟这一场金融盛况并不是中国的统计学家编造出来的。

　　1.economic data 经济数据

　　例句:The message here has been mixed, in line with recent economic data.

　　与最近的美国经济数据一样，和这个问题相关的消息好坏参半。

　　2.stock market 证券市场

　　例句:He's been studying and playing the stock market since he was 14.

　　他从14岁起就一直在研究和买卖证券。

　　3.In contrast 与之相反

　　例句:In contrast, the lives of girls in well-to-do families were often very sheltered

　　相反，生活在富裕家庭的女孩子通常都备受呵护。

　　4.growth rate 增长率

　　例句:In recent years, our economy fluctuated significantly, accompanied with deflation and high growth rate.

　　近年来，我国经济波动比较大，甚至出现了通货紧缩和高增长并存的现象。

1 crumbled   

（把…）弄碎， （使）碎成细屑( crumble的过去式和过去分词 )； 衰落； 坍塌； 损坏

参考例句：

• He crumbled the bread in his fingers. 他用手指把面包捻碎。
• Our hopes crumbled when the business went bankrupt. 商行破产了，我们的希望也破灭了。

2 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

3 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

4 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

5 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

6 tampering   

v.窜改( tamper的现在分词 )；篡改；（用不正当手段）影响；瞎摆弄

参考例句：

• Two policemen were accused of tampering with the evidence. 有两名警察被控篡改证据。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• As Harry London had forecast, Brookside's D-day caught many meter-tampering offenders. 正如哈里·伦敦预见到的那样，布鲁克赛德的D日行动抓住了不少非法改装仪表的人。 来自辞典例句

7 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

8 derives   

v.得到( derive的第三人称单数 )；（从…中）得到获得；源于；（从…中）提取

参考例句：

• English derives in the main from the common Germanic stock. 英语主要源于日耳曼语系。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He derives his income from freelance work. 他以自由职业获取收入。 来自《简明英汉词典》