经济学人:"边境调整"企业税?美墨交易将何去何从

 　　United States

　　美国

　　Trade with Mexico: Playing Chicken

　　美墨交易：威胁

　　Farmers and Texans would lose most from barriers to trade with Mexico.

　　农民和德州人将因墨西哥贸易障碍损失惨重

　　MEXICO sells America more goods than America sells Mexico, and it enrages¹ President Donald Trump².

　　墨西哥出售给美国的产品比美国卖给墨西哥的多，这一点让特朗普总统大为恼火。

　　In 2015 the difference was $58 billion (0.3% of GDP).

　　2015年这一差值为580亿美元（占美国GDP的0.3%）。

　　美墨交易威胁.jpeg

　　That is enough, thinks Mr Trump, to justify³ rewriting the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which allows goods to flow across the Rio Grande free of tariffs⁵.

　　这个数据在特朗普看来，已足以证明修改北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的合理性，该协定对穿越格兰德河的货物实行零关税。

　　Yet the trade deficit⁶ masks bigger figures: America sends almost $240bn in goods to Mexico every year.

　　不过贸易逆差背后隐藏着更大的数字：美国每年销往墨西哥的货物价值大概为2400亿美元。

　　Were NAFTA to disappear in a renegotiation-gone-wrong, many Americans would pay a price—and not just as consumers faced with dearer avocados.

　　假如北美自由贸易协定再次谈判出现问题而失效，很多美国人将为此付出代价——这不仅仅是消费者要承受更贵的牛油果那么简单。

　　Which American producers would suffer?

　　那么作为美国厂商，谁将首当其冲呢？

　　Suppose, optimistically, that each side followed World Trade Organisation⁷ (WTO) rules.

　　乐观的设想是，双边均遵守世贸协定。

　　Then, tariffs would revert⁸ to so-called “most favoured nation” rates. (That might sound vaguely⁹ friendly, but it simply means neither side can offer a different deal from what it gives to any other WTO member.)

　　那么关税将恢复成所谓的最惠国税率（听起来可能有种含蓄的亲切感，但简单来说就是任何一方都不能提供给对方不同于其他WTO成员的待遇）。

　　By matching these tariffs to trade flows for about 5,000 goods, The Economist¹⁰ has estimated which states’ exporters would be worst-affected by the levies¹¹.

　　通过将关税与大约5000种产品想对应，经济学人杂志对哪个州的出口商将受到征税的最严重影响进行了估算。

　　Farm states face the highest charges.

　　农业州面临着最高的费用。

　　Whacking¹² tariffs on malt, potatoes and dairy products would cause Idaho’s exports to Mexico to incur¹³ an average levy¹⁴ of nearly 15%.

　　麦芽、马铃薯及乳制品高昂的关税将使爱达荷州对墨西哥的出口产品的平均税率高达15%。

　　Iowa and Nebraska would pay on average 12.5% for the privilege of sending goods over Mr Trump’s wall.

　　爱荷华州及内布拉斯加州也将支付平均12.5%的税才有权穿越“特朗普墙”。

　　Some products would be particularly badly hit.

　　部分产品将尤其受到重创。

　　In 2015 Iowa’s farmers shipped $132m of high-fructose corn syrup¹⁵ to Mexico.

　　2015年爱荷华州的农民运送了价值13200万美元的高果糖玉米糖浆到墨西哥。

　　Without NAFTA, Mexico would slap a tooth-aching 100% tariff⁴ on the stuff.

　　如果没有北美自由贸易协定，墨西哥将对此征收100%的关税。

　　Little wonder that the farm lobby tends vocally¹⁶ to support free trade.

　　农业团体发声支援自由贸易不足为奇。

　　Yet farm states are lucky to have plenty of customers elsewhere.

　　但幸运的是农业州在别处也有大量的消费者。

　　Idaho’s exports to Mexico are worth less than half a percent of its GDP.

