金融世界 第二十三讲 亚洲金融危机 （一）

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金融世界 第二十三讲

这一讲我们要跟您谈谈二十世纪末发生在亚洲的金融危机。

澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克首先介绍了这场亚洲金融风暴是如何爆发的。他在谈话中使用了这样一些词汇：

1 overseas creditors¹ 海外债权人

2 international capital flows 国际资本流动

3 short-term capital 短期资本

4 herd² behavior 群体恐慌行为

巴里克拉克说：

The crisis became evident in July, 1997. Overseas creditors began withdrawing short-term capital from the region, placing intense pressure on the exchange rates for the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea.

These five countries had been heavily dependent on international capital flows. In 1996, there was an inflow of $US 93 billion. But a year later the flow was reversed. In 1997 there was an outflow of $12 billion.

As capital was withdrawn³ from the region and the exchange rates of the five countries depreciated⁴, or fell, panic set in amongst foreign creditors.

The result was a deepening spiral. As capital was withdrawn, the exchange rate depreciated, leading to more capital outflows.

Economists⁵ call these panics 'herd behaviour'; where the creditors in a market all rush, or stampede, for the exit, trying to get out first.

Usually, their behaviour is not based on the real underlying⁶ economic conditions in the market (the fundamentals), but rather on the behaviour and expected behaviour of other creditors.

接下来我们把巴里克拉克的这段谈话及中文翻译分段听一遍：（英文略）

这场危机在一九九七年七月变得显而易见。海外债权人开始从这一地区撤出短期资本，使泰国、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和韩国这五国货币的兑换率受到极大压力。

这五国都严重依赖国际资本的注入。一九九六年，流入这些国家的资本是九百三十亿美元，但一年之后资本的流向逆转。一九九七年时有一百二十亿美元的资本流出。

随着资本撤出这一地区以及五国的货币汇率下调或跌落，外国债权人开始感到恐慌。

其结果是恶性循环。随着资本的撤出，汇率下跌，导致更多的资本流出。

经济学家称这种恐慌是群体恐慌行为，就是市场上的债权人全都蜂拥或惊慌地要抢先退出市场。

通常他们不是根据市场的基本经济条件（根本准则）来采取行动，而是根据其他债权人的行为或是预计的行为来采取行。

1 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 herd   

n.兽群，牧群；vt.使集中，把…赶在一起

参考例句：

• She drove the herd of cattle through the wilderness.她赶着牛群穿过荒野。
• He had no opinions of his own but simply follow the herd.他从无主见，只是人云亦云。

3 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

4 depreciated   

v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的过去式和过去分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视

参考例句：

• Fixed assets are fully depreciated. 折旧足额。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Shares in the company have depreciated. 该公司的股票已经贬值。 来自辞典例句

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。