PBS高端访谈:金融"黑天鹅"是如何推动市场下跌的?

A sell-off hit the financial markets today over worries about Chinese real estate and U.S. Federal Reserve policy.

由于担心中国房地产市场和美国联邦储备委员会的政策，今天金融市场遭遇抛售。

The Dow Jones industrial average gave up 614 points to close at 33, 970.

道琼斯工业平均指数下降614点，收于33970点。

The loss of 1.8 percent was the worst since July.

1.8%的跌幅是自7月以来的最大跌幅。

The Nasdaq fell 330 points. That's more than 2 percent.

纳斯达克综合指数下跌330点，超过了2%。

The S&P 500 lost 75 points, or 1.7 percent.

标准普尔500指数下跌75点，或1.7%。

For both the Nasdaq and the S&P, those were the biggest percentage drops since May.

纳斯达克指数和标普指数均创下5月份以来的最大百分比跌幅。

We're joined now by Diane Swonk of Grant Thornton to help explain what was driving this.

我们现在邀请到了均富的戴安·斯旺克来解释这一现象背后的原因。

So, Diane, tell us, what was behind it?

戴安，跟我们说说，幕后黑手是什么？

Well, it's really a reality check. What we saw is that the markets had gotten very complacent¹ about the risks out there.

这是对现实的检验。我们看到的是，市场对风险已经变得非常自满。

What we call black swans, rare events, are now the norm, everything from China slowing.

我们所说的黑天鹅，罕见的事件，现在已经是常态，都是中国经济放缓导致的。

And what happens in China, especially in the real estate markets, can wash up on our own shores. We know that already too many ways.

在中国发生的事情，尤其是房地产市场发生的事情，可能会影响到我们自己。从很多方面可以看到这一点。

The second largest economy in the world slowing has an effect on the global economy.

世界第二大经济体增速放缓对全球经济产生了影响。

The Federal Reserve talking about reducing their asset purchases, taking their foot off the gas a bit, no longer providing quite as much support for the economy and for financial markets, and the shenanigans we're seeing in Washington over the lifting of the debt ceiling.

美联储说要减少资产购买，稍微放慢脚步，不再为经济和金融市场提供足够的支持，还有华盛顿关于提高债务上限的计谋。

Remember, we had a failure to lift the debt ceiling in 2011, which triggered a downgrade in our actual debt status.

记住这一点，2011年我们未能提高债务上限，这引发了我们实际债务状况的降级。

And the Federal Reserve had to intervene and say that Treasury² bonds were still investment-grade when that happened.

美联储不得不进行干预，说国债仍然是投资级债券。

So, all of this together and the fact that this is the time of year when people come back, and they actually start looking at financial markets and figuring out what's going on, the world has now got a little more black swans out there flocking, instead of just a rare event.

所以，所有这些加在一起，另外现在正是人们往后看的时候，他们开始观察金融市场并弄清楚发生了什么，世界现在发生的罕见事件不仅只有一个，而是有更多的黑天鹅正在聚集。

Good to hear the comparison. But, Diane, I see some analysts³ are saying today this shouldn't have been a total surprise, that it was due in some way?

这一比喻很不错。但是，黛安，今天我看到一些分析师说，这并不全是意外，只是在某种程度上是？

Absolutely. I mean, we have known about this for over a month now.

没错。我是说，距离我们知道这件事已经过去一个多月了。

And the payment by this one fund in China is due on Thursday.

中国的这只基金的付款将在周四到期。

And the question is, what will the Chinese government do it -- do in terms of restructuring it, so that it doesn't become a more contagious⁴ event, which we have already dealt with from China?

问题是，中国政府会怎么做？在重组方面会怎么做？这样影响力就不会扩散，我们已经受到了中国的影响。

But I think the larger issue is, you have also got the Delta⁵ variant⁶ out there, which has been a game-changer.

但我认为更大的问题是，美国也有德尔塔变异毒株，它已经改变了游戏规则。

Here we are going into the fall with the same kind of number of cases we had in January. That is disturbing as well.

现在美国的感染病例已经和一月份时持平，这同样令人不安。

We know that fatalities⁷ lag cases, and they're now picking up.

我们知道死亡人数增加的速度没有感染人数快，但它正在加速。

All of this together, I think, has come to sort of focus the financial markets.

所有这些问题，我觉得，已经成为金融市场关注的焦点。

At the same time the Federal Reserve is meeting and looking a little more hawkish⁸ with an economy that might be hotter in terms of inflation, but cooler in terms of growth.

与此同时，美联储正召开会议，看起来态度有点强硬，因为美国经济在通胀方面可能会更热，但在增长方面却更冷。

And that's not a combination anyone wants.

这是任何人都不想要的组合。

Well, we are all trying to understand it. And we thank you for giving us this smart look. Diane Swonk, thank you very much.

我们都在努力搞清楚。谢谢您今天的帅气造型。戴安·斯旺克，非常感谢。

1 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

2 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 contagious   

adj.传染性的，有感染力的

参考例句：

• It's a highly contagious infection.这种病极易传染。
• He's got a contagious laugh.他的笑富有感染力。

5 delta   

n.（流的）角洲

参考例句：

• He has been to the delta of the Nile.他曾去过尼罗河三角洲。
• The Nile divides at its mouth and forms a delta.尼罗河在河口分岔，形成了一个三角洲。

6 variant   

adj.不同的，变异的；n.变体，异体

参考例句：

• We give professional suggestions according to variant tanning stages for each customer.我们针对每位顾客不同的日晒阶段，提供强度适合的晒黑建议。
• In a variant of this approach,the tests are data- driven.这个方法的一个变种，是数据驱动的测试。

7 fatalities   

n.恶性事故( fatality的名词复数 )；死亡；致命性；命运

参考例句：

• Several people were injured, but there were no fatalities. 有几个人受伤，但没有人死亡。
• The accident resulted in fatalities. 那宗意外道致多人死亡。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。