2023年经济学人 2023可能和2022差不多糟（1）

 

    Finance & economics

    财经板块

    Buttonwood: Once more with feeling

    梧桐树：再一次，带着感情

    Investors¹ had an awful time in 2022; this year may be almost as bad2022年，投资者度过了一段糟糕的时光；今年可能也差不多After a nightmarish 2022, shell-shocked investors have losses to recoup and plenty to ponder.

    在经历了噩梦般的2022年之后，胆战心惊的投资者有很多损失需要弥补，也有很多事情需要思考。

    There are asset-class allocations to be made, industries to favour or shun² and every economic variable under the sun to forecast.

    需要进行资产类别配置，需要看好或避开一些行业，还需要预测每一个经济变量。

    Professional money managers have the extra headache of working out how to stop nervous clients racing³ for the exits.

    此外，专业基金经理还需解决一个令人头疼的问题，那就是如何阻止紧张的客户争相退出。

    But one question dominates the rest, and it is the impossible one that looms⁴ over every crash.

    但有一个问题是重中之重，这个不可能的问题笼罩着每一次崩盘。

    Is the worst over?

    最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

    Economically, there is a clear answer: this year will be grim.

    从经济上讲，答案很明确：今年将是严峻的一年。

    Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned on January 1st that a third of the global economy is likely to fall into recession in 2023.

    国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃1月1日警告称，2023年全球三分之一的经济体可能会陷入衰退。

    Downturns have probably already begun in the euro zone and Britain.

    欧元区和英国的经济衰退可能已经开始了。

    In a recent poll of economists⁵ carried out by the University of Chicago and the Financial Times, 85% thought America would follow before the year is out.

    在芝加哥大学和《金融时报》最近对经济学家进行的一项调查中，85%的人认为美国经济会在今年年底前开始衰退。

    This does not guarantee another bloodbath—it could even mean the opposite.

    这并不意味着一定会发生又一场大屠杀--甚至可能正相反。

    In theory, markets are forward-looking, and fears of recession stalked the world for much of 2022.

    从理论上讲，市场是具有前瞻性的，2022年的大部分时间里，对衰退的担忧一直困扰着世界各国。

    Such a widely held consensus⁶ should be baked into today’s prices, meaning even a marginally better outlook would buoy⁷ prices.

    如此广泛的共识应该反映在今天的价格中，意思是说即使前景只是略微好转也会提振价格。

    Indeed, analysts⁸ at JPMorgan Asset Management use the strength of agreement that there will be a recession to argue that stock prices will in fact end 2023 higher than they started.

    事实上，摩根大通资产管理公司的分析师利用认为经济将出现衰退的这一共识，辩称2023年底的股价实际上将高于开始时的水平。

    They are not alone in their optimism.

    并非只有他们持乐观态度。

    Goldman Sachs’s researchers think share prices will fall in the near term, but recover by the end of the year.

    高盛的研究人员认为，近期股价将会下跌，但到今年年底就会回升。

    Deutsche Bank’s bullish lot reckon the S&P 500 index of large American firms will end the year 17% higher than it now stands.

    德意志银行的看涨人士认为，到今年年底，美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数将比现在高出17%。

    If this year offers a repeat of 2022, with heavy losses for both stocks and bonds, it will be an unusual one.

    如果今年重蹈2022年的覆辙，股票和债券都遭受重创，那今年将会是不寻常的一年。

    Stock prices mostly go up.

    股票价格大多会上涨。

    They rarely decline two years in a row.

    股价很少会连续两年下降。

    The S&P 500 last did so two decades ago during the bursting of the dotcom bubble.

    标准普尔500指数上一次这样下降，还是在20年前互联网泡沫破裂的时候。

    Last year’s bond rout⁹ was on account of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s, which is unlikely to be repeated.

    去年债券暴跌是因为美联储以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息，而这种情况不太可能重演。

    Even so, there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead.

    但即便如此，我们仍有理由相信未来还会有更多令人痛苦的问题。

    The first is that shares, relative to their underlying¹⁰ earnings¹¹, remain expensive by historical standards.

    第一个问题就是，以历史标准衡量，股票相对于其基本收益而言仍然很贵。

    Despite last year’s plunge¹², the price-to-earnings ratio for “growth” stocks, those of companies promising¹³ big future profits, has fallen back only to where it was in 2019.

    尽管去年股价暴跌，但“成长型”股票的市盈率，即那些未来有望获得巨大利润的公司的股票市盈率，也不过是回落到了2019年的水平。

    This was its highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, a level which was reached after a decade-long bull market.

    这是2007年至2009年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，是在长达10年的牛市之后达到的水平。

    True, “value” stocks, those with a low price compared with the firm’s book assets, look more attractive.

    诚然，与公司账面资产相比价格较低的“价值型”股票看起来更具吸引力。

    But as recession sets in, both types are vulnerable to earnings downgrades that are, for the most part, yet to materialise.

    但随着衰退的到来，这两类股票都很容易受到盈利下调的影响，而这些下调大多还没有发生。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 shun   

vt.避开，回避，避免

参考例句：

• Materialists face truth,whereas idealists shun it.唯物主义者面向真理，唯心主义者则逃避真理。
• This extremist organization has shunned conventional politics.这个极端主义组织有意避开了传统政治。

3 racing   

n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的

参考例句：

• I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
• The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。

4 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

7 buoy   

n.浮标；救生圈；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The party did little to buoy up her spirits.这次聚会并没有让她振作多少。
• The buoy floated back and forth in the shallow water.这个浮标在浅水里漂来漂去。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 rout   

n.溃退，溃败；v.击溃，打垮

参考例句：

• The enemy was put to rout all along the line.敌人已全线崩溃。
• The people's army put all to rout wherever they went.人民军队所向披靡。

10 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

11 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

12 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

13 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。