　　爱达荷州对墨西哥的出口不到其GDP的0.5%。

　　Other state economies are more tangled¹⁷ up with Mexico’s.

　　其他州的经济却和墨西哥紧密相关。

　　These places should worry about NAFTA’s fate despite facing low average tariffs.

　　尽管平均关税不高，但这些州更应该担忧北美自由贸易协定的命运。

　　Among this group, Texas stands out.

　　在这个组合里，德克萨斯州首当其冲。

　　It faces an average tariff of only 3%, but its exports to Mexico are worth nearly 6% of its GDP (compared with 1.3% nationally).

　　尽管其平均关税仅有3%，但对墨西哥出口占其GDP接近6%（全美为1.3%）。

　　As in Iowa, farmers would suffer.

　　同爱荷华州一样，农场主会蒙受损失。

　　Texan cuts of Gallus domesticus—otherwise known as chicken—would incur the largest tariff bill, $174m, of any single product category in the country.

　　德州出口家禽（也就是鸡类）的减少，会造成被征收全国各类货品中最高昂的关税，高达1740万美元。

　　In total, as a percentage of GDP, Texas would pay more than any other state.

　　支出所占的GDP比例比其他州都要多。

　　Michigan also fits this category.

　　密歇根州同样属于这一范畴。

　　Its exports of cars and parts—many of which end up back in America—would attract tariffs averaging only about 5%.

　　其汽车及零部件出口将被征收平均大约5%的关税，

　　But with such shipments totalling $4.1bn, the bill would be painfully large.

　　但如此大的运输量将使关税支出达到42亿美元，这是让人难以承受的高昂费用。

　　All this gives Mexico some leverage¹⁸.

　　这给墨西哥带来了一些优势。

　　But Mr Trump has a stronger hand, because Mexican firms depend more on American consumers than vice¹⁹ versa.

　　不过特朗普更为强势，因为相较美国企业来说，墨西哥企业更为依赖美国消费者。

　　Part of the problem may be that rural America is already in the bag for the Republicans.

　　问题在于，美国农业州已经是共和党的囊中之物。

　　Of the 25 states which would pay most in tariffs, as a percentage of their GDP, only four voted for Hillary Clinton in November.

　　即将承担关税占GDP比例最高的的25个州，在11月仅有4个州对希拉里克林顿投了赞成票。

　　Mr Trump may not feel any need to obey WTO rules.

　　特朗普并无意遵守WTO规则。

　　The White House’s latest trade spat²⁰ is with Germany, a country already paying WTO tariffs (because no trade deal exists with the European Union).

　　白宫最近指责了德国的贸易政策，尽管德国已经支付了WTO规定的关税。

　　Peter Navarro, Mr Trump’s chief trade adviser²¹, told the Financial Times on January 31st that the “grossly undervalued” euro has allowed Germany to “exploit” America.

　　特朗普的首席贸易顾问Peter Navarro在1月31日告诉金融时报，价值被极度低估的欧元导致德国“剥削”美国。

　　The White House has also recently hinted that it will adopt a congressional plan to “border-adjust” the corporate²² tax, which probably breaches²³ WTO rules.

　　白宫近期已经暗示将采取一项国会计划对企业税进行“边境调整”，这可能将违背WTO规定。

　　If Mexico retaliated²⁴ with rule breaking of its own, the costs to American producers would be greater—and harder to predict.

　　如果墨西哥也违背其原则来进行报复，美国生产者为此付出的代价将更为巨大，同时也更难以预测。

　　1.flow across 流经

　　例句:Secure communication is related to guaranteeing the integrity and confidentiality²⁵ of messages as they flow across the network.

　　安全通信是指在通过网络传送消息时确保消息的完整性和机密性。

　　2.end up 结束

　　例句:Every time they went dancing they ended up in a bad mood.

　　每次他们去跳舞，都会不欢而散。

　　3.vice versa 反之亦然

　　例句:We gossip about them and vice versa.

　　我们议论他们，他们也议论我们。

　　4.In total 总计

　　例句:I was with my husband for eight years in total.

