PBS高端访谈:随着竞选接近尾声 希拉里已经在支持率上获得领先

 　　HARI SREENIVASAN, PBS NEWSHOUR WEEKEND ANCHOR: For more analysis of the presidential race, I'm joined now by "NewsHour Weekend" special correspondent Jeff Greenfield, who joins us from Santa Barbara, California.

　　So, Jeff, given the topsy-turvy nature of this campaign cycle and really that the news seems to be what happens off the trail not necessarily what they're doing as they campaign, are there still factors that could impact the election in the next couple of weeks?

　　JEFF GREENFIELD, NEWSHOUR WEEKEND SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: There are times when we've seen late-breaking events change the outcome. I think the one Reagan-Carter debate in 1980, which happened just a week before the election, helped turn that into a landslide¹. The campaign of George W. Bush has always argued that they lost the popular vote because of a late-breaking story about Bush's youthful drunk driving arrests that cost him, they think, a few million evangelicals.

　　But, by and large, this is the period — debates are over — when the race stabilizes², which is why a five-point lead with one week to go means much more than a five-point lead with a month to go. So, the hope of the Trump³ campaign is that there are these people who have not told the pollsters they are going to vote for Trump. They point to the Brexit results. The problem with that is that the Brexit polls were actually very, very close.

　　So, while it's possible, it's also possible that, you know, women who were on the fence may have been pushed to vote for Clinton by Trump's various comments. But by and large, you wouldn't want to bet the farm or even the chicken coop on a sudden late shift this late in the campaign.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Is there a possibility for over-confidence on the Clinton side? I mean, they say that "we're not taking anything for granted," but given where the majority of the polls are leaning, where the probability prediction markets and so forth⁴, and given that really the only poll that matters is the one that happens on November 8?

　　JEFF GREENFIELD:Well, you know, I've never understood who is supposed to stay home if the polls show a clear lead for one candidate. Is that that candidate's supporters who think, "Well, why bother, we've won" or is it the trailing candidate supporters who think it's lost, why bother"?

　　I think you also have to account for the fact that the ground game that we saw in the Obama campaigns and that is very much in evidence in the Clinton campaign, may counter that. That is, now that they believe that they have a clear lead, the Clinton campaign is going all out to pull out their voters for the down-ballot races — we're going to talk about that in a piece that will be on the air tomorrow. But it's very significant because the Clinton campaign knows that without the Senate in the Democratic hands, her role if she is elected president will be infinitely⁵ tougher.

　　So, I don't think over-confidence is going to play much of a role on November 8.

　　随着竞选接近尾声 希拉里已经在支持率上获得领先

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Without giving too much away about your piece tomorrow, how big is that coattail effect? How significant is that?

　　JEFF GREENFIELD: I can give you a definitive⁶ answer — but sometimes it is, and sometimes it isn't. When Lyndon Johnson won a landslide in 1964, he brought tons of Democrats⁷ in on down ballots⁸. Regan did the same thing in 1980. He helped control — get the GOP control of the Senate with 12 seats, won 33 seats in the House. But when Nixon won a historic landslide in '72, it had no impact. And my guess or theory if I want to fancy it up, is when an election is ideological⁹ it can have serious coattail effects because voters are saying we want a change in direction.

　　I believe that if Clinton wins it is largely a repudiation¹⁰ of Trump, rather than some commitment to her agenda. But as I said, the other thing that we know — and we'll talk about this tomorrow — is people split their tickets less. So, a huge win for Clinton is likely it to have a significant impact, particularly in that Senate race and maybe even in the House as well.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Is there going to be an event, at least up to this point, that helped define the race? I mean, whether it's debate performances or it's the leaked video of Donald Trump's comments or the paper cut after paper cut of WikiLeaks e-mails being released week after week?

　　JEFF GREENFIELD: The general theory among academics is that campaign events don't have a kind of hugely consequential¹¹ event. This year looks like it may challenge that conventional wisdom because the first debate really seems to have been the turning point. Trump had closed to within a point or two in virtually every poll, and once that first debate ended, Clinton's lead began to grow, and it has still grown and now stabilized¹² up to this point.

　　Remember, the fundamentals, the economic data and stuff, predicted a close race. So, this may be a case where an event actually had an impact.

　　One quick footnote: the economic fundamentals, Barack Obama's approval ratings have all moved in a direction in the last month or two that helps the Democrats. But I still think we're going to look back at that first debate as a critical factor.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Jeff Greenfield, many thanks.

　　JEFF GREENFIELD: Pleasure.

1 landslide   

n.(竞选中)压倒多数的选票；一面倒的胜利

参考例句：

• Our candidate is predicated to win by a landslide.我们的候选人被预言将以绝对优势取胜。
• An electoral landslide put the Labour Party into power in 1945.1945年工党以压倒多数的胜利当选执政。

2 stabilizes   

n.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的名词复数 )v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The broadbased attachment of the mesenteric root stabilizes the small bowel. 肠系膜根部基底宽阔的附着面使小肠得以稳定。 来自辞典例句
• The available supply of industrial product and produce stabilizes growth. 工业品与农产品的有效供给稳定增长。 来自互联网

3 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

4 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

5 infinitely   

adv.无限地，无穷地

参考例句：

• There is an infinitely bright future ahead of us.我们有无限光明的前途。
• The universe is infinitely large.宇宙是无限大的。

6 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

7 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

10 repudiation   

n.拒绝；否认；断绝关系；抛弃

参考例句：

• Datas non-repudiation is very important in the secure communication. 在安全数据的通讯中，数据发送和接收的非否认十分重要。 来自互联网
• There are some goals of Certified E-mail Protocol: confidentiality non-repudiation and fairness. 挂号电子邮件协议需要具备保密性、不可否认性及公平性。 来自互联网

11 consequential   

adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的

参考例句：

• She was injured and suffered a consequential loss of earnings.她受了伤因而收入受损。
• This new transformation is at least as consequential as that one was.这一新的转变至少和那次一样重要。

12 stabilized   

v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
• His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》