PBS高端访谈:奥巴马的新阿富汗时间表是有多么现实的意义呢?

 　　In the White House Rose Garden today, President Obama declared 2014 a pivotal year in the march toward pulling nearly all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016.

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: At the beginning of 2015, we will have approximately 9,800 — 9,800 — U.S. service members in different parts of the country, together with our NATO allies and other partners.

　　By the end of 2015, we will have reduced that presence by roughly half, and we will have consolidated² our troops in Kabul and on Bagram Airfield³. One year later, by the end of 2016, our military will draw down to a normal embassy presence in Kabul, with a security assistance component⁴, just as we've done in Iraq.

　　The bottom line is, it's time to turn the page on more than a decade in which so much of our foreign policy was focused on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. When I took office, we had nearly 180,000 troops in harm's way. By the end of this year, we will have less than 10,000.

　　GWEN IFILL: The president's approach boils down to two sets of numbers, how many troops should remain, and how long they should stay.

　　Joining us to discuss the remaining U.S. footprint in Afghanistan are two people who played key strategic roles in overseeing America's longest war. Michele Flournoy was the undersecretary of defense⁵ for policy during the first Obama administration, the number three civilian⁶ leader at the Defense Department. She's now chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security. And Retired⁷ General Jack⁸ Keane was Army vice¹ chief of staff from 1999 to 2003. He was a prominent advocate of the military surges in Iraq and Afghanistan and now runs his own consulting firm.

　　Michele Flournoy, we now are at 32,000 troops on the ground. The president is talking about 9,800. What's — why is that a magic number?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY, Former Defense Department Official: Well, I think the commanders on the ground had asked for about 10,000 troops to support two missions.

　　One is continue the advising and assisting of Afghan forces as they develop and take the lead for securing the country. Then the second is the ability to support joint⁹ counterterrorism operations. So, I think that 9,800 number is quite robust¹⁰. It's very close to what commanders on the ground recommended to the president.

　　GWEN IFILL: Jack Keane, is that about the right number?

　　GEN. JACK KEANE (RET.), U.S. Army: Oh, it's not even close.

　　The commanders recommended 13,500. They wanted it conditions-based, not an arbitrary exit date. The only president has done here is changed the total withdrawal¹¹ of troops from 2014 to 2016, and not much of a residual¹² force is going to be in place; 9,800 troops will only be there for one year, and that will cut in half at the end of 20145.

　　And as a matter of fact, Gwen, this president has never accepted a force level recommendation from his commanders, not General Petraeus and McChrystal. For the level of the surge forces in Afghanistan, they wanted a minimum of 40,000. They got 30,000.

　　Not General Austin, who recommended a robust residual force in Iraq at the conclusion of that war in 2011. They got nothing. And not here with this recent recommendation of 13,500 troops, and make it condition-based, as opposed to an arbitrary timetable.

　　GWEN IFILL: Michele Flournoy.

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: I think, if you look at the 13,500 recommendation, that really is looking — you have got to look at the NATO force as a whole. And I think this commitment of nearly 10,000 U.S. troops will elicit¹³ that additional support from our key NATO allies, and then the total will be very close to that.

　　GWEN IFILL: That's part of the plan or is that just part of the hope?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: No, I think there have been active discussions with our NATO allies and there's very high confidence that they will contribute alongside us to the ongoing¹⁴ mission.

　　I think the more controversial part of this is the timeline, but I think one thing that needs to be clarified is, at the end of 2016, the president has talked about an office of security cooperation, which is sort of the normal model for security assistance to various allies and partners around the world.

　　Some of those offices can be quite robust, including several hundred trainers on the ground doing regular work with militaries. So the question of whether it's zero, whether it's several hundred, what that number will be in that construct is still an open question. And that will be informed by positions on the ground, presumably.

　　GWEN IFILL: Well, let's talk about the timeline, then, General Keane.

　　Do you think that this timeline, having it by next year and then drawing it almost completely down in two years, does that sound right to you?

　　GEN. JACK KEANE: No, that's not a serious proposal.

　　We are going to have 9,800 troops beginning with next year, 2015, and that force will only remain at 9,800 for one year. That's not a residual force, a military partnership¹⁵ with the Afghan national security forces to assist them and also to be able to conduct counterterrorism missions.

　　Anybody that's ever looked at the map of Afghanistan knows that you cannot conduct counterterrorism missions from a single base. That is impossible, given the scale of that country and the challenges that are there.

　　What's going to happen to us, Gwen, is we're going to risk squandering¹⁶ the gains that we have made, just as we did in Iraq. We're about to repeat the same mistake again.

　　GWEN IFILL: Part of the argument that he made at the White House today, that the president made, and his senior officials also made, was that things are better in Afghanistan. And is — are they better?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: There's been tremendous progress on the security front, certainly on the elections. They just had very successful elections, which will continue into a second round on development.

　　But this — the fight for Afghans is not over. There's still an insurgency¹⁷. There are still very real security problems and other development problems on the ground. So they will be continuing their efforts for quite some time.

　　But the nearly 10,000 troops will allow us to cover down on all of the Afghan diversions where they are deployed¹⁸, the sort of — on the four corners of Afghanistan, if you will, at least as long as the force is that big. As the force comes down in size, yes — in size, it will have to constrict¹⁹ to a smaller footprint.

　　I think the real question is, how do the conditions evolve on the ground? I think, today, we can't know if it's going to be enough or not enough, because we won't know until we see how things evolve on the ground over the next two years.