　　我和丈夫在一起的时间总共有8年。

1 enrages   

使暴怒( enrage的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• That is exactly what enrages and frightens the Sunnis. 但这个点子带点垂死挣扎的味道：伊朗早已深植于伊拉克的逊尼派，这恰恰是逊尼派又惊又怕的原因。
• He often stabs people in the back, which enrages me. 他就会背后放冷箭，真让人火大。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

4 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

5 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

8 revert   

v.恢复，复归，回到

参考例句：

• Let us revert to the earlier part of the chapter.让我们回到本章的前面部分。
• Shall we revert to the matter we talked about yesterday?我们接着昨天谈过的问题谈，好吗？

9 vaguely   

adv.含糊地，暖昧地

参考例句：

• He had talked vaguely of going to work abroad.他含糊其词地说了到国外工作的事。
• He looked vaguely before him with unseeing eyes.他迷迷糊糊的望着前面，对一切都视而不见。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 levies   

（部队）征兵( levy的名词复数 )； 募捐； 被征募的军队

参考例句：

• At that time, taxes and levies were as many as the hairs on an ox. 那时，苛捐杂税多如牛毛。
• Variable levies can insulate farmers and consumers from world markets. 差价进口税可以把农民和消费者与世界市场隔离开来。

12 whacking   

adj.（用于强调）巨大的v.重击，使劲打( whack的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• a whacking great hole in the roof 房顶上一个巨大的窟窿
• His father found him a cushy job in the office, with almost nothing to do and a whacking great salary. 他父亲给他在事务所找到了一份轻松舒适的工作，几乎什么都不用做，工资还极高。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 incur   

vt.招致，蒙受，遭遇

参考例句：

• Any costs that you incur will be reimbursed in full.你的所有花费都将全额付还。
• An enterprise has to incur certain costs and expenses in order to stay in business.一个企业为了维持营业,就不得不承担一定的费用和开支。

14 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

15 syrup   

n.糖浆，糖水

参考例句：

• I skimmed the foam from the boiling syrup.我撇去了煮沸糖浆上的泡沫。
• Tinned fruit usually has a lot of syrup with it.罐头水果通常都有许多糖浆。

16 vocally   

adv. 用声音, 用口头, 藉著声音

参考例句：

• She is not SCREAMER or MOANER - She is VOCALLY APPRECIATIVE. 她并不乱叫或发牢骚，只是用声音表示喜怒。
• The left has been vocally against. 左派力量一直竭力声讨。

17 tangled   

adj. 纠缠的，紊乱的 动词tangle的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Your hair's so tangled that I can't comb it. 你的头发太乱了，我梳不动。
• A movement caught his eye in the tangled undergrowth. 乱灌木丛里的晃动引起了他的注意。

18 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

19 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

20 spat   

n.口角，掌击；v.发出呼噜呼噜声

参考例句：

• Her parents always have spats.她的父母经常有些小的口角。
• There is only a spat between the brother and sister.那只是兄妹间的小吵小闹。

21 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

22 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

23 breaches   

破坏( breach的名词复数 )； 破裂； 缺口； 违背

参考例句：

• He imposed heavy penalties for breaches of oath or pledges. 他对违反誓言和保证的行为给予严厉的惩罚。
• This renders all breaches of morality before marriage very uncommon. 这样一来，婚前败坏道德的事就少见了。

24 retaliated   

v.报复，反击( retaliate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• When he once teased her for her inexperience, she retaliated. 有一次，他讥讽她没有经验，她便反唇相讥。 来自辞典例句
• The terrorists retaliated by killing three policemen. 恐怖分子以杀死三名警察相报复。 来自辞典例句

25 confidentiality   

n.秘而不宣，保密

参考例句：

• They signed a confidentiality agreement. 他们签署了一份保守机密的协议。
• Cryptography is the foundation of supporting authentication, integrality and confidentiality. 而密码学是支持认证、完整性和机密性机制的基础。