经济学人:代代叠加:庞氏骗局(1)

 　　Samuelson's paper was seminal¹ but not wholly original. 萨缪尔森的论文是开创性的，但不是完全原创的。

　　A similar model was described in 1947 by Maurice Allais, then working in a bureau of mining statistics in Paris,  1947年，类似的模型曾由当时正在巴黎的一个矿业统计机构工作的莫里斯·阿莱（Maurice Allais）对其做过描述。

　　but his contribution had the “misfortune to be written in French”, as one scholar has noted². 但是，正如一位学者指出的那样，他的贡献“的不幸是用法语写成的”。

　　The neverendingness of these models plays havoc³ with a lot of economic common sense. 这类模型的无穷无尽干扰了许多经济学共识。

　　Economists⁴ know in their bones that budget constraints⁵ eventually bind⁶ and that accounts must be settled at the end of the day. 经济学家从骨子里知道，预算约束终将收紧，账户必须要在当天结清。

　　But what if the end never quite arrives? 但是，如果这种终结永不到来呢？

　　Such parables⁷ may seem too contrived⁸ to be illuminating⁹. 这类寓言似乎太过勉强而不具有启发性。

　　Surely the islanders benefit from a Ponzi scheme only because the story arbitrarily denies them any way to save for their future. 的确，岛民们从庞氏骗局中获益，仅仅是因为这个故事武断地否决了他们为未来存钱的任何办法。

　　If the young could instead acquire a durable¹⁰ asset, they could take care of themselves in their old age by selling it for the things they need. 如果年轻人可以获得某种持久的资产作为代替，他们就可以通过为了自己所需要的东西而出售这种资产的方式，在自己老了的时候照看自己。

　　Instead of eating a cacao fruit, islanders could plant it to grow a new tree, which they could later rent or sell to young climbers when they retire. 代之以吃掉可可数的果实，岛民们可能将果实种在地中，让其长成一棵在他们退休时可以将其租赁或是卖给年轻的攀树者的新树。

　　In most cases, this kind of saving and investing does indeed serve people far better. 在大多数情况下，这类储蓄和投资在为人们服务方面要好很多。

　　Capital accumulation enlarges the economy's productive capacity, thereby¹¹ creating wealth, unlike Ponzi schemes, which merely spread it around. 资本积累扩大了经济体的生产能力，因而，创造了财富，这是它与仅仅是让财富流转庞氏骗局的不同之处。

　　Saving and investing both store value and add to it, turning one cacao fruit into a whole tree. 储蓄和投资都是储值和增值，把一粒可可果实变成了一棵大树。

　　Retirees can therefore expect to get more out of their investment than they put in. 因而，退休之人就可以预期从他们的投资中收获比当初投入的还要多的东西。

　　In some unusual cases, however, other factors may weigh in the Ponzi scheme's favour. 然而，在某些不常见的情况下，其他一些要素可能在庞氏骗局的恩惠中占据重要地位。

　　First, saving and investing may run into sharply diminishing returns. 首先，储蓄和投资可能遭遇大幅减少的回报。

　　If a society is eager to transfer resources into the future, it will accumulate a large stock of capital, which may depress the return on further investment. 如果某个社会急于将资源转移至未来，它将积累大量的资本，这些资本可能压制进一步投资的回报。

　　Think of an orchard¹² too densely¹³ packed with trees, each getting in the others' light and denuding¹⁴ their soil. 想像一个被过密地种上了树的果园，每一棵数都在争夺其他的树的阳光，掠夺其他的树的土壤。

1 seminal   

adj.影响深远的；种子的

参考例句：

• The reforms have been a seminal event in the history of the NHS.这些改革已成为英国国民保健制度史上影响深远的一件大事。
• The emperor's importance as a seminal figure of history won't be diminished.做为一个开创性历史人物的重要性是不会减弱的。

2 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

3 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

6 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

7 parables   

n.（圣经中的）寓言故事( parable的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Jesus taught in parables. 耶酥以比喻讲道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• In the New Testament are the parables and miracles. 《新约》则由寓言利奇闻趣事构成。 来自辞典例句

8 contrived   

adj.不自然的，做作的；虚构的

参考例句：

• There was nothing contrived or calculated about what he said.他说的话里没有任何蓄意捏造的成分。
• The plot seems contrived.情节看起来不真实。

9 illuminating   

a.富于启发性的，有助阐明的

参考例句：

• We didn't find the examples he used particularly illuminating. 我们觉得他采用的那些例证启发性不是特别大。
• I found his talk most illuminating. 我觉得他的话很有启发性。

10 durable   

adj.持久的，耐久的

参考例句：

• This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
• They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。

11 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

12 orchard   

n.果园，果园里的全部果树，(美俚)棒球场

参考例句：

• My orchard is bearing well this year.今年我的果园果实累累。
• Each bamboo house was surrounded by a thriving orchard.每座竹楼周围都是茂密的果园。

13 densely   

ad.密集地；浓厚地

参考例句：

• A grove of trees shadowed the house densely. 树丛把这幢房子遮蔽得很密实。
• We passed through miles of densely wooded country. 我们穿过好几英里茂密的林地。

14 denuding   

v.使赤裸( denude的现在分词 )；剥光覆盖物

参考例句：

• A weathering-denuding surface separates the lacustrine strata and layer of the loess in the Tuoketuo mesa. 野外观察表明托克托台地的湖相层与上覆的黄土之间存在风化剥蚀面。 来自互联网
• Mineral pyroelectricity can be used tothe denuding levels of deposits and to assess the mineralized district. 因此用矿物的热电性质可以对矿床的侵蚀面水平和矿化地段的远景作出评价。 来自互联网