　　GWEN IFILL: These numbers are just a goal?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: I think — I think that it's the president's plan, but I would hope that, as we execute the plan, we're informed by how conditions on the ground actually evolve.

　　How does the ANSF perform? What happens with the insurgency and security write large? And that should be taken into consideration as we actually execute. And if things are — if our assumptions aren't holding, the — changes should be made.

　　GWEN IFILL: Jack Keane, let's talk about how things seem to be on the ground right now. There has been much discussion over the years about whether the Afghan security forces are ready to take over protecting their country from al Qaeda and other forces on their own. Has that changed?

　　GEN. JACK KEANE: Yes, they — I agree totally with Secretary Flournoy here that there has been significant improvement in the Afghan national security forces, and particularly with the stability and security we were able to achieve in the south.

　　That is where we put the 30,000 surge forces, largely in the south. And we truly drove the Taliban out of there. They have tried to come back, but the security forces, by and large, have been able to hold their own in that area. The concern has always been in the east.

　　We were never able to put in there any of the surge forces, because the president, over the objection of General Petraeus, withdrew those surge forces after 18 months, as he had announced at his previous West Point speech. So that is an unstable²⁰ situation, where the Haqqani Network operates in the east.

　　And the Afghans have really got their hands full in that area, and this is where the counterterrorism mission would be largely applied²¹ from Kabul all the way to the Pakistani border, and also where a lot of the security assistance for the Afghan security forces would have to take place. And I think we're going to put a lot of that at risk, frankly²².

　　GWEN IFILL: There's a big if in today's plan, which is that this bilateral²³ security agreement has to be signed that Hamid Karzai has resisted signing, Michele Flournoy, up until now. Do you have reason to be optimistic that it can be signed by the two gentlemen in the runoff?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: Yes, I do.

　　I think both candidates who are in the runoff, both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, have indicated that will sign. As one of their first acts, they will sign the BSA if elected president. They have given strong reassurances²⁴. I think the president conditioned his announcement today on the BSA being signed. But I think that is a very likely event once the elections are concluded.

　　GWEN IFILL: Jack Keane, is that realistic?

　　GEN. JACK KEANE: Yes.

　　I think there is a thought that maybe they wouldn't sign, given they don't like it. But the fact of the matter is, they will sign it. But I do believe while they will — I don't think they will argue with the administration over the number, I do think — I'm convinced that either one of those who — who is elected president will, in fact, try to get that timeline extended beyond 2016 with the 10,000 number, not with the 5,000 number, so it can truly make a difference.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's go back to those two numbers. Which is the more crucial number as we move forward, that timeline or that troop level, Michele Flournoy?

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: Well, I think the initial troop level is very important to reassure²⁵ the Afghans and stop some of the hedging behavior that was induced by people talking to go — talking about going immediately to zero.

　　So I think that is important. But, over time, I do think that we need to make sure that whatever drawdown timeline we have, we keep checking that against conditions on the ground and, if necessary, make — make adjustments.

　　GWEN IFILL: Michele Flournoy, the former undersecretary of defense, and General Jack Keane, retired four-star general, thank you both very much.

　　MICHELE FLOURNOY: Thank you.

1 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

2 consolidated   

a.联合的

参考例句：

• With this new movie he has consolidated his position as the country's leading director. 他新执导的影片巩固了他作为全国最佳导演的地位。
• Those two banks have consolidated and formed a single large bank. 那两家银行已合并成一家大银行。

3 airfield   

n.飞机场

参考例句：

• The foreign guests were motored from the airfield to the hotel.用车把外宾从机场送到旅馆。
• The airfield was seized by enemy troops.机场被敌军占领。

4 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

5 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

6 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

7 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

8 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

9 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

10 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

11 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

12 residual   

adj.复播复映追加时间；存留下来的，剩余的

参考例句：

• There are still a few residual problems with the computer program.电脑程序还有一些残留问题。
• The resulting residual chromatism is known as secondary spectrum.所得到的剩余色差叫做二次光谱。

13 elicit   

v.引出,抽出,引起

参考例句：

• It was designed to elicit the best thinking within the government. 机构的设置是为了在政府内部集思广益。
• Don't try to elicit business secrets from me. I won't tell you anything. 你休想从我这里套问出我们的商业机密, 我什么都不会告诉你的。

14 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

15 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

16 squandering   

v.（指钱，财产等）浪费，乱花( squander的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• You're faced with ending it all, of squandering what was given. 把到手的东西就这样随随便便弄掉。 来自辞典例句
• I see all this potential And I see squandering. 你们的潜力都被浪费了。 来自互联网

17 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

18 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

19 constrict   

v.压缩，收缩，阻塞

参考例句：

• Men and women alike have been constricted by traditional sexual roles.男性和女性同样受到传统性别角色的束缚。
• Severe migraine can be treated with a drug which constricts the blood vessels.严重的偏头疼可以用一种收缩血管的药物进行治疗。

20 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

21 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

22 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

23 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

24 reassurances   

n.消除恐惧或疑虑( reassurance的名词复数 )；恢复信心；使人消除恐惧或疑虑的事物；使人恢复信心的事物

参考例句：

• We have had some reassurances from the council that the building will be saved. 理事会保证会保留那座建筑，这使我们得到了些许安慰。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Everybody's reassurances have encouraged me. 大家的勉励鼓舞了我。 来自辞典例句

25 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。