经济学人:科技股:重获信息泡沫时代高点(3)

 　　But the latest survey reflected fears that the enthusiasm may have gone too far:  但是最近的一个调查反映已经有人开始担忧是否对科技股的热情过头，

　　38% of managers thought that betting on tech stocks was the “most crowded trade” ; a net 9% had cut their exposure in the previous month. 38%的管理者认为在科技股上下注是最拥挤的贸易，前一个月有9%的帐户已经减持科技股了。

　　The risks facing the tech industry now are rather different from those that surfaced in 2000. 现在科技行业目前面临的风险和2000年的有很大不同。

　　Then, it became clear that many companies would burn through their cash long before they made a profit. 当时，很明显的一点是许多企业在开始盈利之前很久一直在烧钱。

　　This time, the industry is more mature; Apple's fastest growth is surely behind it, for example. 现在，科技行业更加成熟，例如苹果公司的最快发展速度明显跟不上行业发展速度。

　　Whereas the sector¹ was generally held in high regard in 2000, it is now the object of more suspicion,  2000年科技股被普遍高度重视，现在却成了怀疑对象，

　　whether it is public concern about individuals' privacy, Donald Trump's anti-Amazon tweets or EU fines against American tech giants. 是否公众会担心个人隐私问题，Donald Trump的反亚马逊tweets 或者欧盟反对美国科技巨头开出的罚单。

　　Regulation may yet prove a barrier to tech's long-term growth. 监管还没有被证明是科技长远发展的绊脚石。

　　So, history isn't repeating itself exactly. 所以，确切地说历史并没有重演。

　　There is nothing like the same stockmarket euphoria as there was at the turn of the century. 尽管现在有着当时的成交量，但一点也没有当时股票市场的疯狂。

　　Few people are trying to day-trade their way to riches or setting up a dotcom franchise² to sell dog food. 没有人会想着通过一天交易就变富裕或者建立网络公司的特许经营权来出售狗粮。

　　And tech stocks are not as much of an outlier as they were (along with media and telecoms firms) in 2000,  而且，科技股（包括媒体还有电信公司）已经不再像在2000年一样是“局外人”，

　　when many investors³ abandoned “old economy” companies in retailing⁴ and heavy industry. 当时许多投资者避免投资零售业和重工业这样的“老经济”公司。

　　But there is still plenty that can go wrong. 但是仍然有很多误入歧途。

　　The overall market is on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 30—a level surpassed only in 1929 and the late 1990s. 所有的市场都在围绕30%左右的市盈率进行一个调整性周期，这个水平只在1929年和二十世纪90年代末曾被超越过。

　　If the Federal Reserve tightens⁵ policy too aggressively, or the American economy slips into recession (or both), tech investors will get that sinking feeling again. 如果美联储采取过于紧缩货币的政策或者美国经济变得萧条（或者两种情况都发生），那么科技股投资者就会再次感到沮丧。

1 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

2 franchise   

n.特许，特权，专营权，特许权

参考例句：

• Catering in the schools is run on a franchise basis.学校餐饮服务以特许权经营。
• The United States granted the franchise to women in 1920.美国于1920年给妇女以参政权。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 retailing   

n.零售业v.零售(retail的现在分词)

参考例句：

• career opportunities in retailing 零售业的职业机会
• He is fond of retailing the news. 他喜欢传播消息。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 tightens   

收紧( tighten的第三人称单数 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• One set of provisions tightens emission standards. 一套使排放标准更加严格的规定。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Requires no special tools or fittings; hand tightens to relief valve outlet. 不需要专用工具或管件；用手将其紧固到安全阀上即可。