PBS高端访谈:美国总统竞选地图告诉你谁会最终胜选

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Tomorrow on Election¹ Day, we will be following a lot of numbers and data here at the "NewsHour." A big part of that are the so-called² exit polls⁴. They're also part of what's used to project winners before the final real vote counts come in.

　　We thought we'd talk about how that works⁵ and take a look at the all-important electoral vote map, with our friend Domenico Montanaro. He's NPR's lead editor for politics.

　　Domenico, it's great to see you. Great to be here.

　　So, let's look at this map. This is your map, the NPR map. Tell us what it shows.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO, NPR: Well, first of all, going into Election Day, Hillary Clinton quite clearly has the advantage.

　　She could get over 270 electoral votes, 274 by our count, because I moved Nevada from our last map to now lean Democratic⁶, where it had been in tossup. I moved New Hampshire back to tossup. So, when you look at it here, just all of the states that are leaning towards Clinton's way, if those Democratic base voters hold and show up to vote, Hillary Clinton would win.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: This is even without the so-called tossup states?

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Absolutely.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Which you haven't even put those in his or her category.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, think about the fact that you could have somebody win without Florida and Ohio and Iowa and North Carolina. Like, that's pretty unheard of in recent modern American political history.

　　But because of demographic change and where we're at in this election, that's totally possible.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: What she could do.

　　So, then, If that's the case, what is Donald Trump⁷'s path? What does he have to do?

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, clearly, Donald Trump is going to have to break off a piece of that blue wall.

　　We were thinking possibly it was in Nevada, maybe it could be New Hampshire. It wouldn't be enough for him right now. He have to pick off a state like Nevada. But it's why you have seen now he's barnstorming the country in what are traditionally lean-Democratic states, places that have gone Democratic in a lot of the last six elections⁸ — in all of the last six elections, places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.

　　They feel better about Michigan, but the Clinton campaign is saying that they're still up there. And you have President Obama going back to make sure that African-American voters get out to vote. They feel like if they get their voters out, then they will win.

　　Trump would have to pick off one of those cinder⁹ blocks. If he can do it, all bets¹⁰ are off.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, when you say the big blue wall, we're talking about that Upper Midwest. And we see that in light blue color.

　　Domenico, I want to turn you now to talk about exit polls. That's something that comes up every election year. Remind us, what are they, who runs them?

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, exit polls are commissioned by the national media, the big broadcast organizations, some print organizations like The New York Times, The Washington Post, ABC, NBC, CNN, for example.

　　They pay a group called Edison Research, which does — creates what's called the National Exit Poll³ Consortium. It's a lot of money. The public broadcasters, we should say, PBS, NPR, we're not participating in it this time around. So when you see those numbers, they will be coming from that consortium.

　　美国总统竞选地图告诉你谁会最终胜选

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And they — what they do is, they have, what, thousands of people who go out around the country and interview people after they have left the polls.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: That's right.

　　You will see about 100,000 people as part of the sample. And why that's really amazing is that, when you think about a normal national poll, there's about 1,000 people sampled, with about 3.5 percent margin¹¹ of error.

　　You're talking about 100,000 people over the entire country, so much smaller margin of error when it comes to that. It would be every fourth person who leaves the exit polling¹² place, an exit pollster would try to approach them and try to get them to take a questionnaire, fill it out and then that information is relayed back.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Domenico, we have heard so much this year about how big the early vote is, something like, what, 40-some million people voting early. How do they measure those votes, or absentee votes, for example?

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, when it comes to exit polling early voters, they will do a phone, a normal phone poll. So they will call a place like Washington state or Oregon or Colorado, where they do a lot of mail-only ballots¹³, so that they can get demographic information to plug into the exit poll.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And then so those news organizations that are part of this, they're the ones, including the Associated Press, which we at the "NewsHour" will be relying on, they take that information, and then how do they turn that into a projected winner?

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: And us at NPR, too, we should say, are relying on the Associated Press' calls.

