PBS高端访谈:关于美联储上调2017年利率的展望

 　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Today's interest rate hike by the Fed marks just the second time it has raised rates since the 2008 financial crisis and the major recession that followed.

　　So, when Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen announces a move like that, even one that's widely expected, it is still a big deal.

　　Jeffrey Brown continues.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Over the last year, the Fed had signaled several times that a rate hike was imminent¹, only to back away as economic growth stayed sluggish².

　　Today, though, the move by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors was unanimous, restarting a move upward from historically low interest rates.

　　Why now, and what is the Fed seeing?

　　We turn once again to Diane Swonk, an economist³ with her own consulting firm in Chicago.

　　Diane, welcome back.

　　Start there. Why now? What is the Fed seeing?

　　DIANE SWONK, Diane Swonk Economics: Well, we are seeing some inflation.

　　And the economy — the Fed is sort of looking at things getting stronger, and it's an acknowledgment that the U.S. economy is stronger. It's actually raised rates. I think they could have done it in September. There was this postponement⁴ to December. It's more than time for the Fed to raise rates.

　　And, in fact, I think Janet Yellen also signaled very clearly that this is a turning point for the Fed. They not only — not are we just seeing a forecast of rate hikes next year. I think we're going to see much more than one.

　　Now, it only takes two to get more than one. I think we will get the three that the Fed is expecting.

　　关于美联储上调2017年利率的展望

　　JEFFREY BROWN: They're seeing an economy that is growing, perhaps even too fast, enough that they want to raise rates. That's after an election in which many Americans saw an economy that wasn't growing fast enough for them.

　　DIANE SWONK: It actually isn't an acknowledgment that the economy is growing too fast.

　　The monetary⁵ policy is still very, very easy. To think of this, you kind of think of it as the Fed is not taking the punch away from the party. They're just not spiking⁶ it anymore. They're worried about some people getting a little tipsy on the side, some real estate bubbles they're very concerned about in the commercial real estate market.

　　And although they didn't state it explicitly⁷, the run-up in the stock market that we have seen since the election has a lot of attributes of a bubble. And there is certainly going to be some concern about that within the circle for the Fed.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Well, and, of course, the big question is to what extent does the election of Donald Trump⁸ changes the game, right, and changes the economic outlook, and, therefore, the outlook for interest rates, with tax hikes or stimulus⁹.

　　What did Janet Yellen say about that today?

　　DIANE SWONK: Well, clearly, there are some within the Fed — there are participants at the meeting that actually did put that into their forecasts. And most of them didn't.

　　And I think she was very cautious to say the cloud of uncertainty¹⁰ regarding policy, because the Fed is in the situation that they have got to react to actual policy, not promises of policy changes. And the spectrum¹¹ of what could happen are both bad and good, depending on whether they're protectionist policies that might raise inflation without boosting growth or whether they're pro-stimulus, pro-growth policies that will raise inflation by actually raising growth.

　　The spectrum is very vague. And we don't have any policies yet to react to. So, I think that's very important. The other issue that's very clear, Chair Yellen made a real attempt to assert the Fed's independence without provoking the new president-elect, because she was really sort of walking on eggshells in an effort to, this is what is expected, this is what we're doing, but didn't want to provoke President-elect Trump, because he did criticize her very much on the campaign trail.

　　The people they're talking about replacing — putting into two seats in the Federal Reserve that are currently are going to be very hostile to Chair Yellen. And she asserted that, listen, she's not going anywhere. Her term goes until next year.

　　And she even intimated that she might stick around longer and fulfill¹² her term. We have only had one Fed chair ever that, once they were done with their term as Fed chair, stayed on as governor.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: He was, indeed, very critical of her. And, as you say, she just has one year.

　　So, you're thinking there is the possibility here of some kind of coming dispute, open dispute?

　　DIANE SWONK: I think there's going to be a lot of open dispute.

　　The two Fed chairs that are going to be filled are going to be filled by people who don't like what this Federal Reserve has done, and they're going to be critical of it, and they're going to be, in fact, confirmed by being critical.

　　Now, there may be buyer's remorse¹³ later on if they raise rates a lot, and these are people who end up taking over the Fed, because they're going to replace not only two Fed seats. They're also going to have the attempt to replace the chair and replace the vice¹⁴ chair within about a year-and-a-half.

　　So, President-elect Trump is going to have a lot of impact on the Fed at the same time that Congress is looking to have oversight¹⁵ to be able to make the Fed sort of acquiesce¹⁶ to political cycles, instead of economic cycles.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Diane Swonk, thank you very much.

　　DIANE SWONK: Thank you.

1 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

2 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 postponement   

n.推迟

参考例句：

• He compounded with his creditors for a postponement of payment. 他与债权人达成协议延期付款。
• Rain caused the postponement of several race-meetings. 几次赛马大会因雨延期。

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 spiking   

n.尖峰形成v.加烈酒于( spike的现在分词 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。 来自辞典例句
• We could be spiking our own guns. 我们可能要遭到失败。 来自辞典例句

7 explicitly   

ad.明确地，显然地

参考例句：

• The plan does not explicitly endorse the private ownership of land. 该计划没有明确地支持土地私有制。
• SARA amended section 113 to provide explicitly for a right to contribution. 《最高基金修正与再授权法案》修正了第123条，清楚地规定了分配权。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

8 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

9 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

10 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

11 spectrum   

n.谱，光谱，频谱；范围，幅度，系列

参考例句：

• This is a kind of atomic spectrum.这是一种原子光谱。
• We have known much of the constitution of the solar spectrum.关于太阳光谱的构成，我们已了解不少。

12 fulfill   

vt.履行，实现，完成；满足，使满意

参考例句：

• If you make a promise you should fulfill it.如果你许诺了，你就要履行你的诺言。
• This company should be able to fulfill our requirements.这家公司应该能够满足我们的要求。

13 remorse   

n.痛恨，悔恨，自责

参考例句：

• She had no remorse about what she had said.她对所说的话不后悔。
• He has shown no remorse for his actions.他对自己的行为没有任何悔恨之意。

14 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

15 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

16 acquiesce   

vi.默许，顺从，同意

参考例句：

• Her parents will never acquiesce in such an unsuitable marriage.她的父母决不会答应这门不相宜的婚事。
• He is so independent that he will never acquiesce.他很有主见，所以绝不会顺从。