经济学人:收缩包装 经济增长与经济衰退程度挂钩(2)

 　　To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era 他们吃惊的是，他们发现经济扩张时期的经济增长在最近时期已经下降

　　from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%. 从1820年和1870年的3.88%到自1950年3.06%——即使这两个时期中这些年份平均经济增长从1.4%上升到2.55%.

　　Instead, shorter and shallower slumps¹ led to rising long-term growth. 相反，时间更短，程度更浅的经济衰退导致了长期的经济增长。

　　Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. 收入在1820年和1870年中三分之一的年份下降，但是自从1950年仅在12%的年份中下降。

　　The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%. 每个经济衰退年份下降的比率也从3%降低到了1.2%.

　　So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth? 那么，为什么这些“增长逆转”在长度和深度方面下降了呢？

　　In another paper Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations 在另一篇 Messrs Broadberry 和 Wallis发现，传统的经济扩张

　　such as demographic change or a sectoral² shift from volatile³ agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully⁴ explain the shift. 如从不稳定的农业到更加稳定的服务部门中的人口变动或部门转变——并不能完全解释这一转变。

　　More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial⁵ courts. 更为重要的是法律地位的上升，保证了纠纷由公正的法庭解决。

　　Before the modern era, elites⁶ would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption⁷ and the like. 在现代时期以前，精英会为经济增长的战利品相互争夺，并通过战争，腐败和类似这样的方式恢复经济以占取一部分利益。

　　Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. 尊重法庭去解决争端阻止了这种事的发生。

　　With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought. 随着民粹主义政治家再次在全世界挑战法官的权威，这值得人们深思。

1 slumps   

萧条期( slump的名词复数 )； （个人、球队等的）低潮状态； （销售量、价格、价值等的）骤降； 猛跌

参考例句：

• Deflation could emerge from simultaneous slumps in the world's three major economies. 如果世界经济三大主体同时衰退，通货紧缩就会出现。
• This is the cycle of economic booms and slumps. 这是经济繁荣和经济萧条的周期变化。

2 sectoral   

adj.扇形的

参考例句：

• Is agriculture actually taxed by sectoral policies, or is It'subsidized? 按照部门政策，农业实际上是上缴了税还是得到了补贴呢？ 来自辞典例句
• In the 1980s this concept was used to buttress several so-called sectoral reciprocity proposals. 80年代这一原则曾被用来支持几个所谓部分互惠建议。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件

3 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

4 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

5 impartial   

adj.(in,to)公正的，无偏见的

参考例句：

• He gave an impartial view of the state of affairs in Ireland.他对爱尔兰的事态发表了公正的看法。
• Careers officers offer impartial advice to all pupils.就业指导员向所有学生提供公正无私的建议。

6 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

7 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。