PBS高端访谈:当希腊陷入债务危机,不确定就成了最确定的事情

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Let's look further at the potential consequences for Greece and its people, and the concerns about the Eurozone and the global economy.

　　Greg Ip is the chief economics commentator¹ for The Wall Street Journal and he joins me now.

　　So, Greg Ip, what do people believe is going to happen tomorrow?

　　GREG IP, The Wall Street Journal: Well, the actual default on the IMF loan is itself not a significant event, because the IMF is not about to fail or stop lending to other countries as a consequence of this.

　　It does mean that Greece is basically in arrears² to its international obligations. And it can't really move forward in terms of acquire — getting new funds, so that it can reopen banks the banks and have its budget function normally, until it comes to some sort of agreement with the IMF.

　　The bigger question hanging over Greece and its future with respect to the IMF and its relations are what happens with this referendum next Sunday. How will the Greek people vote? If they reject the agreement, the terms of the bailout that the IMF and the rest of Europe offered last week, then it's very hard to see what the path is back to some sort of negotiated settlement and indeed it's hard to see how Greece stays in the Euro.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Greece in a holding pattern is what you're saying essentially³ until next weekend. What do people expect will happen at that point?

　　GREG IP: Well, nobody really knows, partly because the referendum question itself is very unclear.

　　Greeks are being asked to vote yes or no to essentially a very technical 40-page document that actually until recently wasn't even available in Greek. Moreover, the Greek government has been telling voters, this is not a referendum on staying in the euro. We're staying in the euro no matter what.

　　But the creditors⁵ on the other side, the European Commission and the IMF, are saying the opposite. They're saying, de facto, if you vote no, then you're also saying no to Europe. So, I think depending on how Greek voters interpret the question will largely depend — determine how that referendum is decided⁶.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Greg, are you saying literally⁷ that this is completely up in the air at this point?

　　GREG IP: It completely is.

　　And I wouldn't even say that Greece is in a holding pattern, which would actually be a positive thing. I think the longer this uncertainty⁸ persists and the Greek banks stay closed, the worse it gets. Greece's economy is already in recession. In fact, it's the only major economy in the Eurozone right now to be shrinking, largely because of the uncertainty that has surrounded negotiations⁹ between Syriza, the government, and the creditor⁴ nations.

　　That's only going to get worse. And, moreover, even if they voted yes in the referendum, there is a lot of speculation¹⁰ that would force the Syriza government to resign, because how could they in good conscience carry out the reforms that the voters just agreed to, given how much they have opposed them?

　　And so you would still have weeks and weeks of uncertainty while waiting for a new government to form.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we have seen the effects already on the U.S. markets today, the Dow dropping 350 points. What about in Europe? What do you see happening? What do people think is going to happen in Europe and the effect on the United States?

　　GREG IP: Well, the near-term effect is probably likely to be much less muted in Europe and the rest of the world than it was four or five years ago, when the Greek crisis first erupted.

　　The reason is that other countries that are vulnerable like Greece is now have other places to go if they need to borrow money. Europe has a bailout fund and the European Central Bank has made it clear that they will lend money to countries that need it, provided those countries adhere to whatever agreement on reforms they have already reached with the European Commission.

　　So, you don't need — it's unlikely you will get the money fleeing from banks and the bond market shutting down, as we did three or four years ago. The bigger risk there is, I think, essentially political.

　　What Greece has demonstrated is that people do have a limit to their ability to tolerate endless austerity and pain. And while the situation is not as bad in countries like Italy, and Greece and Spain, it is still quite bad, and people do have a breaking point.

　　And if the economy gets worse in Europe — and, by the way, it had actually been doing relatively¹¹ well up until recently — then that could increase the intolerance of voters there for austerity, bring to power movements that are similar to Syriza in Greece, and I think once again raise questions about the future of the euro.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, there are many more questions about Greece, but we have a few seconds left, a minute.

　　I want to ask you about another financial crisis point, and that is Puerto Rico.

　　GREG IP: Yes.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: The governor over the weekend saying his country — his territory is about to move into bankruptcy¹². What's the story there? How did this happen?

　　GREG IP: Puerto Rico's problems have been developing for many years and indeed they are very similar to Greece's.

　　It's a chronically¹³ uncompetitive economy. But because it's locked in basically a monetary¹⁴ union with the United States, it can't devalue its currency, the dollar, in order to regain¹⁵ competitiveness. As a result, they have accumulated significant debts. They have a shrinking population, a shrinking tax base. And I think today what the governor is going to say is that this debt cannot be repaid, it wants to restructure its debts with its creditors.

　　Exactly how, nobody really knows. Puerto Rico cannot go to bankruptcy court, the way a city or a county can in the United States, so there's a lot of uncertainty ahead for Puerto Rico.

　　I think, however, the parallels to Greece only go so far. Puerto Rico is certainly not about to exit the dollar, and there's no other state that looks like Puerto Rico that is about to follow suit. And, moreover, although this is going to be a very tough time for Puerto Rico, the federal government has a very large presence there.

　　The federal government, for example, pays for Social Security. That will cushion some of the hardship that would otherwise fall on the Puerto Rican people.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And, as I'm talking to you, I'm being told the wire services are reporting Puerto Rico's governor is saying that he is going to be asking for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

　　So, we will be watching that. And thank you for bringing us up to date on both of these crises. Greg Ip, thanks.

　　GREG IP: Thank you.

1 commentator   

n.注释者，解说者；实况广播评论员

参考例句：

• He is a good commentator because he can get across the game.他能简单地解说这场比赛，是个好的解说者。
• The commentator made a big mistake during the live broadcast.在直播节目中评论员犯了个大错误。

2 arrears   

n.到期未付之债，拖欠的款项；待做的工作

参考例句：

• The payments on that car loan are in arrears by three months.购车贷款的偿付被拖欠了三个月。
• They are urgent for payment of arrears of wages.他们催讨拖欠的工钱。

3 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

4 creditor   

n.债仅人，债主，贷方

参考例句：

• The boss assigned his car to his creditor.那工头把自己的小汽车让与了债权人。
• I had to run away from my creditor whom I made a usurious loan.我借了高利贷不得不四处躲债。

5 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

8 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

9 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

10 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

12 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

13 chronically   

ad.长期地

参考例句：

• Similarly, any pigment nevus that is chronically irritated should be excised. 同样，凡是经常受慢性刺激的各种色素痣切勿予以切除。
• People chronically exposed to chlorine develop some degree of tolerance. 人长期接触氯气可以产生某种程度的耐受性。

14 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

15 regain   

vt.重新获得，收复，恢复

参考例句：

• He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
• The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。