PBS高端访谈:朝鲜方面再次试射导弹

Judy Woodruff: Now: North Korea tests a new missile, rattling¹ nerves in Asia and here in Washington. William Brangham has the story.

William Brangham: The North Korean news anchor hailed the latest launch, delivering a statement from the nation's leader on state TV.

Woman: (Through interpreter) Kim Jong-un declared with pride that now we have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building rocket power.

William Brangham: The broadcast showed an image of Kim signing the order to launch. The new missile, dubbed² the Hwasong-15, flew farther than any North Korean rocket had before. It soared to an altitude of nearly 2,800 miles, then dove into the Sea of Japan, within what's known as Japan's Economic Exclusion³ Zone. That means, if shot on a flatter trajectory⁴, the missile could have flown some 8,000 miles, reaching Washington, D.C. It remains⁵ unclear if the North Koreans have figured out how to either fit a nuclear warhead onto the missile or created one that could survive reentry into Earth's atmosphere. But on the streets of the capital, Pyongyang, North Koreans played their dutiful part, cheering the announcement.

Man:(through interpreter) The missile launch has brought us another victory. Our success has once more cracked down on the U.S., which is unable to see its coming death.

William Brangham: South Korea responded with its own drill, firing off missiles into the sea. And President Moon Jae-in spoke⁶ with President Trump⁷ by phone. His spokesman said he'd warned the situation could get out of control.

Park Soo-hyun: (through interpreter) President Moon stressed that we should prevent a situation in which North Korea misjudges the current situation and threatens us with nuclear weapons, or a situation in which the U.S. takes into consideration preemptive strikes.

William Brangham: Mr. Trump also spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Afterward⁸, Mr. Trump tweeted that new sanctions on the North would be forthcoming. The Chinese Foreign Ministry⁹ said Xi is gravely concerned. This afternoon, the U.N. Security Council held another emergency meeting on the North's continued defiance¹⁰ of U.N. resolutions. So what does this latest launch mean for U.S. diplomacy¹¹? For that, we turn to Joel Wit. He was part of the team that negotiated a nuclear agreement with North Korea during the Clinton administration. He's now a senior fellow at the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University and founder¹² of 38 North, a Web site that focuses on Korea. So, Joel Wit, how concerned should we be about this latest launch?

Joel Wit: Well, of course we should be concerned because North Korea is obviously moving to the development of a missile that can reach the United States, but this is not new. This is the third test they have conducted, and we have known for some time that they are moving down this road. So it just reconfirms what's going on. And it's, of course, very dangerous.

William Brangham: The North Koreans argue that they are now a fully-formed nuclear power. Is that true? And, if so, what does that do to our diplomacy?

Joel Wit: Well, the reality is North Korea has had nuclear weapons for some time now, and they have also been able to put them on missiles that can reach other countries in the region, like our allies South Korea and Japan. And so now they are expanding their reach by developing missiles that can reach the United States. So, they have been a nuclear weapons state for some time now. They have been a threat to other countries in the region, and now they're going to be a threat to the United States.

William Brangham: Does that provide an opportunity, though, to open up talks of some sort that might be productive?

Joel Wit: Well, that's a very good question, and it sounds counter intuitive, but, in fact, North Korean policy is based on creating a nuclear shield so they can develop their economy. So if the North Koreans now feel that they have developed enough of a nuclear shield, they may want to pivot¹³ to better relations with the outside world in order to somehow develop their economy. And that gives us leverage¹⁴ over them to try to get them to move towards stopping their programs, reducing them and, in the very long term, getting rid of their nuclear programs, in return for gradually building economic and other ties with them. So it's quite possible they have reached the pivot point now, although we will never know unless we really sit down and discuss this.

William Brangham: If you were talking to the president of the United States and his national security team, what would you counsel them to do today?

Joel Wit: What I would say is that, sure, you know, we should be imposing¹⁵ more sanctions on North Korea because of their bad behavior, and, sure, we need to prepare for the possibility that there will be some military confrontation¹⁶. But, at the same time, we need to seriously explore the possibility of a peaceful way out of this confrontation, and that means a serious dialogue with North Korea face to face. We need to sit down with them and discuss issues of mutual¹⁷ concern. And, of course, one of those will be North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

William Brangham: How likely do you think those talks are?

Joel Wit: Well, right now — usually, when I talk to people, I lay out three scenarios¹⁸. One is that there will be a military conflict on the peninsula, whether because of miscalculation or deliberate. Second is that the United States will back down, that President Trump and the administration will have to back down from their threats. And third is there will be a diplomatic track that will be pursued. And I would say the chances of diplomacy right now are anywhere from 10 to 20 percent and the other two are much higher.

William Brangham: Joel Wit from Johns Hopkins University, thank you very much.

Joel Wit: Thank you.

1 rattling   

adj. 格格作响的, 活泼的, 很好的 adv. 极其, 很, 非常 动词rattle的现在分词

参考例句：

• This book is a rattling good read. 这是一本非常好的读物。
• At that same instant,a deafening explosion set the windows rattling. 正在这时，一声震耳欲聋的爆炸突然袭来，把窗玻璃震得当当地响。

2 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 exclusion   

n.拒绝，排除，排斥，远足，远途旅行

参考例句：

• Don't revise a few topics to the exclusion of all others.不要修改少数论题以致排除所有其他的。
• He plays golf to the exclusion of all other sports.他专打高尔夫球，其他运动一概不参加。

4 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

5 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

8 afterward   

adv.后来；以后

参考例句：

• Let's go to the theatre first and eat afterward. 让我们先去看戏，然后吃饭。
• Afterward,the boy became a very famous artist.后来，这男孩成为一个很有名的艺术家。

9 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

10 defiance   

n.挑战，挑衅，蔑视，违抗

参考例句：

• He climbed the ladder in defiance of the warning.他无视警告爬上了那架梯子。
• He slammed the door in a spirit of defiance.他以挑衅性的态度把门砰地一下关上。

11 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

12 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

13 pivot   

v.在枢轴上转动；装枢轴，枢轴；adj.枢轴的

参考例句：

• She is the central pivot of creation and represents the feminine aspect in all things.她是创造的中心枢轴，表现出万物的女性面貌。
• If a spring is present,the hand wheel will pivot on the spring.如果有弹簧，手轮的枢轴会装在弹簧上。

14 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

15 imposing   

adj.使人难忘的，壮丽的，堂皇的，雄伟的

参考例句：

• The fortress is an imposing building.这座城堡是一座宏伟的建筑。
• He has lost his imposing appearance.他已失去堂堂仪表。

16 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

17 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

18 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