　　What they do is they take three different things. They take historical data, they take the exit polls, and they take actual results. What they will do with exit polling information is, they will go into places that are barometer¹⁴ precincts, for example. And when they get some actual information or they get exit poll information that shows the direction of where that's headed, then they can make a call.

　　Now, I should say one thing. When you see a lot of the places that call a state with zero percent in or 1 percent in, it's very rarely that state that gets it wrong, because, historically, that's usually a state that's pretty far apart and the exit polls back it up.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: In other words, a state that's been reliably Republican¹⁵ or reliably Democratic.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yes, like a New York or California or something.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And those are the states that we expect to be called as soon as the polls close, or very shortly after.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: That's right.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: It's the ones where it's close where we will be waiting and waiting and maybe waiting.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Right, in those states too close to call. And if they are too close to call, you're looking at later in the night, 11:00 at the very least most likely, because that's when it's been called in the last two elections.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: We can't wait. We're all on the edge of our seats.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: It's almost over.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Domenico Montanaro, NPR, thank you so much.

　　DOMENICO MONTANARO: Thank you.

1 election   

n.选举，选择权；当选

参考例句：

• There is no doubt but that he will win the election.毫无疑问，他将在竞选中获胜。
• The government will probably fall at the coming election.在即将到来的大选中，该政府很可能要垮台。

2 so-called   

adj.所谓的，号称的

参考例句：

• These were the so-called mainframe machines.它们被称为主机。
• Let's see what this so-called button does.让我们来看看为什么这个按钮叫这个名字。

3 poll   

n.民意测验，民意调查，选举投票

参考例句：

• The result of the poll won't be known until midnight.选举结果要到午夜才能揭晓。
• They expected a heavy poll.他们期望会有很高的投票数。

4 polls   

民意调查( poll的名词复数 )； 民意调查的结果； 投票选举； 投票数

参考例句：

• The two candidates are in a dead heat in the polls. 两名候选人在民意测验中势均力敌。
• Opinion polls indicated a two-thirds majority in favour of ratification of the treaty. 民意调查表明2/3 的多数票赞成批准这个条约。

5 works   

n.作品，著作；工厂，活动部件，机件

参考例句：

• We expect writers to produce more and better works.我们期望作家们写出更多更好的作品。
• The novel is regarded as one of the classic works.这篇小说被公认为是最优秀的作品之一。

6 democratic   

adj.民主的；民主主义的，有民主精神的

参考例句：

• Their country has democratic government.他们国家实行民主政体。
• He has a democratic work-style.他作风民主。

7 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

8 elections   

n.选举，当选，推举( election的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Republicans got shellacked in the elections. 共和党在选举中一败涂地。
• He emerged victorious in the elections. 他在竞选中脱颖而出获得胜利。

9 cinder   

n.余烬，矿渣

参考例句：

• The new technology for the preparation of superfine ferric oxide from pyrite cinder is studied.研究了用硫铁矿烧渣为原料，制取超细氧化铁红的新工艺。
• The cinder contains useful iron,down from producing sulphuric acid by contact process.接触法制硫酸的矿渣中含有铁矿。

10 bets   

v.敢说，八成儿( bet的第三人称单数 )；打赌(on,against,with)；敢断定；敢说

参考例句：

• Place your bets now—the race begins in half an hour! 现在可以下赌注——赛事于半小时后开始。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• But he did not enter all the losing bets in the accounts-book. 但输家交来的赠金，他并不全部登记入册。 来自辞典例句

11 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

12 polling   

n.投票

参考例句：

• a week before polling day 投票日前一周（的那天）
• You can cast your vote at the local polling station. 你可以在当地的投票站投票。

13 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

15 republican   

n.拥护共和政体的人； adj.共和政体的，（Republican）共和党人，（Republican）共和党的

参考例句：

• Some families have been republican for generations.有些家庭世代都支持共和党。
• A third candidate has entered the contest for the Republican nomination.第三个候选人已经加入角逐共和党提名的行列。