经济学人:欧非贸易 政治风向的转变难预测(2)

 　　A more profound question is whether EPAs really are good for development. 一个更值得人思考的问题是是否经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）真的有助于将来更好的发展。

　　African manufacturers worry about European competition: nascent¹ industries are “prone to being overrun” by imports,  非洲产商对于欧洲竞争局势忧心忡忡：进口新兴产业易于"泛滥成灾"，

　　warns Segun Ajayi-Kadir of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, which lobbies against the west African deal. 反对西非贸易的尼日利亚制造商协会的成员S.A.K警告道。

　　EU officials point out that slashing² tariffs⁴ will help manufacturing by making imported machinery⁵ cheaper. 另一方面，欧盟官员指出削减关税将有助于降低进口机械的价格。

　　African markets would open gradually, and some sectors⁶ are excluded. 除去部分产业，非洲市场将会逐渐开放。

　　Details vary, but EPAs typically liberalise about 80% of imports over 20 years. 每个地方的细节情况可能有所不同，但是经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）总体而言已经放宽约80%的进口产品超过20年了。

　　Many of those goods already enter duty-free. 这其中的很多进口产品已经享受免税待遇。

　　The EPAs would make it harder (though not impossible) for countries to use certain kinds of industrial policy, such as export taxes. 经济伙伴关系协定将使国家更难（尽管不是不可能）利用某种产业政策，比如出口税。

　　The EU does not think such policies do much good anyway. 反正欧盟也不认为这样的政策有什么好处。

　　But some governments do, and do not want their hands tied. 但是一些政府有这个需求，因为他们不希望自己手头紧张。

　　They fear that promised safeguards, such as an “infant industry” clause, to protect some domestic businesses, would be hard to invoke⁷. 他们害怕已经承诺的保障措施，例如为了保障国内企业的“婴儿保障条款”，将很难调用。

　　They will also lose tariff³ revenues, an important source of income in countries where other taxes are tricky⁸ to raise. 他们还将失去关税收入，这是一个在其他税种难以提高的国家的一个重要的税种来源。

　　It all adds up to a “form of colonialism”, fumes⁹ John Magufuli, Tanzania's interventionist president. 这一切堆砌了“殖民主义的形式”，因此惹怒了坦桑尼亚的干涉主义总统约翰·马库夫里。

　　Economic evidence is mixed. 经济证据是混乱的。

　　Although models typically find trade gains on both sides, it is European exporters that would be the biggest winners. 虽然贸易的政策通常找到双方的贸易的共赢，但此次则是欧洲出口商将是最大的赢家。

　　Within Africa, gains would mostly accrue¹⁰ to better-off countries in sectors such as sugar, meat and dairy (rather than to manufacturing industry). 在非洲，利益主要归于发展更好的国家的产业例如食糖、肉类和乳制品，而不是制造业。

　　Their extra sales to the EU would come partly at the expense of trade with African partners, says David Luke of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. 联合国非洲经济委员会的David Luke说，欧盟的额外销售的部分，是以与非洲伙伴达成贸易为代价的。

　　Ultimately “it's about politics”, argues San Bilal of the European Centre for Development Policy Management, a think-tank. 最终，“这关于政治”，欧洲发展政策管理中心（智囊团其中一员的）圣比拉尔说道。

　　The EPAs are mired¹¹ in regional rivalries¹², he notes, against a backdrop of global trade uncertainty¹³ after the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's election. 他指出，EPAs（经济伙伴关系协定）陷入区域性争斗，是在与英国退欧投票和唐纳德·特朗普获选所产生的全球贸易不确定性的大背景进行对抗。

　　The next step for the east African deal is a quixotic mission to Brussels with Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president, at the helm. Don't expect the trade winds to start blowing. 对于布鲁塞尔而言，下一步在东非的交易是个不切实际的任务，在乌干达总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼掌舵的情况下就不要指望“贸易风”能开始。

1 nascent   

adj.初生的，发生中的

参考例句：

• That slim book showed the Chinese intelligentsia and the nascent working class.那本小册子讲述了中国的知识界和新兴的工人阶级。
• Despite a nascent democracy movement,there's little traction for direct suffrage.尽管有过一次新生的民主运动，但几乎不会带来直接选举。

2 slashing   

adj.尖锐的；苛刻的；鲜明的；乱砍的v.挥砍( slash的现在分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Slashing is the first process in which liquid treatment is involved. 浆纱是液处理的第一过程。 来自辞典例句
• He stopped slashing his horse. 他住了手，不去鞭打他的马了。 来自辞典例句

3 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

4 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

5 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

6 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 invoke   

v.求助于(神、法律)；恳求，乞求

参考例句：

• Let us invoke the blessings of peace.让我们祈求和平之福。
• I hope I'll never have to invoke this clause and lodge a claim with you.我希望我永远不会使用这个条款向你们索赔。

8 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

9 fumes   

n.(强烈而刺激的)气味，气体

参考例句：

• The health of our children is being endangered by exhaust fumes. 我们孩子们的健康正受到排放出的废气的损害。
• Exhaust fumes are bad for your health. 废气对健康有害。

10 accrue   

v.(利息等)增大，增多

参考例句：

• Ability to think will accrue to you from good habits of study.思考能力将因良好的学习习惯而自然增强。
• Money deposited in banks will accrue to us with interest.钱存在银行，利息自生。

11 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

12 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

13 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。