PBS高端访谈:外交专家预测英国退欧对全球的影响

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: As we heard earlier, President Obama, during a trip to the United Kingdom in April, said that it should stay in the European Union.

　　Today, from Stanford University in California, the president gave his appraisal¹ of yesterday's outcome.

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: While the UK's relationship with EU will change, one thing that will not change is the special relationship that exists between our two nations. That will endure.

　　The EU will remain one of our indispensable partners. Our NATO alliance will remain a cornerstone of global security, and in a few weeks, we will be meeting in Warsaw for the NATO summit. And our shared values, including our commitment to democracy and pluralism and opportunity for all people in a globalized world, that will continue to unite all of us.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: The president spoke² with David Cameron by phone today, and, according to the White House, expressed regret that his — quote — "trusted partner and friend" decided³ to step aside as prime minister.

　　Mr. Obama also spoke with German Chancellor⁴ Angela Merkel. The two leaders said they regretted the UK's decision to leave the EU, but that they respected the will of the British people.

　　Now there are serious questions about how this break may change the current of global politics.

　　We explore what may lie ahead with Ivo Daalder. He's a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. He's now at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Richard Haass is a former State Department and top National Security Council official. He now runs the Council on Foreign Relations. And Margaret Warner, the "NewsHour"‘s chief foreign affairs correspondent.

　　And welcome to all three of you.

　　Richard Haass, I'm going to start with you.

　　We just heard two guests say that this could be the end of an era in terms of global economics. What about in terms of the politics of this globe?

　　外交专家预测英国退欧对全球的影响

　　RICHARD HAASS, President, Council on Foreign Relations: Well, I think historians will look back on this, and this will be something of a defining or dividing line in terms of the U.S.-UK relationship.

　　The president can use the rhetoric⁵ about it being special, but the fact is, it isn't very special anymore, and Britain won't have the capacity to be a real partner, particularly, as I think is likely, Scotland ultimately leaves and potentially even Northern Ireland leaves, so the United Kingdom becomes the disunited Kingdom.

　　It's also very bad for what's going on in Europe. It's not just economic integration⁶, but it's the entire European project, and now lots of other countries may decide to find their own path to distance themselves from Europe.

　　And that's a big part of the post-World War II architecture. It's one of the great accomplishments⁷ of modern diplomacy⁸, to make Europe stable and prosperous. So, I actually think the last 24 hours, whatever the voters had in mind, wanted message they wanted to send to elites⁹ and establishment, they set in motion a dynamic that will really detract from prosperity and stability, I think, in Europe and conceivably beyond.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Ivo Daalder, how do you see the political~ fallout?

　　IVO DAALDER, Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO: Well, I think it is potentially grave as Richard is implying.

　　I think what we're seeing is not only the return of nationalism in the United Kingdom, and particularly in England, but that nationalism can spread throughout the continent. And you have already seen calls in the Netherlands for a referendum there, for a Nexit. You have seen the same in France for a possible referendum for France to leave the Union.

　　And what you see is nations turning inward, becoming more nationalistic, wanting to be self-reliant, breaking away from the European Union. And, as a result, you get the kind of re-nationalization of European politics that we saw in the '20s and the '30s. And we know what the consequences of that was.

　　So there is the very real possibility of this spreading to the continent with more and more countries trying to leave the union, trying to turn inward, finding it difficult to achieve what they want to achieve, and therefore turning against each other.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, some of this sounds fairly dire¹⁰.

　　Margaret, I know you have been talking to a number of U.S. officials today. How do they see the effect of all this politically?

　　MARGARET WARNER: Very much the way Richard Haass and Ivo Daalder do.

　　Today, when he we heard what the president had to say, one official said to me, well, that was no drama Obama. But in the weeks leading up to this, as it got close, intelligence, diplomatic and defense¹¹ officials all were very — were filled with dread¹² really about the consequences of this.

　　I mean, nothing will change in terms of the UK being a major partner. I mean, this is a country that we share language and culture and world view. But, as Richard said, the concern is that it will be a less effective partner, that is, that Prime Minister Cameron and whoever succeeds him will be a distracted partner, that they will be potentially weaker because there will be — if there's a breakup in the British Isles¹³, and also a poorer partner, as one official said to me, who may not even be able to make the 2 percent threshold in NATO.

　　So — and, finally, of course, there's the whole question about whether it weakens U.S. diplomatic leverage¹⁴ in Europe. Now, some people feel that's been overstated. It wasn't terribly effective to work through Britain, say, to get Germany last year to soften¹⁵ the terms for Greece.

　　But, still, with Europe — with the UK having a seat at the table, the U.S. had at least eyes on the table, and that won't be true anymore.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Richard Haass, how much at this point depends on how this is handled by world leaders, whether it is by the British leadership, by people like Chancellor Merkel, President Obama? How much could that affect what happens?

　　RICHARD HAASS: Not all that much, I'm afraid, Judy.

　　In terms of the British, they have got really limited discretion¹⁶. It's very hard for a prime minister, for Mr. Cameron's successor, for the Parliament to somehow ignore the — quote, unquote — "will or voice" of the British people.

　　And then, looking at it from the other side, I don't think Brussels is going to necessarily tell the British, well, never mind, or somehow set a precedent¹⁷ that then 27 other countries might say, OK, we can then define our own relationship. Let's have an a la carte relationship that lets us choose A, B, C, but we will ignore D and F.

