PBS高端访谈:朝鲜从乌克兰一家工厂获得火箭引擎

 　　We return to the North Korea story. Moments ago, the regime's news agency said its leader, Kim Jong-un, has been briefed on plans for a missile test that would splash down near the U.S. territory of Guam.

　　And, as we reported earlier, Defense¹ Secretary Mattis vowed² today to shoot down any missile fired.

　　But where the regime is getting the engines for its new missiles is the subject of provocative³ new report. Its author says a factory in Ukraine is the source.

　　We go to special correspondent Nick Schifrin for more.

　　Joining me now is Michael Elleman. He's a senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former consultant⁴ to the Pentagon.

　　And Melissa Hanham is a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute.

　　And thank you both for being here.Mike, let's start with you, because you wrote the paper.

　　You come out with a notion that North Korea has advanced from middle-range missiles to ICBMs fast than any country has.

　　And your notion is they got technology, they stole the technology, specifically from Eastern Ukraine. What's the evidence?

　　The engines they are using for the longer-range missiles has an appearance that's very similar to a well-known engine family that originates in Russia and Ukraine.

　　And I have talked with sources that are -- that have been to some facilities in Ukraine in the recent time,

　　and they have seen the modifications⁵ that would have to be made from this existing engine of Russian-Ukrainian heritage to the one we see in the North Korean missiles.

　　And that happened rather recently, and one even bragged⁶ about having made the transformation⁷ or the remodeling of the pumping system.

　　And then you look at the performance characteristics of the engine in the North Korean missiles, you get almost a precise match of capability⁸.

　　And when you combine all those, it leads me to believe that sources in either Ukraine or Russia allowed these engines to make their way to North Korea.

　　Now, Melissa, I want to turn to you. This paper is not without its critics.

　　And you and I have discussed whether the paper actually underestimates whether North Korea itself can have built this engine, rather than have stolen it.

　　It's more likely that they are perhaps borrowing some design influence, but not actually importing engines at all.

　　I think it's really common to believe that North Korea is backwards⁹, that, you know, one of the common memes we see is that its lights are off at night.

　　Really, what's happened in North Korea is that they have marshaled their resources, limited though they are, towards their military program.

　　And the new engines that we are seeing now have marked differences from others,

　　and, in many cases, I think it is safe to say that they are largely indigenous¹⁰, though that there are commonalities between all engines.

　　And, Mike, what's wrong with that? Is North Korea not capable of building these kinds of engine, or perhaps there are Ukrainian-Russian workers inside of North Korea?

　　Well, we haven't seen an indigenously¹¹ developed engine before this.

　　Most countries start with smaller engines and slowly build up to much larger ones.

　　The one we're talking about here that's powering their long-range missiles generates the equivalent of 40 tons of thrust, which is an enormous amount of energy.

　　One would expect them to start off with smaller engines in an indigenous design.

　　So, when I look at those things, it's just hard for me to believe that suddenly the first engine North Korea has ever made produces this much thrust and it's successful, by the way, in each one of these tests.

　　Mike, I have talked to members of the intelligence community today.

　　They actually echo Melissa's argument that North Korea has more capacity than you give them credit for.

　　And the Ukrainian government, as you know, has come out against your report today.

　　Alexander Turchinov, he's the secretary of National Security and Defense Council.

　　He said: "Ukraine has never supplied rocket engines and any missile technology to North Korea.

　　We believe that this anti-Ukrainian campaign" -- that's a reference to you -- "was triggered by Russian secret services to cover their participation¹² in the North Korean nuclear and missile programs."

　　Is Ukraine wrong, or it possible the Ukrainian government doesn't know?

　　Well, I would argue that they don't know.

　　In my article, I specifically say that it's very unlikely that the government itself was involved.

　　I would be very surprised if even executives from the Yuzhmash factory were involved.

　　I think this is more likely to be rogue¹³ actors. There are a number of elicit¹⁴ arms traders throughout the former Soviet¹⁵ Union, including Russia, including Ukraine.

　　Let's not forget that the location of the Yuzhmash factories is only a couple hundred kilometers from where there is an active battle going between Ukraine and the separatists in Eastern Ukraine.

　　And this often gives rise to a lot of illicit¹⁶ markets. So, I'm not surprised the Ukrainian government is upset about the reporting,

　　but I'm just trying to report on the facts as I know them. And I can assure you I'm not working for the Russian government.

　　Melissa, wrap this up for us quickly. Is there any fear, from your perspective, that the longer we assume the North Koreans are backwards or not capable, the quicker we run out of time?

　　The Chamjin missile factory is famous for production of missile parts.

　　And their procurement¹⁷ activities over the last few years have definitely shown that they have imported the machine tools that they need in order to produce these types of engines and other parts of missiles that are needed.

　　I don't know where you would get a Nodong engine if they were not produced locally in North Korea, for example.

　　Many of the photographs of Kim Jong-un visiting the facilities are underground. And I think that's why there isn't a lot of talk about them, but they do exist.

　　And I think, as you mentioned earlier, the longer we wait in order to engage North Korea in negotiation¹⁸, the more likely their technical capabilities¹⁹ and the sheer numbers of these missiles and trucks will go up.

　　Melissa Hanham, Mike Elleman, thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. undefined

1 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

2 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

3 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。

4 consultant   

n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生

参考例句：

• He is a consultant on law affairs to the mayor.他是市长的一个法律顾问。
• Originally,Gar had agreed to come up as a consultant.原来，加尔只答应来充当我们的顾问。

5 modifications   

n.缓和( modification的名词复数 )；限制；更改；改变

参考例句：

• The engine was pulled apart for modifications and then reassembled. 发动机被拆开改型，然后再组装起来。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The original plan had undergone fairly extensive modifications. 原计划已经作了相当大的修改。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 bragged   

v.自夸，吹嘘( brag的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He bragged to his friends about the crime. 他向朋友炫耀他的罪行。
• Mary bragged that she could run faster than Jack. 玛丽夸口说她比杰克跑得快。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

8 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

9 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

10 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

11 indigenously   

adv.本土

参考例句：

12 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

13 rogue   

n.流氓；v.游手好闲

参考例句：

• The little rogue had his grandpa's glasses on.这淘气鬼带上了他祖父的眼镜。
• They defined him as a rogue.他们确定他为骗子。

14 elicit   

v.引出,抽出,引起

参考例句：

• It was designed to elicit the best thinking within the government. 机构的设置是为了在政府内部集思广益。
• Don't try to elicit business secrets from me. I won't tell you anything. 你休想从我这里套问出我们的商业机密, 我什么都不会告诉你的。

15 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

16 illicit   

adj.非法的，禁止的，不正当的

参考例句：

• He had an illicit association with Jane.他和简曾有过不正当关系。
• Seizures of illicit drugs have increased by 30% this year.今年违禁药品的扣押增长了30%。

17 procurement   

n.采购；获得

参考例句：

• He is in charge of the procurement of materials.他负责物资的采购。
• More and more,human food procurement came to have a dominant effect on their evolution.人类获取食物愈来愈显著地影响到人类的进化。

18 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

19 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