2023年经济学人 2023可能和2022差不多糟（2）

 

 

    Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity¹ into the market via quantitative² easing (QE).

    此外，今天的估值是在一个不同寻常的时期实现的：在这个时期，各国央行通过量化宽松(QE)向市场注入了无尽的流动性。

    By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed³ yields and nudged investors⁴ to seek returns in riskier⁵ assets, like stocks.

    通过用新创造的货币购买政府债券，美联储和其他机构压低了收益率，促使投资者在股票等风险较高的资产中寻求回报。

    Now these QE programmes are being kicked into reverse.

    现在，这些量化宽松计划正在被逆转。

    One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt.

    一个后果是，各国政府将更多地依赖私人投资者来持有其债务。

    In the fiscal⁶ year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury⁷ may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that.

    在2022-23财年，美国财政部可能需要从投资者那里借入的资金，几乎是新冠肺炎疫情暴发前两年每年水平的两倍，是之前五年平均水平的四倍。

    Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut⁸ could drive bond prices down and yields up.

    即使各国央行不提高短期利率，这种过剩也可能压低债券价格，推高收益率。

    Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.

    与2022年一样，相比之下，股票看起来就不那么有吸引力了。

    The final reason for gloom is a divergence⁹ between economists¹⁰ and investors.

    悲观的最后一个原因是经济学家和投资者之间的分歧。

    Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided.

    尽管书呆子们押注于经济衰退，但许多投机者仍希望经济衰退能够避免。

    Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining.

    市场预计美联储的基准利率将在今年上半年达到低于5%的峰值，然后开始下降。

    The central bank’s governors disagree.

    央行行长们对此持不同意见。

    They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%.

    他们预计今年年底利率将超过5%。

    Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary¹¹ guardians¹² do not have the heart to inflict¹³ the pain it would take to get it down.

    因此，投资者要么押注通胀降至目标的速度将比美联储预期的更快，要么押注货币监管机构没有勇气承受降低通胀所需的痛苦。

    There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right.

    当然，他们有可能被证明是正确的。

    But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness¹⁴, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting.

    但在2022年的大部分时间里，市场都低估了美联储的鹰派强硬手段，最终让美联储行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次又一次的会议上提醒市场注意自己的位置。

    If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable¹⁵ year for investors.

    如果这种模式重演，2023年对投资者来说将又是悲惨的一年。

1 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

2 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

3 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

8 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

9 divergence   

n.分歧，岔开

参考例句：

• There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
• In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之，这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。

10 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

12 guardians   

监护人( guardian的名词复数 )； 保护者，维护者

参考例句：

• Farmers should be guardians of the countryside. 农民应是乡村的保卫者。
• The police are guardians of law and order. 警察是法律和秩序的护卫者。

13 inflict   

vt.(on)把…强加给，使遭受，使承担

参考例句：

• Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
• Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。

14 hawkishness   

参考例句：

• That hawkishness is part of the reason for the euro's rise. 这种制止通胀的态度是欧元上升的一部分原因。

15 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。