　　So I actually think, on both sides, the hands are relatively¹⁸ tied. And I know this sounds pessimistic. And there are people who are saying just maybe we can work through this and it wasn't that definitive¹⁹, but I actually don't think so.

　　And even if there is considerable voters' remorse²⁰ — and I expect there will be something of a collective hangover once the reality sinks in of the repercussions²¹ — I still don't think even the British side or the European side are going to have that much discretion.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Ivo Daalder, pick up on that. What do you see could determine whether this goes in an even darker, or more disturbing direction? What could keep things on track? I mean, who has the ability to determine which direction it goes?

　　IVO DAALDER: So, I agree that there is not much leverage or capacity in Britain, certainly with a lame-duck and now defeated prime minister still on the helm, and then a victor coming in who really doesn't know what needs to be done.

　　But I don't necessarily agree that there isn't any leverage or room for maneuver²², particularly with Chancellor Merkel and with the United States.

　　Stepping back, we have been at this 70 years. This is not just a European project. It's very much an American project, and we have been central for those 70 years to cajole the Europeans at particular times, when things were going the wrong way, to do the right thing and work together.

　　Our leverage isn't the same as it was in the '40s, and the '50s and the '60s, but it's still there. We're still a very critical partner. And I do believe that, if the United States, particularly working together with Chancellor Merkel, were to make it very clear that, yes, we accept the results of the voters, and, yes, there will be a different relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, but we still want the United Kingdom to be a fundamental, strong European power, and we want the Europeans and the United Kingdom and the United States to work closely together — we will do it in NATO.

　　We will do it on an ad hoc basis outside of it, but we need to work this out together in order to maintain this — the essential European project that was started 70 years ago. It's a defining moment for American diplomacy.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Margaret, in talking to U.S. officials, do they recognize that? Are they prepared to move in that direction?

　　MARGARET WARNER: Very much so, Judy.

　　As Ivo Daalder just said, the American security for 70 or 80 years has relied on a strong, prosperous, united Europe that we spent billions, trillions, I guess, through the Marshall Plan on forward, and diplomatic years and decades to help establish.

　　And then you recall, after the Soviet²³ Union collapsed²⁴, the way to get the Central and East European countries as part of this, with all their ethnic²⁵ conflicts and everything, was the carrot of EU membership. That was the incentive²⁶.

　　So it's been very, very important. What U.S. officials are hoping, going back to Richard Haass' point, about buyer's remorse, is that, if the train can be slowed down of a lot of other countries clamoring to do this, that other Europeans will witness what happens to Britain now, and it probably won't be a pretty sight in the medium term.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, there is much more to unfold.

　　And we want to thank all three of you for taking a look with us tonight.

　　Margaret, Margaret Warner here, Richard Haass, Ivo Daalder, we thank you.

　　RICHARD HAASS: Thank you.

1 appraisal   

n.对…作出的评价；评价，鉴定，评估

参考例句：

• What's your appraisal of the situation?你对局势是如何评估的？
• We need to make a proper appraisal of his work.对于他的工作我们需要做出适当的评价。

2 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

5 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

6 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

7 accomplishments   

n.造诣；完成( accomplishment的名词复数 )；技能；成绩；成就

参考例句：

• It was one of the President's greatest accomplishments. 那是总统最伟大的成就之一。
• Among her accomplishments were sewing,cooking,playing the piano and dancing. 她的才能包括缝纫、烹调、弹钢琴和跳舞。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

8 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

9 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

10 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

11 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

12 dread   

vt.担忧，忧虑；惧怕，不敢；n.担忧，畏惧

参考例句：

• We all dread to think what will happen if the company closes.我们都不敢去想一旦公司关门我们该怎么办。
• Her heart was relieved of its blankest dread.她极度恐惧的心理消除了。

13 isles   

岛( isle的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• the geology of the British Isles 不列颠群岛的地质
• The boat left for the isles. 小船驶向那些小岛。

14 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

15 soften   

v.(使)变柔软；(使)变柔和

参考例句：

• Plastics will soften when exposed to heat.塑料适当加热就可以软化。
• This special cream will help to soften up our skin.这种特殊的护肤霜有助于使皮肤变得柔软。

16 discretion   

n.谨慎；随意处理

参考例句：

• You must show discretion in choosing your friend.你择友时必须慎重。
• Please use your best discretion to handle the matter.请慎重处理此事。

17 precedent   

n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的

参考例句：

• Is there a precedent for what you want me to do?你要我做的事有前例可援吗？
• This is a wonderful achievement without precedent in Chinese history.这是中国历史上亘古未有的奇绩。

18 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

19 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

20 remorse   

n.痛恨，悔恨，自责

参考例句：

• She had no remorse about what she had said.她对所说的话不后悔。
• He has shown no remorse for his actions.他对自己的行为没有任何悔恨之意。

21 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 maneuver   

n.策略[pl.]演习；v.(巧妙)控制；用策略

参考例句：

• All the fighters landed safely on the airport after the military maneuver.在军事演习后，所有战斗机都安全降落在机场上。
• I did get her attention with this maneuver.我用这个策略确实引起了她的注意。

23 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

24 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

25 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

26 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。